NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

The first 3 weeks have been as expected, close to breaking even. Although I'll admit to unsafely betting some of these games, I recommend my readers to stay away at least from using these picks. The reason being mostly that my models look at team level data, so on new seasons or when a key player is out (e.g. Big Ben, Brees, Newton, etc.), then the analytics are more about understanding how many points is that key player worth. That's one I haven't done, but it'd be interesting to see. Regardless, it's alway fun to look at the results and put some thoughts behind it.

Indianapolis -7
Indi beat Tennesse by 2 and Atlanta by 3 and now they're at home. You know I love some strong vs, weak that's undervalued.

Patriots -7.5
More of strong vs. weak. Patriots are 59% ATS since 2000 (100+ games) against teams in their division. 3-0 Buffalo over valued against the best Defense? Wait what? The Patriots have Tom Brady and the best defense? Get the f&*$ out of here, all in.

Jaguars +3
Denver sucks and their defense is especially horrible. I'm not betting Joe Flacco will throw a Hail Mary.

Giants -3
I was going to remove this game bc of Eli. But after seeing Washington on MNF, I wanted to fade them again especially on short rest. Is Daniel Jones for real? idk but he's getting the hype. Let's go!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS	-6.5	-10.6	-4.06	61.90
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	7.5	9.0	1.51	60.00
JACKSONVILLE @ DENVER	-3.0	1.3	4.34	58.57
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-3.0	-9.8	-6.78	58.25
TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA	-4.0	-3.6	0.38	58.09
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	-6.0	-2.48	52.54
TAMPA BAY @ LA RAMS	-9.0	-13.0	-4.00	52.50
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT	6.5	-1.20	-7.75	52.50
LA CHARGERS @ MIAMI	15.0	10.4	-4.62	51.42
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	5.0	1.2	-3.83	50.82
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	-2.0	1.5	3.54	50.00
PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY	-4.0	5.6	9.58	46.15
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-6.5	-5.9	0.64	45.91
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON	-4.0	4.2	8.17	NA
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS	2.5	-4.9	-7.44	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3

Great week last week overall! As I said in my previous post, the next few picks will be available here but from week 5 forward they're going to Rokfin. Here's the podcast between me and high stakes poker player Mr. Augustine.

There are 4 games this week with backup QBs. There is not one analysis I can do to figure it out. So I'm going to give you the qualitative view for a few of these games in case you want to sprinkle them (bad idea!).

- The Chargers D will get to DeShaun Watson many times.
- Carolina bounces back with a win over Arizona. Sharps agree not the public.
- Keep fading the Bears, especially if Trubisky is road favorite
- The Rams are the better team and 3 points relies too much on Cleveland hype.
- The backup QB for PIT Mason Rudolph grinds according to ESPN. He'll figure out a way to win.
- Mariotta as a road favorite on TNF vs Mineshew who isn't that bad. Play contrarian go with JAC.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
HOUSTON @ LA CHARGERS	-3	-13.2	-10.20	62.18
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA	-1.5	1.0	2.46	61.00
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON	4	-7.2	-11.24	59.36
LA RAMS @ CLEVELAND	3	7.5	4.55	58.15
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY	-6.5	3.0	9.48	54.67
OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA	-8.5	-10.0	-1.46	54.90
ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS	-1.5	3.2	4.74	53.85
DENVER @ GREEN BAY	-7.5	-3.8	3.73	53.62
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA	-6.5	-2.5	3.97	53.62
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-23	-9.9	13.14	53.14
MIAMI @ DALLAS	-21.5	-9.3	12.16	53.14
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO	-6	-3.1	2.88	50.65
NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY	-6.5	-10.5	-3.99	49.15
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	1.5	-3.9	-5.40	48.67
PITTSBURGH @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	1.8	8.28	NA
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE	-4	-4.1	-0.09	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

Joining Rokfin

Rokfin is the first platform to pay creators the full value of the digital network. While other digital networks like Netflix, Spotify, YouTube hoard the value of network effects, Rokfin shares the value of the network with creators. Users pay $9.99/month to access ALL the premium content from on the site from ALL creators including NFLPickles, fighter Ben Askren, comedian Adam Hunter, progressive Niko House and my favorite magician Tom Interval.

Rokfin uses the RAE token in order to pay creators the value of the network. Blockchain technology is ideal to share the value, but also by putting all the data in a blockchain, everyone can see what's going on. Digital networks nowadays control all the data and creators don't have all the cards when they are at the negotiating table. We're all somewhat involved with bitcoin in this world, and Rokfin has found a valuable way to use blockchain to run a real business. Find out more about the RAE token here.

By endorsing my channel on Rokfin, you:

1) help me continue doing my passion.
2) get access to all the cool stuff on the site.
3) access post season NFL Pickles picks

Please help me continue doing what I love...

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 2

We continue this week by sprinkling here and there merely to make watching the games interesting. We continue to gather data to make these algorithms more reliable. Regardless, last week was an unofficial 2-1 ATS which isn't bad. This week I like the big underdogs to cover, and teams with much hype to come back to reality.

- Tampa makes this a game and covers on primetime.
- New England's historic 19 points on the road is faded
- Arizona is horrible but Baltimore doesn't deserve 14 points, this is an over-reaction to week 1
- Dallas is hyped up and 85% of the bets are going to it. Play contrarian.
- Chicago's offense is horrible and won't cut it on the road vs Denver
- Even without Hill, KC dominates. Oakland is week-1 hyped.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-6.50	2.50	8.99	71.79
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	18.50	10.40	-8.13	70.59
ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE	-13.50	-4.60	8.94	66.67
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	5.00	-11.00	-15.97	59.56
CHICAGO @ DENVER	2.50	2.50	-0.00	58.82
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	7.00	8.10	1.13	25.00
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-3.00	1.30	4.34	53.57
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA	1.50	3.70	2.18	53.33
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI	-1.50	-1.60	-0.08	52.50
NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS	-2.50	-6.10	-3.61	50.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	-3.00	-0.90	2.06	48.29
SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH	-4.00	0.70	4.73	47.94
LA CHARGERS @ DETROIT	2.50	0.20	-2.26	46.66
BUFFALO @ NY GIANTS	1.50	-2.80	-4.28	45.46
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS	6.00	-8.90	-14.94	NA
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-9.00	2.90	11.89	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1

2018 started rough and all the way through until the playoffs. Hopefully this year we pick up better on trends we enjoy riding. The playoffs was a lot about experience, we ran that and it paid off. There's a lot going on and a lot of changes. As always, we let the first few weeks sink in some data. But if you do want to bet a few with emotion, at least here is what the model spit out based on last year.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	7.0	3.20	-3.76	65.22
HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.0	-5.40	1.57	59.65
LA RAMS @ CAROLINA	2.0	9.70	7.66	55.00
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND	-5.5	0.20	5.67	55.56
DENVER @ OAKLAND	2.5	-1.20	-3.69	55.10
CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE	-9.5	-7.20	2.27	54.10
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	-3.0	-0.50	2.51	52.17
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-7.0	-0.90	6.09	52.17
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-10.0	-1.30	8.67	51.72
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE	3.5	10.50	6.95	50.00
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-3.0	-5.40	-2.42	49.67
DETROIT @ ARIZONA	2.5	-2.90	-5.40	49.65
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA	-4.0	5.80	9.80	44.78
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND	-5.5	3.20	8.65	44.78
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY	-1.0	-2.40	-1.40	41.82
INDIANAPOLIS @ LA CHARGERS	-6.5	-6.70	0.75	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.