NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3
Great week last week overall! As I said in my previous post, the next few picks will be available here but from week 5 forward they're going to Rokfin. Here's the podcast between me and high stakes poker player Mr. Augustine.
There are 4 games this week with backup QBs. There is not one analysis I can do to figure it out. So I'm going to give you the qualitative view for a few of these games in case you want to sprinkle them (bad idea!).
- The Chargers D will get to DeShaun Watson many times.
- Carolina bounces back with a win over Arizona. Sharps agree not the public.
- Keep fading the Bears, especially if Trubisky is road favorite
- The Rams are the better team and 3 points relies too much on Cleveland hype.
- The backup QB for PIT Mason Rudolph grinds according to ESPN. He'll figure out a way to win.
- Mariotta as a road favorite on TNF vs Mineshew who isn't that bad. Play contrarian go with JAC.
How to read the table:
There are 4 games this week with backup QBs. There is not one analysis I can do to figure it out. So I'm going to give you the qualitative view for a few of these games in case you want to sprinkle them (bad idea!).
- The Chargers D will get to DeShaun Watson many times.
- Carolina bounces back with a win over Arizona. Sharps agree not the public.
- Keep fading the Bears, especially if Trubisky is road favorite
- The Rams are the better team and 3 points relies too much on Cleveland hype.
- The backup QB for PIT Mason Rudolph grinds according to ESPN. He'll figure out a way to win.
- Mariotta as a road favorite on TNF vs Mineshew who isn't that bad. Play contrarian go with JAC.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOUSTON @ LA CHARGERS | -3 | -13.2 | -10.20 | 62.18 |
| CAROLINA @ ARIZONA | -1.5 | 1.0 | 2.46 | 61.00 |
| CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON | 4 | -7.2 | -11.24 | 59.36 |
| LA RAMS @ CLEVELAND | 3 | 7.5 | 4.55 | 58.15 |
| BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY | -6.5 | 3.0 | 9.48 | 54.67 |
| OAKLAND @ MINNESOTA | -8.5 | -10.0 | -1.46 | 54.90 |
| ATLANTA @ INDIANAPOLIS | -1.5 | 3.2 | 4.74 | 53.85 |
| DENVER @ GREEN BAY | -7.5 | -3.8 | 3.73 | 53.62 |
| DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA | -6.5 | -2.5 | 3.97 | 53.62 |
| NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND | -23 | -9.9 | 13.14 | 53.14 |
| MIAMI @ DALLAS | -21.5 | -9.3 | 12.16 | 53.14 |
| CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO | -6 | -3.1 | 2.88 | 50.65 |
| NY GIANTS @ TAMPA BAY | -6.5 | -10.5 | -3.99 | 49.15 |
| TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE | 1.5 | -3.9 | -5.40 | 48.67 |
| PITTSBURGH @ SAN FRANCISCO | -6.5 | 1.8 | 8.28 | NA |
| NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE | -4 | -4.1 | -0.09 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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