Reflection of Week 2's Unofficial Picks

This week's picks were terrible, but more consistent with previous week 2 picks. In the past 3 years, my week 2 picks have been an awful 1-9 ATS. I am surprised they have been so lop-sided on the losing side, I would expect them to be closer to 50%.

My data consists of team statistics: scores, offensive, defensive, and special teams stats. Therefore, changes in the offseason are not accounted for. This week's KC vs CLE is a good example where KC is an improved team while CLE is not. When a team loses a QB or other key player, all bets are off, e.g. Detroit. So during the year you will see high confidence game where picks are not made when a participating team loses a key player (this is art less science part of the picks).

Starting on week 5, I will provide picks as you've been seeing them along with a betting strategy. This strategy optimizes winnings while minimizing the risk of bankruptcy. The models ran will also weigh recent games more heavily and the strength of schedule will be accounted. For now, lets wait calmly and let the data sink in.

2 comments:

dtBy said...

Does this mean no posted picks until week 5? I still enjoy reading them, even if you aren't building your bankroll.

I had a solid week (3-1), but I have always been lucky.

Good luck, as always.

Jaime said...

Congrats dtBy, I saw that. No, I will still post each week's picks.