2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Atlanta -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cincinnati +1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Carolina -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

This is frustrating. Baltimore's blocked kick in the last 5 minutes saved us from complete embarrassment. Last week's 1-2 record could've also been better because PIT shouldn't have been a pick given Ben nor Vick were starting. It is time to turn things around. We are right in the middle of the season and there should be valuable data feeding these models.

Lots of picks this week yet none of them are underdogs. We got 2 home favorite picks (ATL, CAR) and a road team (CIN). We continue using 17% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $500 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -7 -15.6 -8.6 60.0%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH -1.5 5.7 7.2 58.3%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CAROLINA -7 -15.8 -8.8 57.3%
SAN DIEGO @ BALTIMORE -3 -9.1 -6.1 56.1%
ARIZONA @ CLEVELAND 5.5 12.1 6.6 55.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DETROIT 5 2.5 -2.5 54.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS -8.5 -13.9 -5.4 54.0%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND -8 -1.2 6.8 53.0%
NY JETS @ OAKLAND 2 5.8 3.8 50.3%
SEATTLE @ DALLAS 6 7.8 1.8 50.8%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO 1 8.3 7.3 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON -4 -11.5 -7.5 50.0%
DETROIT @ KANSAS CITY -5 -7.3 -2.3 50.0%
GREEN BAY @ DENVER 3.5 -5.5 -9.0 49.6%
NY GIANTS @ NEW ORLEANS -3.5 -8.2 -4.7 48.8%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Cleveland +6 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore +9 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Here we are almost half way through and the NFL picks are struggling to go above 50%. Now that the models have enough data, I hope the models get good data in and the picks make a good turnaround. My week 7 picks are actually not that great. Last year they went 1-3 and the year before that 2-2.

I don't like that much that the 3 picks are visiting teams, but I can't put emotions to this. I'm not sure if Big Ben is playing but I think this play is mostly against KC. This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. As we do every week, the statistically-driven NFL point spread picks are show below, for free.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CLEVELAND @ ST LOUIS -6 -3.5 2.5 68.0%
BALTIMORE @ ARIZONA -9 -4.8 4.2 68.0%
PITTSBURGH @ KANSAS CITY -3 5.5 8.5 58.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS -4 -4.8 -0.8 56.3%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO 6 4.6 -1.4 55.0%
ATLANTA @ TENNESSEE 4.5 15.5 11.0 55.0%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO -4 -6.2 -2.2 54.4%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI -4 -8.5 -4.5 52.6%
TAMPA BAY @ WASHINGTON -3.5 -11.5 -8.0 51.2%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT 3 3.0 0.0 50.0%
BUFFALO - JACKSONVILLE 5.5 7.8 2.3 50.0%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND -9 -7.7 1.3 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ CAROLINA -3 5.9 8.9 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ INDIANAPOLIS -5 -4.7 0.3 49.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Minnesota -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Atlanta -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: New England -8 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Ok, 2 out of 3 ain't bad, but I'm really dying here for a perfect week to take me to green quickly. We'll get there, patience I tell myself.

I don't like that the model picked four favorites this week, but these teams seem to be under-valued. New England is probably going to go strong, again and continue its streak and the spread won't adjust until they're 10-0 and then they'll end up with above 17 point spreads. Minnesota is a risky bet although I liked that the data picked up without even know that Charles is out (which hopefully helps the Vikings). Atlanta is another team that's putting a lot of points and I don't see the Saints being able to keep up. Houston is probably just a bet against Jacksonville, that's an ugly game you probably don't want to watch.

This week we stay at 17% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 6 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ MINNESOTA -3.5 -9.1 -5.6 60.6%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS 3 20.9 17.9 60.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ INDIANAPOLIS 8 19.8 11.8 58.2%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE 1.5 7 5.5 57.0%
BALTIMORE @ SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 7.2 4.7 56.5%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -6.5 -4.5 2.0 54.2%
SAN DIEGO @ GREEN BAY -10 -12.4 -2.4 52.7%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA -3.5 -5.7 -2.2 51.4%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE -2.5 -7.0 -4.5 50.0%
ARIZONA @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 12.7 9.2 50.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY JETS -6 -4.2 1.8 50.0%
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO 3.5 3.9 0.4 50.0%
DENVER @ CLEVELAND 5 4.9 -0.1 49.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT -3 -0.3 2.7 49.2%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Pick 1: Buffalo -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indianapolis +2 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Cincinnati -3 PUSH

Another ugly week. We used to wait until week 5 to put official picks but I changed that last year. Probably a bad idea, but at least now hopeful the algorithm will catch up and start winning again. This week we're betting for 3 visiting team and a home team. Indianapolis will find a way to win that game, Denver's defense should help cover and Buffalo will come out swinging. Lynch is out and Cincinnati is killing it.

This week we raise the pool to 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $400 per game. Week 5 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BUFFALO @ TENNESSEE 2.5 9.7 7.2 62.7%
DENVER @ OAKLAND 5 18.0 13.0 58.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -2 3.2 5.2 59.0%
SEATTLE @ CINCINNATI -3 -6.2 -3.2 57.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TAMPA BAY -3 3.3 6.3 56.0%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT 3 -0.4 -3.4 54.9%
ST LOUIS @ GREEN BAY -9.5 -16.2 -6.7 51.4%
CHICAGO @ KANSAS CITY -9 -7.3 1.7 51.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ NY GIANTS -7 -5.3 1.7 51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA -7.5 -4.8 2.7 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DALLAS 9.5 5.3 -4.2 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE -6.5 -12.9 -6.4 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ SAN DIEGO -3.5 -0.8 2.7 49.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA -5 -7.4 -2.4 48.9%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 4

Pick 1: Arizona -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Carolina -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

What an ugly week last one. This week we have more data for the teams this year and I also shifted more weight to 2015s games. bad picks against Arizona and the Packers. These two teams and New England should probably not be faded until the spread adjusts accordingly. This week we go with two 7 point home favorites and a visiting favorites. Chicago as a home dog almost made it, but even though they're playing Oakland I can't bet for my own Bears.

Arizona and Denver should cover at home. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. week 4 data-driven NFL point spread picks are below.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA -7 -10.3 -3.3 62.8%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY 3.5 5.5 2.0 58.9%
MINNESOTA @ DENVER -7 -12.2 -5.2 57.0%
OAKLAND @ CHICAGO 3 0.2 -2.8 56.3%
MIAMI - NY JETS -2 1.7 3.7 54.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI -4 1.9 5.9 54.0%
DETROIT @ SEATTLE -10 -8.9 1.1 52.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON 3.5 6,5 3.0 51.9%
HOUSTON @ ATLANTA -7 -3 4 51.1%
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO 9.5 6.5 -3.0 50.4%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS -9 -12.5 -3.5 50.5%
NY GIANTS @ BUFFALO -5.5 -10.7 -5.2 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ SAN DIEGO -7.5 -9.0 -1.5 49.2%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS -4 4.5 8.5 NA
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH 3 6.0 3.0 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.