NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: San Francisco -2.5 
Pick 2: New England -5.5 
Pick 3: LA Rams +1.5 
Pick 4: Tampa Bay +7 

Although officially it was a 50% ATS, it was a good week. Cinci should've covered that game, unfortunately, it didn't fall our way this time. The Bears and New Orleans were solid bets. Baltimore was bad but luckily when I went to bet, it had climbed to 2.5 so I forgot to bet it later to see if it had come back down. Anyways, there's a good indication here that the models are getting better.

For week 9 of the NFL 2018 season these are some trends we're betting:
1) Keep fading Oakland, especially on the road.
2) Keep betting Brady/Bellicheck magic. It's only going to get better when Edelman, Gronk, and Gordon all sync
3) The LA Rams on paper are better than New Orleans. Tough game to bet, but the Rams should win.
4) Too many points for Carolina when they are so inconsistent. Hoping for inconsistency and some Fitzmagic
5) Waiting to see if Josh Allen plays. If he does, 9 points for the Bears on the road is giving them way too much credit especially with Buffalo's pass D.

Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 9, 2018:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO	-2.5	-5.60	-3.07	66.67
GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND	-5.5	-7.40	-1.89	60.00
LA RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS	-1.5	8.10	9.60	59.00
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-7.0	0.70	7.70	58.67
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON	-1.5	-2.50	-0.97	56.77
HOUSTON @ DENVER	-2.5	-7.10	-4.65	54.76
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND	9.0	5.30	-3.68	53.22
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-3.0	1.30	4.31	52.00
LA CHARGERS @ SEATTLE	-1.5	-3.30	-1.76	50.67
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	-4.5	-7.50	-3.01	50.78
TENNESSEE @ DALLAS	-6.5	3.50	9.02	NA
CHICAGO @ BUFFALO	9.5	7.80	-1.66	NA
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-3.0	-9.70	-6.75	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: New Orleans 0 
Pick 2: Chicago -7 
Pick 3: Baltimore -1 
Pick 4: Cincinnati -4 

Update: Added Cincinnati as a pick for the week based on the discrepancy between the spread and the estimate and not having a significant player injury.

Terrible ending to what could've been my happiest 50% ATS week. Eli Manning is garbage and ruining his reputation after every play. I will make that bet again any day. Still feeling strongly about dominant teams vs weak teams and how they can blow them out when the spread isn't in double digits. We saw it last week with Rams and Chiefs.

This week we have 3 great NFL spread picks; 2 visiting teams and 1 home team. New Orleans are a close 2nd IMO on the NFC and seems undervalued here against an inconsistent Vikings team. The spread opened at +2.5 and quickly moved to pick, hoping it reverses a bit to bet it. The spread for the Texans seems too high given they aren't that great, Jacksonville and Bortles are back to their 2015 season and made Houston look good. At +7.5 analytics believes Miami will cover, but given Tannehill isn't playing I downgraded this game as a no bet. Chicago, my Bears, looking ok. It's great to see a great D post-Urlacher and they did a pretty good job with the Patriots even though they allowed +40 points. At home, this playoff team will show they want a chance at the postseason and weak teams like the NYJ are not going to get on their way. Finally, Baltimore's D is good and should make Cam Newton run for its money. I'm not so sure about Flacco on the road, but the models seem to give BAL a lot more points (probably due to the difference of stats in Defense). Oakland was attractive too, but idk what they're offense is going to do without Coooper so staying away from that bet as well. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 8, 2018:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA	0	8.70	8.17	68.82
NY JETS @ CHICAGO	-7.0	-10.30	-3.31	59.90
BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA	1.0	11.90	10.95	58.00
TAMPA BAY @ CINCINNATI	-4.0	-15.00	-10.99	NA
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND	1.5	-0.80	-2.25	57.14
GREEN BAY @ LA RAMS	-9.0	-6.30	2.72	55.81
SEATTLE @ DETROIT	-2.5	-6.90	-4.38	55.10
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA	-3.0	-7.40	-4.40	55.10
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	-10.0	-11.60	-1.59	52.17
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-7.5	-8.90	-1.39	50.00
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	14.0	14.50	0.50	50.00
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	1.0	-1.00	-1.98	50.00
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	-1.0	0.10	1.11	49.17
MIAMI @ HOUSTON	-7.5	-2.20	5.25	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Atlanta -6 
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5 
Pick 3: Kansas City -5.5 
Pick 4: Arizona +2 

Great week last week. Put me in check with my betting rules and emotions after being overly excited about the initial 3-0. TNF was an easy win with Philadelphia and then up 2 more games after the 12pm CST games, the next two games bombed and finished 3-2 for the week. The model did well at finding visiting teams that were undervalued (e.g. Philadelphia), but when the spread is more than a TD we should be more careful.

