NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1

2018 started rough and all the way through until the playoffs. Hopefully this year we pick up better on trends we enjoy riding. The playoffs was a lot about experience, we ran that and it paid off. There's a lot going on and a lot of changes. As always, we let the first few weeks sink in some data. But if you do want to bet a few with emotion, at least here is what the model spit out based on last year.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	7.0	3.20	-3.76	65.22
HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.0	-5.40	1.57	59.65
LA RAMS @ CAROLINA	2.0	9.70	7.66	55.00
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND	-5.5	0.20	5.67	55.56
DENVER @ OAKLAND	2.5	-1.20	-3.69	55.10
CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE	-9.5	-7.20	2.27	54.10
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	-3.0	-0.50	2.51	52.17
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-7.0	-0.90	6.09	52.17
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-10.0	-1.30	8.67	51.72
KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE	3.5	10.50	6.95	50.00
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-3.0	-5.40	-2.42	49.67
DETROIT @ ARIZONA	2.5	-2.90	-5.40	49.65
ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA	-4.0	5.80	9.80	44.78
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND	-5.5	3.20	8.65	44.78
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY	-1.0	-2.40	-1.40	41.82
INDIANAPOLIS @ LA CHARGERS	-6.5	-6.70	0.75	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.