NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7
Pick 1: Atlanta -6 
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -5.5
Pick 4: Arizona +2
Great week last week. Put me in check with my betting rules and emotions after being overly excited about the initial 3-0. TNF was an easy win with Philadelphia and then up 2 more games after the 12pm CST games, the next two games bombed and finished 3-2 for the week. The model did well at finding visiting teams that were undervalued (e.g. Philadelphia), but when the spread is more than a TD we should be more careful.
This week we have 3 home teams and one visiting, including one homedog. KC on SNF to continue it's ATS winning streak to 7 this week (see ATS Standings), Arizona homedog on TNF will be a crazy one and win outright. Atlanta's offense and ability to score is undervalued and the spread against a Giants team that is horrible should be at least 7. Finally, we double dip on Buffalo against a bad team for which they aren't that different. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread npicks for week 7, 2018:
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -5.5
Pick 4: Arizona +2
Great week last week. Put me in check with my betting rules and emotions after being overly excited about the initial 3-0. TNF was an easy win with Philadelphia and then up 2 more games after the 12pm CST games, the next two games bombed and finished 3-2 for the week. The model did well at finding visiting teams that were undervalued (e.g. Philadelphia), but when the spread is more than a TD we should be more careful.
This week we have 3 home teams and one visiting, including one homedog. KC on SNF to continue it's ATS winning streak to 7 this week (see ATS Standings), Arizona homedog on TNF will be a crazy one and win outright. Atlanta's offense and ability to score is undervalued and the spread against a Giants team that is horrible should be at least 7. Finally, we double dip on Buffalo against a bad team for which they aren't that different. Here is the rest of the machine learning NFL spread npicks for week 7, 2018:
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY GIANTS @ ATLANTA | -6.0 | -13.90 | -7.94 | 63.13 |
| BUFFALO @ INDIANAPOLIS | -7.5 | -3.00 | 4.50 | 60.55 |
| CINCINNATI @ KANSAS CITY | -6.0 | -7.20 | -1.18 | 59.10 |
| DENVER @ ARIZONA | 2.5 | -7.50 | -9.50 | 58.56 |
| TENNESSEE @ LA CHARGERS | -6.5 | -3 | 3.51 | 56.79 |
| CAROLINA @ PHILADELPHIA | -4.5 | -3.40 | 1.11 | 55.00 |
| HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE | -5.0 | -6.00 | -1.00 | 52.10 |
| CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY | -3.0 | -1.70 | 2.71 | 50.54 |
| LA RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 9.5 | 11.50 | 2.00 | 50.00 |
| NEW ORLEANS @ BALTIMORE | -2.0 | 0.40 | 2.38 | 49.29 |
| DALLAS @ WASHINGTON | -2.0 | -3.90 | -1.91 | 49.29 |
| NEW ENGLAND @ CHICAGO | 3.5 | 0.60 | -2.88 | 48.66 |
| MINNESOTA @ NY JETS | 3.0 | 7.30 | 4.30 | 44.82 |
| DETROIT @ MIAMI | 1.0 | 6.20 | 5.15 | NA |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
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