NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 2

We continue this week by sprinkling here and there merely to make watching the games interesting. We continue to gather data to make these algorithms more reliable. Regardless, last week was an unofficial 2-1 ATS which isn't bad. This week I like the big underdogs to cover, and teams with much hype to come back to reality.

- Tampa makes this a game and covers on primetime.
- New England's historic 19 points on the road is faded
- Arizona is horrible but Baltimore doesn't deserve 14 points, this is an over-reaction to week 1
- Dallas is hyped up and 85% of the bets are going to it. Play contrarian.
- Chicago's offense is horrible and won't cut it on the road vs Denver
- Even without Hill, KC dominates. Oakland is week-1 hyped.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-6.50	2.50	8.99	71.79
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	18.50	10.40	-8.13	70.59
ARIZONA @ BALTIMORE	-13.50	-4.60	8.94	66.67
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	5.00	-11.00	-15.97	59.56
CHICAGO @ DENVER	2.50	2.50	-0.00	58.82
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	7.00	8.10	1.13	25.00
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-3.00	1.30	4.34	53.57
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA	1.50	3.70	2.18	53.33
SAN FRANCISCO @ CINCINNATI	-1.50	-1.60	-0.08	52.50
NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS	-2.50	-6.10	-3.61	50.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	-3.00	-0.90	2.06	48.29
SEATTLE @ PITTSBURGH	-4.00	0.70	4.73	47.94
LA CHARGERS @ DETROIT	2.50	0.20	-2.26	46.66
BUFFALO @ NY GIANTS	1.50	-2.80	-4.28	45.46
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS	6.00	-8.90	-14.94	NA
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-9.00	2.90	11.89	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.