NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: New Orleans 0 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -1 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Update: Added Cincinnati as a pick for the week based on the discrepancy between the spread and the estimate and not having a significant player injury.

Terrible ending to what could've been my happiest 50% ATS week. Eli Manning is garbage and ruining his reputation after every play. I will make that bet again any day. Still feeling strongly about dominant teams vs weak teams and how they can blow them out when the spread isn't in double digits. We saw it last week with Rams and Chiefs.

This week we have 3 great NFL spread picks; 2 visiting teams and 1 home team. New Orleans are a close 2nd IMO on the NFC and seems undervalued here against an inconsistent Vikings team. The spread opened at +2.5 and quickly moved to pick, hoping it reverses a bit to bet it. The spread for the Texans seems too high given they aren't that great, Jacksonville and Bortles are back to their 2015 season and made Houston look good. At +7.5 analytics believes Miami will cover, but given Tannehill isn't playing I downgraded this game as a no bet. Chicago, my Bears, looking ok. It's great to see a great D post-Urlacher and they did a pretty good job with the Patriots even though they allowed +40 points. At home, this playoff team will show they want a chance at the postseason and weak teams like the NYJ are not going to get on their way. Finally, Baltimore's D is good and should make Cam Newton run for its money. I'm not so sure about Flacco on the road, but the models seem to give BAL a lot more points (probably due to the difference of stats in Defense). Oakland was attractive too, but idk what they're offense is going to do without Coooper so staying away from that bet as well. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread picks for week 8, 2018:

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA 0 8.70 8.17 68.82
NY JETS @ CHICAGO -7.0 -10.30 -3.31 59.90
BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA 1.0 11.90 10.95 58.00
TAMPA BAY @ CINCINNATI -4.0 -15.00 -10.99 NA
INDIANAPOLIS @ OAKLAND 1.5 -0.80 -2.25 57.14
GREEN BAY @ LA RAMS -9.0 -6.30 2.72 55.81
SEATTLE @ DETROIT -2.5 -6.90 -4.38 55.10
JACKSONVILLE @ PHILADELPHIA -3.0 -7.40 -4.40 55.10
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -10.0 -11.60 -1.59 52.17
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH -7.5 -8.90 -1.39 50.00
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 14.0 14.50 0.50 50.00
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS 1.0 -1.00 -1.98 50.00
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -1.0 0.10 1.11 49.17
MIAMI @ HOUSTON -7.5 -2.20 5.25 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


Unknown said...

So glad I stayed away from Miami! Every time there is a new QB in the last 5 games stay away, analysis doesn't work/apply. Now let's have a 4-0 week!!!

Unknown said...

Shouldn't have added Cinci at the last minute. Trash TDs continue to hurt. Was totally off on BAL and right on the other two. Should think about including Indi next time (or the 57 confidence or above)