2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 2

Not a bad week 1. Thank you all for the comments and emails. I promise to get back to all of you after this week's vacation in Texas. The last two seasons the first few weeks picks were not good so it is better to let the stats sink in first.

What a great season! You are already starting to see the teams that will shine and those that won't. Will NO and SF be overrated? Houston underrated? Lets capture a bit more data this week, stay on the bench and see how it all plays out this week. Below are the non-official NFL spread picks for week 2.

Pick 1: Cleveland -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Tennessee -5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Baltimore -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston -3 PUSH

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ CLEVELAND-1.5-4.8-3.368.6%
ST LOUIS @ OAKLAND-4-7.0-3.053.3%
SEATTLE @ DENVER-3.5-5-1.553.8%
BUFFALO @ GREEN BAY-13-12.10.950.5%
MIAMI @ MINNESOTA-5.5-32.550.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS1.54.22.750.0%
CHICAGO @ DALLAS-8.5-17.6-9.148.4%
ARIZONA @ ATLANTA-6.5-10.9-4.448.3%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA-2.5-9.1-10.247.6%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


DDW said…
Good week last week Jaime. My picks vs yours this week are as follows:

KC +1.5
PIT +5
BAL -1.5
WAS +3

I'm just wondering why your prediction of the NO vs SF game shows SF covering. Can you explain?
Jaime said…
DDW, I can't explain, it just is. I had to check that twice because it was weird for me as well. We'll see how it plays out.
Mike d. said…
I'm not too confident on the Cleveland pick against a KC team that just beat SD. KC is much improved...CLE, not so much. Also factor in that Seneca Wallace might be starting at QB there.

The BAL pick also scares me a little after they lost both games last season to CIN. I think they're clearly the better team, but the recent history scares me a little.

If NO was a 4.5 favourite against MIN at home, I don't see how they can only be a 4.5 favourite against SF on the road. Whatever advantage SF gains from being at home is more than mitigated by the fact that they're not as good as MIN. I think NO wins this one easy.
Unknown said…
picks this week were not so good. could you bold your picks for all the games. not just the ones you are betting on.
Jaime said…
DDW glad you didn't follow you feelings and went with NO? Great game, did you watch it? I'm glad you did well this week.
Jaime said…
bchukwu, yes I know picks weren't good, but they don't count. We are waiting 'till week 5.

You are not convincing me to do more work for you, give me some lovin' and I'll consider bolding all sides.
Unknown said…
i give you props man, last yr you were consistently good even on picks you didn't bet on