2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 1

No official picks or bets placed on Week 1. I will be giving my models at least a couple of weeks of data before trusting these results to make a comfortable wager. Had this been a regular week, here is how I would've played it out.

Pick 1: New England -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Indi -2.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Minnesota +4.5 (probably not because of Rice's injury)

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CINCINNATI @ NEW ENGLAND-4.5-7.0-2.562.5%
DENVER @ JACKSONVILLE-2.59.712.257.1%
CLEVELAND @ TAMPA BAY-31.54.556.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE2.511.69.154.8%
BALTIMORE @ NY JETS-23.35.352.7%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS43.5-0.551.2%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS-7-6.10.950.0%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY5.511.66.150.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO-6-13.8-7.848.4%
OAKLAND @ TENNESSEE-6.5-10.9-4.448.3%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO31.6-1.446.1%
ATLANTA @ PITTSBURGH2.5-2.6-5.145.0%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


Anonymous said…
Best of luck again this year, Jamie.

I'm doing my picks from the other side of the world. I've tuned up my model with some knowledge I've gleaned from working for The House.

But, then, it's pretty hard to watch the games and keep up with the news now, so I expect you'll outperform me.

On the other hand, I don't have anywhere convenient to wager without getting fired, so it's cheap to be wrong.

Here's my week 1 picks.. always a rough cut:

472 Eagles +3
454 Giants -7
475 Cardinals -4
stephen said…

good luck to you this year! i have a quick question. the phrase "positive implies visiting team will cover spread" isn't that only the case in certain circumstances? for instance, your cin vs ne pick has a positive in the category, but cin isn't the pick, right?

looking forward to a great year.
Jaime said…

That was a bug, thanks for noticing. It should be negative for the CIN @ NE game.

That number is simply my estimate minus the Vegas spread. It is always is positive if I favor the visiting team and negative if I favor the home team.

I had to rewrite part of that code and flipped the signs. After running this week's models, I noticed the error and manually changed it.
Mike d. said…
Definitely don't like the Minnesota pick for couple of reasons:
1. Rice injury
2. NO at Home
3. Likelyhood of Favre repeating what he did last year (by far his career year) is slim in a best case scenario, and I don't think he's anywhere near 100% right now.
4. Minn has VERY weak secondary.

I wouldn't be surprised if it ended up being an easy NO win.

Other picks I like this week are:

Indy -2.5 - too much emphasis is being put on last season's two results.
Balt +2.5 - Jets are overrated, even with Revis.
SD -4.5- KC is no where near the same calibre team as SD...even at home.

Also agree with dtBy's picks of the Giants and Cardinals, not so much the Eagles pick though. Both them and Washington are going to be tough to pick early with the changes at QB.
Jaime said…
Mike d.,

I agree with you. Just before your comment, I had removed the green light on Minnesota. Definitely would like to see how Favre does this year, and I'm with you that he will regress to career averages, especially with Rice out.

I also like your SD pick. I highlighted in blue the Bears game because of the big difference between estimate and spread but it is about the same for the SD/KC game.
DDW said…

My picks vs yours:

NE -4.5
GB -3.0
HOU +2.5

The houston pick seems like a long shot to me, but that's the way the coin lands on this one.

P.S. As you mentioned above about the CHI vs DET game, because this is on the lower side of 50%, doesn't this mean that the pick is reversed? Detroit would actually be your pick if you had selected this game.
Jaime said…

How can I go against my beloved Bears? I could if I follow my advice on putting feelings aside. You are right, I would reverse the pick.
But when the Prediction-Vegas difference is big like this one, it is worth examining the game in more detail. Either way, at 48/52%, it would not be a pick.
djoliva said…
jamie, i just found this blog and looks very interesting. i was wondering how you determine confidence?

HappyBreathNet said…
You were right on NE, I had Cinncy. I flopped on Indy right along with you. I am proud to say I had Baltimore and Pittsburgh, though I didn't put money where my mouth was.

This week I have Buffalo to beat the spread with NE, NO, and OAK to cover.