NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: San Francisco -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: New England -5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: LA Rams +1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Tampa Bay +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Although officially it was a 50% ATS, it was a good week. Cinci should've covered that game, unfortunately, it didn't fall our way this time. The Bears and New Orleans were solid bets. Baltimore was bad but luckily when I went to bet, it had climbed to 2.5 so I forgot to bet it later to see if it had come back down. Anyways, there's a good indication here that the models are getting better.

For week 9 of the NFL 2018 season these are some trends we're betting:
1) Keep fading Oakland, especially on the road.
2) Keep betting Brady/Bellicheck magic. It's only going to get better when Edelman, Gronk, and Gordon all sync
3) The LA Rams on paper are better than New Orleans. Tough game to bet, but the Rams should win.
4) Too many points for Carolina when they are so inconsistent. Hoping for inconsistency and some Fitzmagic
5) Waiting to see if Josh Allen plays. If he does, 9 points for the Bears on the road is giving them way too much credit especially with Buffalo's pass D.

Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 9, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
OAKLAND @ SAN FRANCISCO -2.5 -5.60 -3.07 66.67
GREEN BAY @ NEW ENGLAND -5.5 -7.40 -1.89 60.00
LA RAMS @ NEW ORLEANS -1.5 8.10 9.60 59.00
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -7.0 0.70 7.70 58.67
ATLANTA @ WASHINGTON -1.5 -2.50 -0.97 56.77
HOUSTON @ DENVER -2.5 -7.10 -4.65 54.76
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND 9.0 5.30 -3.68 53.22
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE -3.0 1.30 4.31 52.00
LA CHARGERS @ SEATTLE -1.5 -3.30 -1.76 50.67
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -4.5 -7.50 -3.01 50.78
TENNESSEE @ DALLAS -6.5 3.50 9.02 NA
CHICAGO @ BUFFALO 9.5 7.80 -1.66 NA
NY JETS @ MIAMI -3.0 -9.70 -6.75 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2 comments:

Unknown said...

Not getting in the Dallas line as it's probably inflated bc of Amari Cooper. Buffalo is not starting Josh Allen so I'm not getting near this game.

Jaime Brugueras said...

One of the few times I've seen the top green picks consistently be better than the yellow ones.