NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 13

Pick 1: New Orleans -4.5
Pick 2: Houston +7
Pick 3: Green Bay +1
Pick 4: LA Rams -7

Unfortunately our 4-week winning streak is over but only to a 2-2 ATS week. Will we bounce back or continue regressing to the mean as my colleagues joke with me? Lets stay smart, true to the numbers, making no emotional pick and safeguard our money. Lucky week 13 has been generally good for my algorithm, except for last year. Of the 9 years of historical data, 3 of them have been perfect on week 13 and 7 of 9 have won. This week our sure lock are the Saints at home playing a mediocre offense. This game is going to be a blowout. Tennessee doesn't deserve to be a 7-point favorite, nor does Tampa on the road. Finally, the mighty Rams are due to give a blowout. Do you agree with these picks?

Slightly increasing the bankroll at 23%, we continue to use Kelly's formula to maximize winnings and minimize the chance of bankrupt. With four solid NFL picks this week we get about $730 per game. Let the good times roll!

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-4.5	-8.30	-3.83	68.29
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-7.0	3.70	10.72	65.89
TAMPA BAY @ GREEN BAY	1.0	-11.30	-12.33	59.54
LA RAMS @ ARIZONA	7.0	18.60	11.60	58.63
MINNESOTA @ ATLANTA	-3.0	0.30	3.34	57.67
DENVER @ MIAMI	1.00	-5.60	-6.57	53.86
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE	-3.0	-5.70	-2.67	52.58
CLEVELAND @ LA CHARGERS	-14.0	-17.00	-3.00	51.56
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE	6.0	5.80	-0.21	50.00
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	-9.5	-10.00	-0.50	50.00
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	6.0	5.00	-1.01	50.00
KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS	3.5	-7.40	-10.92	48.11
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-1.0	-2.70	-1.67	48.00
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	9.0	11.80	2.75	47.84
SAN FRANCISCO @ CHICAGO	-3.0	-4.30	-1.30	NA
NY GIANTS @ OAKLAND	-7.0	-3.00	4.0	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 12

Pick 1: Buffalo +10
Pick 2: Jacksonville -5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -13.5
Pick 4: Indianapolis +3.5
Pick 5 MNF: Baltimore -7 PUSH

Another great week last week going 3-1 ATS. The one loss could've been avoided by staying off that game due to the injuries at Seattle. Anyways, this Thanksgiving week we'll continue to roll with a big dog in Buffalo, heavy favorites Jaguars and Eagles, and taking a home dog in the Colts.

Keeping the bankroll at a healthy 22%. With four solid NFL picks this week we get about $725 per game (based on our current bankroll). Hope you are thankful to all the great things you have in life including these great picks coming out of my machine this year.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY	-10.0	-5.20	4.78	70.37
JACKSONVILLE @ ARIZONA	5.0	8.20	3.18	60.87
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA	-13.5	-16.20	-2.75	58.56
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	3.5	-3.70	-7.17	58.52
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-16.5	-25.70	-9.21	55.83
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE	-7.0	-14.50	-7.46	54.62
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-10.0	-13.40	-3.43	53.00
CAROLINA @ NY JETS	4.5	9.70	5.19	52.56
DENVER @ OAKLAND	-5.0	-3.50	1.46	52.56
NEW ORLEANS @ LA RAMS	-2.5	-11.20	-8.68	51.85
CLEVELAND @ CINCINNATI	-9.0	-7.00	2.00	51.57
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	-7.5	-2.90	4.61	51.22
LA CHARGERS @ DALLAS	-1.0	4.20	5.21	50.00
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	3.0	3.10	0.10	49.41
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	7.0	13.50	6.48	48.00
GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH	-14.0	-9.30	4.67	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Spread Picks - Week 11, 2017

Pick 1: New England -7
Pick 2: Seattle -3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -7
Pick 4: Jacksonville -7.5

What a f* great week! Wow, it's been a crazy ride this year and now that we continue to bet the increasing bankroll is when we'll start seeing huge growth. Half a point a way from a perfect 5-0, but I'll take 4-1 ATS in the NFL any day. I've been doing NFL spread picks for about 10 years now and I've never been this excited. I think there are two things contributing to the success so far: 1) there aren't many middle ground teams; they are really good and horrible and we've been banking on those heavy favorites and 2) after transferring my machine learning NFL spread picks to Python and adding a few new methodologies, I have a wider array of model choices to compare and weigh each one depending on their historical success.

This NFL week 11 we will continue to bank on heavy favorites. New England in Mexico City, yeah elevation is not going to benefit Oakland. I like the Seattle pick at home and although no Sherman there's no Devante either so I like this matchup. Pittsburgh is also a heavy favorite and although they didn't play great last week, it's good to see the spread a bit less than last week so I'll think they'll bounce back to dominate. Continue fading the Browns and go on Jacksonville to sweep them off. Two other picks that caught my eye although they didn't make my confidence threshold are LA Rams and Philadelphia (especially with Ezequiel out). Good luck everyone.

