2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 4

Last week of unofficial picks. That means, starting next week we begin our official NFL pick betting strategy. Our goal is to continue to improve last year's 93% ROI. Every week, a number of games are selected and based on the current bankroll (now at $2K), we use Kelly's formula to determine what percentage of the bankroll to use each week. That money will then be distributed evenly to each game of the week. Stick with me, don't add/substract games, use my system and together we will beat the NFL point spread.

Please help! I want to know if you can help me determine which team will have the best record against the spread at the end of the regular season. Each week, you can put your vote HERE. It only takes a second, and if together we can determine early a conclusive winner, picking that team (or set of teams) might give us another great strategy. After your vote, you will see a link to view the results overall and by week. Thanks in advance.

As for point spread picks for week four, here are these week's system results:

Unofficial Pick 1: Seattle -1
Unofficial Pick 2: Chicago +4
Unofficial Pick 3: Houston -3
Unofficial Pick 4: Cincinnati -3

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	1	4.1	3.9	60.0%
CHICAGO @ NY GIANTS	-4	7.4	11.4	58.1%
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND	3	9.9	6.9	56.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	3	5.3	2.3	54.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE	7.5	13.9	6.4	55.0%
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA	-6	-8.2	-2.2	54.8%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ATLANTA	-7	-2.6	4.4	54.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN DIEGO	-8	-5.0	3.0	51.7%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-1.5	-3.0	-1.5	51.4%
DENVER @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-2.1	4.6	50.0%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-14.5	-20.6	-6.1	48.6%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-13.5	-21.6	-8.1	47.8%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	5.5	2.5	-3.5	47.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	1	3	2.0	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 3

NFL Statistics Models are liking the big spreads this week. New England looks very tempting, Minnesota not quite until we see Favre do something or have Rice back, and Baltimore not really until they can show that they can score more than 10 points.

Pittsburgh can destroy Tampa, but having Ben out is bringing this spread down. Also Tampa is 2-0 against mediocre teams. Can the defense and the running game be enough to take this pick? I wouldn't take the risk and would put my money elsewhere.

NC is a disaster right now and although Cinci is 1-1, they are playing good enough to handle a mediocre team. Houston is a close one, and I usually do not like to take risks when the prediction is so close to the spread. Do you believe in momentum? At home? I don't, but it might work. This young Houston team will show its Texas counterpart that the stars are bright in Houston.

Unofficial Pick 1: New England -14
Unofficial Pick 2: Minnesota -10.5
Unofficial Pick 3: Cincinnati -3
Unofficial Pick 4: Houston -3

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-14	-15.1	-1.1	58.1%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	-10.5	-22.5	-12.0	57.9%
PITTSBURGH @ TAMPA BAY	2.5	10.4	7.9	57.8%
CINCINNATI @ CAROLINA	3	6	3	57.1%
DALLAS @ HOUSTON	-3	-4.4	-1.4	56.3%
OAKLAND @ ARIZONA	-4	-15.3	-11.3	55.8%
TENNESSEE @ NY GIANTS	-3	1.8	4.8	55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ KANSAS CITY	2.5	12.0	9.5	54.8%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-4	-13.4	-9.4	51.7%
SAN DIEGO @ SEATTLE	5.5	6.9	1.4	51.4%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-10.5	-17.1	-6.6	48.6%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-2	0.4	2.4	46.8%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER	5.5	2.8	-2.7	46.1%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	3	6.1	3.1	45.0%
WASHINGTON @ ST LOUIS	3.5	8.0	4.5	45.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ JACKSONVILLE	3	-3.5	-6.5	45.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL ATS Standings 2010

Final point spread standings for the regular NFL season 2010.

