Pick 2: Cincinnati +1.5
Pick 3: Carolina -7
This is frustrating. Baltimore's blocked kick in the last 5 minutes saved us from complete embarrassment. Last week's 1-2 record could've also been better because PIT shouldn't have been a pick given Ben nor Vick were starting. It is time to turn things around. We are right in the middle of the season and there should be valuable data feeding these models.
Lots of picks this week yet none of them are underdogs. We got 2 home favorite picks (ATL, CAR) and a road team (CIN). We continue using 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA | -7 | -15.6 | -8.6 | 60.0% |
| CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH | -1.5 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 58.3% |
| INDIANAPOLIS @ CAROLINA | -7 | -15.8 | -8.8 | 57.3% |
| SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE | -3 | -9.1 | -6.1 | 56.1% |
| ARIZONA @ CLEVELAND | 5.5 | 12.1 | 6.6 | 55.0% |
| KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT | 5 | 2.5 | -2.5 | 54.0% |
| SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS | -8.5 | -13.9 | -5.4 | 54.0% |
| MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | -8 | -1.2 | 6.8 | 53.0% |
| NY JETS @ OAKLAND | 2 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 50.3% |
| SEATTLE @ DALLAS | 6 | 7.8 | 1.8 | 50.8% |
| MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO | 1 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 50.0% |
| TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON | -4 | -11.5 | -7.5 | 50.0% |
| DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY | -5 | -7.3 | -2.3 | 50.0% |
| GREEN BAY @ DENVER | 3.5 | -5.5 | -9.0 | 49.6% |
| NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS | -3.5 | -8.2 | -4.7 | 48.8% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.