2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2
Not a bad week 1. Thank you all for the comments and emails. I promise to get back to all of you after this week's vacation in Texas. The last two seasons the first few weeks picks were not good so it is better to let the stats sink in first.
What a great season! You are already starting to see the teams that will shine and those that won't. Will NO and SF be overrated? Houston underrated? Lets capture a bit more data this week, stay on the bench and see how it all plays out this week. Below are the non-official NFL spread picks for week 2.
Pick 1: Cleveland -1.5
Pick 2: Tennessee -5
Pick 3: Baltimore -1.5
Pick 4: Houston -3 PUSH
How to read the table:
What a great season! You are already starting to see the teams that will shine and those that won't. Will NO and SF be overrated? Houston underrated? Lets capture a bit more data this week, stay on the bench and see how it all plays out this week. Below are the non-official NFL spread picks for week 2.
Pick 1: Cleveland -1.5
Pick 2: Tennessee -5
Pick 3: Baltimore -1.5
Pick 4: Houston -3 PUSH
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND | -1.5 | -4.8 | -3.3 | 68.6% |
| PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE | -5 | -7.5 | -2.5 | 59.0% |
| BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI | 1.5 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 58.1% |
| HOUSTON @ WASHINGTON | 3 | 5 | 2.0 | 57% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ SAN FRANCISCO | 4.5 | 2.5 | -2.0 | 55.2% |
| ST LOUIS @ OAKLAND | -4 | -7.0 | -3.0 | 53.3% |
| NY GIANTS @ INDIANAPOLIS | -5.5 | -3.5 | 2.0 | 53.2% |
| SEATTLE @ DENVER | -3.5 | -5 | -1.5 | 53.8% |
| BUFFALO @ GREEN BAY | -13 | -12.1 | 0.9 | 50.5% |
| MIAMI @ MINNESOTA | -5.5 | -3 | 2.5 | 50.0% |
| NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS | 1.5 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 50.0% |
| JACKSONVILLE @ SAN DIEGO | -8 | -7.0 | 1.0 | 50.0% |
| CHICAGO @ DALLAS | -8.5 | -17.6 | -9.1 | 48.4% |
| ARIZONA @ ATLANTA | -6.5 | -10.9 | -4.4 | 48.3% |
| TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA | -2.5 | -9.1 | -10.2 | 47.6% |
| PHILADELPHIA @ DETROIT | 4 | 1.6 | 9.8 | 46.1% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
KC +1.5
PIT +5
BAL -1.5
WAS +3
I'm just wondering why your prediction of the NO vs SF game shows SF covering. Can you explain?
The BAL pick also scares me a little after they lost both games last season to CIN. I think they're clearly the better team, but the recent history scares me a little.
If NO was a 4.5 favourite against MIN at home, I don't see how they can only be a 4.5 favourite against SF on the road. Whatever advantage SF gains from being at home is more than mitigated by the fact that they're not as good as MIN. I think NO wins this one easy.
You are not convincing me to do more work for you, give me some lovin' and I'll consider bolding all sides.