It is time to bump up the percent of bankroll to 22%. This means that this week we will bet about $525 per game (based on our current bankroll). It's going to be very exciting to see where we end this week and as always, post a comment about your picks so we can discuss.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ENGLAND - OAKLAND (Mexico City)	7.0	15.20	8.20	61.00
ATLANTA @ SEATTLE	-3.0	-6.00	-3.00	60.28
TENNESSEE @ PITTSBURGH	-7.0	-12.30	-5.31	59.67
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND	7.5	19.80	12.29	58.43
LA RAMS @ MINNESOTA	-2.0	12.80	14.79	56.26
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	3.5	5.50	2.00	55.41
BUFFALO @ LA CHARGERS	-4.0	-1.10	2.90	54.56
TAMPA BAY @ MIAMI	-2.5	-5.00	-2.50	51.67
CINCINNATI @ DENVER	-2.5	5.10	7.63	51.28
ARIZONA @ HOUSTON	1.5	-1.30	-2.79	50.0
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	3.0	-3.20	-6.17	50.00
WASHINGTON @ NEW ORLEANS	-9.0	-5.70	3.30	50.00
KANSAS CITY @ NY GIANTS	10.5	13.80	3.32	49.86
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY	2.0	-3.00	-5.02	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Spread Picks - Week 10, 2017

Pick 1: Arizona +6.5
Pick 2: Jacksonville -3.5
Pick 3: Detroit -11.5
Pick 4: Cincinnati +4.5
Pick 5: LA Rams -12

The trash TD and 2-point conversion by overpaid Jay Cutler continued our winning streak. I wish I had waited longer for this and gotten the extra half point and it would've been a win vs a push. This week we have a some big favorites, a home dog and an easy money win from Jacksonville. Although I don't like super heavy favorites, I also like betting against really crappy teams hence bet against Cleveland and Houston.

This NFL week 10 we continue with 18% of bankroll which gives us roughly a $400 bet per game. Let us know what your picks are and if you agree/disagree with these picks.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	6.5	3.00	-3.50	60.9
LA CHARGERS @ JACKSONVILLE	-3.5	-16.50	-13.00	60.6
CLEVELAND @ DETROIT	-11.5	-16.50	-5.00	59.0
CINCINNATI @ TENNESSEE	-4.5	-1.90	2.56	58.6
HOUSTON @ LA RAMS	-12.0	-22.50	-10.50	57.3
NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	-1.00	-3.50	56.4
NEW ORLEANS @ BUFFALO	2.5	3.90	1.43	54.5
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON	1.5	-1.80	-3.33	53.3
PITTSBURGH @ INDIANAPOLIS	10.0	20.00	10.00	53.4
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER	7.5	7.80	0.30	50.3
DALLAS @ ATLANTA	-3.0	-2.50	0.50	50.3
MIAMI @ CAROLINA	-9.0	-16.20	-7.22	49.8
NY GIANTS @ SAN FRANCISCO	1.0	3.20	2.17	48.0
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	-5.0	-6.40	-1.35	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2017 NFL Week 9 Point Spread Picks

Pick 1: New Orleans -7
Pick 2: Miami +3 PUSH
Pick 3: Kansas City PK
Pick 4: Indianapolis +13

Coming out of a great week last week, I believe we have some great picks this week. Tampa Bay is terrible and the Saints should roll past them by a lot. Not so sure about Atlanta (*update: changed a few parameters, re-ran and now it's not a pick), but hopefully some of last year's glory comes out in this game against a struggling Panthers team. I hate betting for Cutler, but this is a nice fade against a bad Oakland team and always like getting a homedog in there. I like KC winning this game and with Ezequiel out it's almost a sure bet. Too many points in the Indi/Houston game.

This NFL week 9 we will start to put the foot on the pedal and increase to 18% of bankroll. Since we have 4 NFL football games preferred by machine learning each game will get a $440 bet.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-7.0	-15.10	-8.10	60.6
OAKLAND @ MIAMI	3.0	-2.7	-5.7	58.4
KANSAS CITY @ DALLAS	1.00	7.60	6.60	58.3
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	-13.0	-10.50	2.50	58.0
LA RAMS @ NY GIANTS	3.5	-11.00	-14.50	57.1
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	2.0	3.60	1.6	54.3
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	-1.0	1.50	2.47	54.0
CINCINNATI @ JACKSONVILLE	-4.5	3.70	8.17	53.7
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	3.0	5.70	2.67	53.4
WASHINGTON @ SEATTLE	-7.5	-2.70	4.83	51.2
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA	-8.0	-9.70	-1.70	50.0
BALTIMORE @ TENNESSEE	-4.5	-1.70	2.83	NA
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	2.5	-9.70	-12.17	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.