This week we have 3 home teams and one visiting, including one homedog. KC on SNF to continue it's ATS winning streak to 7 this week (see ATS Standings), Arizona homedog on TNF will be a crazy one and win outright. Atlanta's offense and ability to score is undervalued and the spread against a Giants team that is horrible should be at least 7.  Finally, we double dip on Buffalo against a bad team for which they aren't that different. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread npicks for week 7, 2018:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA	-6.0	-13.90	-7.94	63.13
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7.5	-3.00	4.50	60.55
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY	-6.0	-7.20	-1.18	59.10
DENVER @ ARIZONA	2.5	-7.50	-9.50	58.56
TENNESSEE @ LA CHARGERS	-6.5	-3	3.51	56.79
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA	-4.5	-3.40	1.11	55.00
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	-5.0	-6.00	-1.00	52.10
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY	-3.0	-1.70	2.71	50.54
LA RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO	9.5	11.50	2.00	50.00
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE	-2.0	0.40	2.38	49.29
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	-2.0	-3.90	-1.91	49.29
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO	3.5	0.60	-2.88	48.66
MINNESOTA @ NY JETS	3.0	7.30	4.30	44.82
DETROIT @ MIAMI	1.0	6.20	5.15	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: NY Jets -2.5 
Pick 2: Philadelphia -2 
Pick 3: Buffalo +9.5
Pick 4: Jacksonville -3 
Pick 5: LA Rams -7 

Not a great start going 1-2 on the picks last week. Lots of home teams won last week, which made me think twice about this week's picks. 3 bets are going after a better visiting team underrated because they are visiting and when you're so much better home field advantage lessens. Only one bet for the visiting team is for the underdog, Buffalo. This bet worries me and I thought of pulling it but I couldn't come up with a reasonable reason besides 'hunch'. Finally, Jets at home catching 2.5 against a struggling Colts team, I'm in. Here are all the spread predictions for week 5 NFL games:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS	-2.5	-1.00	1.54	62.11
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	2.0	10.8	8.81	59.06
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON	-9.5	0.40	9.88	58.34
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS	3.0	6.20	3.16	58.12
LA RAMS @ DENVER	7.0	16.0	8.97	56.50
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND	2.5	7.20	4.72	55.10
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-3.0	-6.90	-3.93	54.55
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND	-3.5	-7.00	-2.50	52.50
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA	-10.5	-11.00	-0.5	50.72
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE	3.0	10.60	7.61	50.06
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	-9.5	5.90	15.44	50.14
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	-2.5	-3.90	-1.37	50.03
LA CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND	1.5	3.00	1.50	49.8
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON	-1.0	-3.50	-2.50	49.8
CHICAGO @ MIAMI	3.5	5.10	1.59	47.5

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2018 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: LA Chargers -5.5 
Pick 2: Baltimore -3 
Pick 3: Jacksonville +3 

I'm back baby and with a vengeance. Spent some time during the summer going through the machine learning models and making a few tweaks here and there. Didn't change that much since last year was a great year after a big overhaul that included transferring all the code to Python. I am going to make a few changes to how we bet. The main change is that we're not varying the percent of bankroll throughout the year, we're going 22% all year every week. A couple of betting rules to follow (more of a personal note):

• Only bet the games selected on this blog
• If a week doesn't go well, don't double down on SNF or MNF
• Stay the course, 22% every week
• Check injury reports every week

We're starting with a fake balance of 10K for tracking ROI purposes which means this week we split 2200 in 3 for each game. Here are week 5 machine learning powered NFL picks against the spread:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS	-5.50	-16.20	-10.75	61.9
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	3.00	8.90	5.90	59.4
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY	-3.00	4.80	7.75	58.9
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-4.50	-8.50	-4.00	57.0
DENVER @ NY JETS	-1.00	-5.50	-4.50	54.5
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI	-6.50	-18.10	-11.65	52.9
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS	-6.50	-2.70	3.75	51.0
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT	1.00	-5.20	-6.25	50.8
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH	-3.00	1.10	4.10	50.5
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA	-3.00	1.00	4.00	50.5
DALLAS @ HOUSTON	-3.00	0.50	3.51	50.0
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO	3.50	8.90	5.40	49.3
NY GIANTS @ CAROLINA	-7.00	-15.70	-8.75	48.1
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-10.00	-16.10	-6.10	45.2
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE	7.00	8.00	1.00	45.0

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.