NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: NY Jets -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Philadelphia -2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Buffalo +9.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Jacksonville -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 5: LA Rams -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Not a great start going 1-2 on the picks last week. Lots of home teams won last week, which made me think twice about this week's picks. 3 bets are going after a better visiting team underrated because they are visiting and when you're so much better home field advantage lessens. Only one bet for the visiting team is for the underdog, Buffalo. This bet worries me and I thought of pulling it but I couldn't come up with a reasonable reason besides 'hunch'. Finally, Jets at home catching 2.5 against a struggling Colts team, I'm in. Here are all the spread predictions for week 5 NFL games:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY JETS -2.5 -1.00 1.54 62.11
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS 2.0 10.8 8.81 59.06
BUFFALO @ HOUSTON -9.5 0.40 9.88 58.34
JACKSONVILLE @ DALLAS 3.0 6.20 3.16 58.12
LA RAMS @ DENVER 7.0 16.0 8.97 56.50
SEATTLE @ OAKLAND 2.5 7.20 4.72 55.10
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -3.0 -6.90 -3.93 54.55
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND -3.5 -7.00 -2.50 52.50
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -11.00 -0.5 50.72
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE 3.0 10.60 7.61 50.06
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY -9.5 5.90 15.44 50.14
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI -2.5 -3.90 -1.37 50.03
LA CHARGERS @ CLEVELAND 1.5 3.00 1.50 49.8
CAROLINA @ WASHINGTON -1.0 -3.50 -2.50 49.8
CHICAGO @ MIAMI 3.5 5.10 1.59 47.5

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


TotalBS said…
Sorry but when a model is so far off the actual line, your model must have some flaws.

The people making the lines are not stupid, they have more knowledge then any single person. They are not in the business of making inefficiencies. So for your model to be so far off, it would seem you have some faulty logic.

Best of luck but something isn't quite right, I would be very leary betting on these plays.
George said…
Then don't bet on them @TotalBS. This guy has a graduate degree in stats and puts up line with historical data (unedited). Where else can you find that?

I agree people making the lines aren't stupid, but their job isn't to guess the line right every time. Look at all the margin differences to between line and actual ending spread, I'll save you the trouble, its about 10 pts. This week's avg difference? 3.5 pts.
TotalBS said…
@George... We will agree to disagree... Time will tell who is right. I see regression to the mean here... But best of luck to us all.