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NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 2

We continue this week by sprinkling here and there merely to make watching the games interesting. We continue to gather data to make these algorithms more reliable. Regardless, last week was an unofficial 2-1 ATS which isn't bad. This week I like the big underdogs to cover, and teams with much hype to come back to reality.

- Tampa makes this a game and covers on primetime.
- New England's historic 19 points on the road is faded
- Arizona is horrible but Baltimore doesn't deserve 14 points, this is an over-reaction to week 1
- Dallas is hyped up and 85% of the bets are going to it. Play contrarian.
- Chicago's offense is horrible and won't cut it on the road vs Denver
- Even without Hill, KC dominates. Oakland is week-1 hyped.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -6.50 2.50 8.99 71.79
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 18.50 10.40 -8.13 70.59
ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE -13.50 -4.60 8.94 66.67
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON 5.00 -11.00 -15.97 59.56
CHICAGO @ DENVER 2.50 2.50 -0.00 58.82
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND 7.00 8.10 1.13 25.00
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -3.00 1.30 4.34 53.57
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA 1.50 3.70 2.18 53.33
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI -1.50 -1.60 -0.08 52.50
NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS -2.50 -6.10 -3.61 50.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE -3.00 -0.90 2.06 48.29
SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH -4.00 0.70 4.73 47.94
LA CHARGERS @ DETROIT 2.50 0.20 -2.26 46.66
BUFFALO @ NY GIANTS 1.50 -2.80 -4.28 45.46
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS 6.00 -8.90 -14.94 NA
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -9.00 2.90 11.89 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1

2018 started rough and all the way through until the playoffs. Hopefully this year we pick up better on trends we enjoy riding. The playoffs was a lot about experience, we ran that and it paid off. There's a lot going on and a lot of changes. As always, we let the first few weeks sink in some data. But if you do want to bet a few with emotion, at least here is what the model spit out based on last year.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI 7.0 3.20 -3.76 65.22
HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS -7.0 -5.40 1.57 59.65
LA RAMS @ CAROLINA 2.0 9.70 7.66 55.00
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND -5.5 0.20 5.67 55.56
DENVER @ OAKLAND 2.5 -1.20 -3.69 55.10
CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE -9.5 -7.20 2.27 54.10
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO -3.0 -0.50 2.51 52.17
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS -7.0 -0.90 6.09 52.17
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA -10.0 -1.30 8.67 51.72
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 10.50 6.95 50.00
BUFFALO @ NY JETS -3.0 -5.40 -2.42 49.67
DETROIT @ ARIZONA 2.5 -2.90 -5.40 49.65
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA -4.0 5.80 9.80 44.78
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND -5.5 3.20 8.65 44.78
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY -1.0 -2.40 -1.40 41.82
INDIANAPOLIS @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -6.70 0.75 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.