NFL Team standings against the point spread - 2010.
Updated: 1/3/2011

Team	W	L	T	Pct
DETROIT	12	3	1	80%
ATLANTA	11	5	0	69%
NEW ENGLAND	10	5	1	67%
TAMPA BAY	9	5	2	64%
PITTSBURGH	10	6	0	63%
ST LOUIS	10	6	0	63%
WASHINGTON	8	5	3	62%
CHICAGO	9	6	1	60%
GREEN BAY	9	7	0	56%
JACKSONVILLE	9	7	0	56%
KANSAS CITY	9	7	0	56%
NY JETS	9	7	0	56%
BALTIMORE	8	7	1	53%
INDIANAPOLIS	8	7	1	53%
MIAMI	8	8	0	50%
OAKLAND	8	8	0	50%
PHILADELPHIA	8	8	0	50%
SAN DIEGO	8	8	0	50%
TENNESSEE	8	8	0	50%
BUFFALO	7	7	2	50%
CINCINNATI	7	9	0	44%
NEW ORLEANS	7	9	0	44%
NY GIANTS	7	9	0	44%
SAN FRANCISCO	7	9	0	44%
SEATTLE	7	9	0	44%
DALLAS	6	10	0	38%
DENVER	6	10	0	38%
CLEVELAND	5	10	1	33%
HOUSTON	5	10	1	33%
ARIZONA	5	11	0	31%
MINNESOTA	5	11	0	31%
CAROLINA	4	12	0	25%

Reflection of Week 2's Unofficial Picks

This week's picks were terrible, but more consistent with previous week 2 picks. In the past 3 years, my week 2 picks have been an awful 1-9 ATS. I am surprised they have been so lop-sided on the losing side, I would expect them to be closer to 50%.

My data consists of team statistics: scores, offensive, defensive, and special teams stats. Therefore, changes in the offseason are not accounted for. This week's KC vs CLE is a good example where KC is an improved team while CLE is not. When a team loses a QB or other key player, all bets are off, e.g. Detroit. So during the year you will see high confidence game where picks are not made when a participating team loses a key player (this is art less science part of the picks).

Starting on week 5, I will provide picks as you've been seeing them along with a betting strategy. This strategy optimizes winnings while minimizing the risk of bankruptcy. The models ran will also weigh recent games more heavily and the strength of schedule will be accounted. For now, lets wait calmly and let the data sink in.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2

Not a bad week 1. Thank you all for the comments and emails. I promise to get back to all of you after this week's vacation in Texas. The last two seasons the first few weeks picks were not good so it is better to let the stats sink in first.

What a great season! You are already starting to see the teams that will shine and those that won't. Will NO and SF be overrated? Houston underrated? Lets capture a bit more data this week, stay on the bench and see how it all plays out this week. Below are the non-official NFL spread picks for week 2.

Pick 1: Cleveland -1.5
Pick 2: Tennessee -5
Pick 3: Baltimore -1.5
Pick 4: Houston -3 PUSH

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND	-1.5	-4.8	-3.3	68.6%
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE	-5	-7.5	-2.5	59.0%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	1.5	6.3	4.8	58.1%
HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON	3	5	2.0	57%
NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO	4.5	2.5	-2.0	55.2%
ST LOUIS @ OAKLAND	-4	-7.0	-3.0	53.3%
NY GIANTS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-3.5	2.0	53.2%
SEATTLE @ DENVER	-3.5	-5	-1.5	53.8%
BUFFALO @ GREEN BAY	-13	-12.1	0.9	50.5%
MIAMI @ MINNESOTA	-5.5	-3	2.5	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	1.5	4.2	2.7	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ SAN DIEGO	-8	-7.0	1.0	50.0%
CHICAGO @ DALLAS	-8.5	-17.6	-9.1	48.4%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA	-6.5	-10.9	-4.4	48.3%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-2.5	-9.1	-10.2	47.6%
PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT	4	1.6	9.8	46.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1

No official picks or bets placed on Week 1. I will be giving my models at least a couple of weeks of data before trusting these results to make a comfortable wager. Had this been a regular week, here is how I would've played it out.

Pick 1: New England -4.5
Pick 2: Green Bay -3
Pick 3: Indi -2.5
Pick 4: Minnesota +4.5 (probably not because of Rice's injury)

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND	-4.5	-7.0	-2.5	62.5%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA	3	6.5	3.5	60.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	2.5	4.2	1.7	58.1%
MINNESOTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-4.5	-2.5	2.0	57.5%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE	-2.5	9.7	12.2	57.1%
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY	-3	1.5	4.5	56.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	2.5	11.6	9.1	54.8%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	4	5.0	1.0	53.1%
BALTIMORE @ NY JETS	-2	3.3	5.3	52.7%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	4	3.5	-0.5	51.2%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS	-7	-6.1	0.9	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	5.5	11.6	6.1	50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	-6	-13.8	-7.8	48.4%
OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-10.9	-4.4	48.3%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	3	1.6	-1.4	46.1%
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH	2.5	-2.6	-5.1	45.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.