2018 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5
Pick 1: LA Chargers -5.5 
Pick 2: Baltimore -3
Pick 3: Jacksonville +3
I'm back baby and with a vengeance. Spent some time during the summer going through the machine learning models and making a few tweaks here and there. Didn't change that much since last year was a great year after a big overhaul that included transferring all the code to Python. I am going to make a few changes to how we bet. The main change is that we're not varying the percent of bankroll throughout the year, we're going 22% all year every week. A couple of betting rules to follow (more of a personal note):
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Baltimore -3
Pick 3: Jacksonville +3
I'm back baby and with a vengeance. Spent some time during the summer going through the machine learning models and making a few tweaks here and there. Didn't change that much since last year was a great year after a big overhaul that included transferring all the code to Python. I am going to make a few changes to how we bet. The main change is that we're not varying the percent of bankroll throughout the year, we're going 22% all year every week. A couple of betting rules to follow (more of a personal note):
- Only bet the games selected on this blog
- If a week doesn't go well, don't double down on SNF or MNF
- Stay the course, 22% every week
- Check injury reports every week
We're starting with a fake balance of 10K for tracking ROI purposes which means this week we split 2200 in 3 for each game. Here are week 5 machine learning powered NFL picks against the spread:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OAKLAND @ LA CHARGERS | -5.50 | -16.20 | -10.75 | 61.9 |
| BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND | 3.00 | 8.90 | 5.90 | 59.4 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ KANSAS CITY | -3.00 | 4.80 | 7.75 | 58.9 |
| ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO | -4.50 | -8.50 | -4.00 | 57.0 |
| DENVER @ NY JETS | -1.00 | -5.50 | -4.50 | 54.5 |
| MIAMI @ CINCINNATI | -6.50 | -18.10 | -11.65 | 52.9 |
| WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS | -6.50 | -2.70 | 3.75 | 51.0 |
| GREEN BAY @ DETROIT | 1.00 | -5.20 | -6.25 | 50.8 |
| ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH | -3.00 | 1.10 | 4.10 | 50.5 |
| MINNESOTA @ PHILADELPHIA | -3.00 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 50.5 |
| DALLAS @ HOUSTON | -3.00 | 0.50 | 3.51 | 50.0 |
| TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO | 3.50 | 8.90 | 5.40 | 49.3 |
| NY GIANTS @ CAROLINA | -7.00 | -15.70 | -8.75 | 48.1 |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND | -10.00 | -16.10 | -6.10 | 45.2 |
| LA RAMS @ SEATTLE | 7.00 | 8.00 | 1.00 | 45.0 |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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