NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Atlanta -6
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -5.5
Pick 4: Arizona +2 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Great week last week. Put me in check with my betting rules and emotions after being overly excited about the initial 3-0. TNF was an easy win with Philadelphia and then up 2 more games after the 12pm CST games, the next two games bombed and finished 3-2 for the week. The model did well at finding visiting teams that were undervalued (e.g. Philadelphia), but when the spread is more than a TD we should be more careful.

This week we have 3 home teams and one visiting, including one homedog. KC on SNF to continue it's ATS winning streak to 7 this week (see ATS Standings), Arizona homedog on TNF will be a crazy one and win outright. Atlanta's offense and ability to score is undervalued and the spread against a Giants team that is horrible should be at least 7.  Finally, we double dip on Buffalo against a bad team for which they aren't that different. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread npicks for week 7, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA -6.0 -13.90 -7.94 63.13
BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 -3.00 4.50 60.55
CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY -6.0 -7.20 -1.18 59.10
DENVER @ ARIZONA 2.5 -7.50 -9.50 58.56
TENNESSEE @ LA CHARGERS -6.5 -3 3.51 56.79
CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA -4.5 -3.40 1.11 55.00
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE -5.0 -6.00 -1.00 52.10
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY -3.0 -1.70 2.71 50.54
LA RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 11.50 2.00 50.00
NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE -2.0 0.40 2.38 49.29
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON -2.0 -3.90 -1.91 49.29
NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO 3.5 0.60 -2.88 48.66
MINNESOTA @ NY JETS 3.0 7.30 4.30 44.82
DETROIT @ MIAMI 1.0 6.20 5.15 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: NY Jets -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo +9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Jacksonville -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: LA Rams -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Not a great start going 1-2 on the picks last week. Lots of home teams won last week, which made me think twice about this week's picks. 3 bets are going after a better visiting team underrated because they are visiting and when you're so much better home field advantage lessens. Only one bet for the visiting team is for the underdog, Buffalo. This bet worries me and I thought of pulling it but I couldn't come up with a reasonable reason besides 'hunch'. Finally, Jets at home catching 2.5 against a struggling Colts team, I'm in. Here are all the spread predictions for week 5 NFL games:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -2.5 -1.00 1.54 62.11
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 2.0 10.8 8.81 59.06
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON -9.5 0.40 9.88 58.34
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS 3.0 6.20 3.16 58.12
LA RAMS @ DENVER 7.0 16.0 8.97 56.50
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND 2.5 7.20 4.72 55.10
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -3.0 -6.90 -3.93 54.55
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND -3.5 -7.00 -2.50 52.50
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -11.00 -0.5 50.72
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE 3.0 10.60 7.61 50.06
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY -9.5 5.90 15.44 50.14
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -2.5 -3.90 -1.37 50.03
LA CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND 1.5 3.00 1.50 49.8
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -1.0 -3.50 -2.50 49.8
CHICAGO @ MIAMI 3.5 5.10 1.59 47.5

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2018 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: LA Chargers -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Jacksonville +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

I'm back baby and with a vengeance. Spent some time during the summer going through the machine learning models and making a few tweaks here and there. Didn't change that much since last year was a great year after a big overhaul that included transferring all the code to Python. I am going to make a few changes to how we bet. The main change is that we're not varying the percent of bankroll throughout the year, we're going 22% all year every week. A couple of betting rules to follow (more of a personal note):
  • Only bet the games selected on this blog
  • If a week doesn't go well, don't double down on SNF or MNF
  • Stay the course, 22% every week
  • Check injury reports every week
We're starting with a fake balance of 10K for tracking ROI purposes which means this week we split 2200 in 3 for each game. Here are week 5 machine learning powered NFL picks against the spread:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS -5.50 -16.20 -10.75 61.9
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND 3.00 8.90 5.90 59.4
JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY -3.00 4.80 7.75 58.9
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -4.50 -8.50 -4.00 57.0
DENVER @ NY JETS -1.00 -5.50 -4.50 54.5
MIAMI @ CINCINNATI -6.50 -18.10 -11.65 52.9
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS -6.50 -2.70 3.75 51.0
GREEN BAY @ DETROIT 1.00 -5.20 -6.25 50.8
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH -3.00 1.10 4.10 50.5
MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA -3.00 1.00 4.00 50.5
DALLAS @ HOUSTON -3.00 0.50 3.51 50.0
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO 3.50 8.90 5.40 49.3
NY GIANTS @ CAROLINA -7.00 -15.70 -8.75 48.1
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -10.00 -16.10 -6.10 45.2
LA RAMS @ SEATTLE 7.00 8.00 1.00 45.0

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.