NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1
2018 started rough and all the way through until the playoffs. Hopefully this year we pick up better on trends we enjoy riding. The playoffs was a lot about experience, we ran that and it paid off. There's a lot going on and a lot of changes. As always, we let the first few weeks sink in some data. But if you do want to bet a few with emotion, at least here is what the model spit out based on last year.
How to read the table:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BALTIMORE @ MIAMI | 7.0 | 3.20 | -3.76 | 65.22 |
| HOUSTON @ NEW ORLEANS | -7.0 | -5.40 | 1.57 | 59.65 |
| LA RAMS @ CAROLINA | 2.0 | 9.70 | 7.66 | 55.00 |
| TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND | -5.5 | 0.20 | 5.67 | 55.56 |
| DENVER @ OAKLAND | 2.5 | -1.20 | -3.69 | 55.10 |
| CINCINNATI @ SEATTLE | -9.5 | -7.20 | 2.27 | 54.10 |
| GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO | -3.0 | -0.50 | 2.51 | 52.17 |
| NY GIANTS @ DALLAS | -7.0 | -0.90 | 6.09 | 52.17 |
| WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA | -10.0 | -1.30 | 8.67 | 51.72 |
| KANSAS CITY @ JACKSONVILLE | 3.5 | 10.50 | 6.95 | 50.00 |
| BUFFALO @ NY JETS | -3.0 | -5.40 | -2.42 | 49.67 |
| DETROIT @ ARIZONA | 2.5 | -2.90 | -5.40 | 49.65 |
| ATLANTA @ MINNESOTA | -4.0 | 5.80 | 9.80 | 44.78 |
| PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND | -5.5 | 3.20 | 8.65 | 44.78 |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY | -1.0 | -2.40 | -1.40 | 41.82 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ LA CHARGERS | -6.5 | -6.70 | 0.75 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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