NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4
The first 3 weeks have been as expected, close to breaking even. Although I'll admit to unsafely betting some of these games, I recommend my readers to stay away at least from using these picks. The reason being mostly that my models look at team level data, so on new seasons or when a key player is out (e.g. Big Ben, Brees, Newton, etc.), then the analytics are more about understanding how many points is that key player worth. That's one I haven't done, but it'd be interesting to see. Regardless, it's alway fun to look at the results and put some thoughts behind it.
Indianapolis -7
Indi beat Tennesse by 2 and Atlanta by 3 and now they're at home. You know I love some strong vs, weak that's undervalued.
Patriots -7.5
More of strong vs. weak. Patriots are 59% ATS since 2000 (100+ games) against teams in their division. 3-0 Buffalo over valued against the best Defense? Wait what? The Patriots have Tom Brady and the best defense? Get the f&*$ out of here, all in.
Jaguars +3
Denver sucks and their defense is especially horrible. I'm not betting Joe Flacco will throw a Hail Mary.
Giants -3
I was going to remove this game bc of Eli. But after seeing Washington on MNF, I wanted to fade them again especially on short rest. Is Daniel Jones for real? idk but he's getting the hype. Let's go!
How to read the table:
Indianapolis -7
Indi beat Tennesse by 2 and Atlanta by 3 and now they're at home. You know I love some strong vs, weak that's undervalued.
Patriots -7.5
More of strong vs. weak. Patriots are 59% ATS since 2000 (100+ games) against teams in their division. 3-0 Buffalo over valued against the best Defense? Wait what? The Patriots have Tom Brady and the best defense? Get the f&*$ out of here, all in.
Jaguars +3
Denver sucks and their defense is especially horrible. I'm not betting Joe Flacco will throw a Hail Mary.
Giants -3
I was going to remove this game bc of Eli. But after seeing Washington on MNF, I wanted to fade them again especially on short rest. Is Daniel Jones for real? idk but he's getting the hype. Let's go!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAKLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS | -6.5 | -10.6 | -4.06 | 61.90 |
| NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO | 7.5 | 9.0 | 1.51 | 60.00 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ DENVER | -3.0 | 1.3 | 4.34 | 58.57 |
| WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS | -3.0 | -9.8 | -6.78 | 58.25 |
| TENNESSEE @ ATLANTA | -4.0 | -3.6 | 0.38 | 58.09 |
| CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | -3.5 | -6.0 | -2.48 | 52.54 |
| TAMPA BAY @ LA RAMS | -9.0 | -13.0 | -4.00 | 52.50 |
| KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 6.5 | -1.20 | -7.75 | 52.50 |
| LA CHARGERS @ MIAMI | 15.0 | 10.4 | -4.62 | 51.42 |
| SEATTLE @ ARIZONA | 5.0 | 1.2 | -3.83 | 50.82 |
| MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | -2.0 | 1.5 | 3.54 | 50.00 |
| PHILADELPHIA @ GREEN BAY | -4.0 | 5.6 | 9.58 | 46.15 |
| CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE | -6.5 | -5.9 | 0.64 | 45.91 |
| CAROLINA @ HOUSTON | -4.0 | 4.2 | 8.17 | NA |
| DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS | 2.5 | -4.9 | -7.44 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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