NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 7

Got a bit cocky last week and didn't deliver winning results going 2-3 ATS for a loss. This week we bounce back, leave the emotions behind, and roll with the punches no matter how ugly they may seem. Here we go!

NEW ENGLAND -7

No brainer right? Belichick owns the Jets. The Patriots haven't won at home yet. If they lose, hell will break loose at Foxborough. This is an important game for Mac, Bill, and the rest of the Patriots. I can't say the same thing about the Jets. 

  • The models estimate this game at two or three TD difference. Confidence also high. 
  • The Patriots blew them out not too long ago. That's not enough time for Zach Wilson to figure it out. 
  • Home teams favorite by 7 are 56% ATS in the last 123 games
  • 91% of the bets AND money are on the Patriots. Does this move to 7.5 soon?

Don't over think it. Belichick won't give in. Mac Jones continues to get better. The Patriots D currently ranked 11th hold this Jets offense, maybe get a score, and cover.

CHICAGO +12.5

Another ugly bet. Potential blowout potential against the worst QB in the NFL. There are only two reasons why this bet makes sense:

  • The Bears defense is ranked 6th against the pass. Stop the passing game and the Bucs game slows down significantly
  • The sharps are on the Bears with me. 43% and 65% of the money on the Bears

After that you can start talking about Tom Brady and the Super Bowl champs and you would probably want to stay away. Leave those emotions aside and put the money on the Bears defense to keep this game close.

There are two other locked picks you can get on my Rokfin channel. It's gonna be a great Sunday!


 

NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 6

For all 5 official picks visit my Rokfin page. $9.99/mo or $99/year. You get 2 of the 5 free here. Keep reading.

3-1 ATS last week and 68.8% across all games for the models. For this week, you will read that not only the statistical models are capturing opportunity, but bias, DVOA, and overall situational trends are all aligning very well. We roll this week with a few road teams getting under valued just because they are on the road and as always some recency bias from last week's games. This might be too good to be true, but some of these spreads seem way off. Let's dig in.

HOUSTON +9.5
Not my cup of tea of betting Houston, but I do think their defense is slightly better than it is given credit. Plus IND is not a dominant team so this is not a David vs Goliath scenario. It is currently ranked 15th according to DVOA. Houston's problem is the offense but maybe with veteran Danny Amendola back this week they will get enough boost to cover this week's biggest spread across all games. I've also never been a big fan of Carson Wentz and this looks like too many points for him, here's why:
  • All my statistical models have IND winning, but by a field goal or at most a TD. The situational confidence is big meaning that when the models predict this same situation, they are correct over 70% of them time across 45 games in this case.
  • Strength of schedule is also on our side. Although not a big difference, IND has had an average schedule while HOU has 6% above average for the rankings of their opponents
  • Houston's rank rushing the ball is last. Ingram and Lindsey haven't done their job, is this a good bounce back? IND is 22nd overall on defense with a slighter edge on rushing which means if anything is weak is the pass. Good sign since Houston can't run.
  • In the last 127 games, home teams favorite between 8.5 and 10 points are 45% ATS. If you narrow it to 9.5 home favorite, then they are 32% in 50 games
  • QB Rating: not much difference. Slight edge to Wentz
  • Both teams last week lost close games and blew big leads, yet one of them is almost a two digit favorite and that team was on MNF (short rest)
  • Lots of money coming in for Houston, 64% of bets yet over 90% of the money. Sharps (like me) like the underdog here.
DALLAS -4
When is Dallas going to get the respect they deserve? They are the only undefeated team against the spread and are only getting 4 points against the Patriots. Is it because they covered against the Bucs? My conspiracy theory is that the game was fixed; keep it interesting Brady but we know you're better so in the end you'll get the win. Dallas on the other hand is on a tear and signals a potential blowout. A spread of 6.5, 7, or 7.5 is likely the better one. You also have that:
  • All the simulation models have this game as a blowout of 21 points to 8 points at the least. The road team favorite with a blowout prediction is a very high confidence situation
  • Dallas strength of schedule has been much tougher. They rank 9th to the Patriots 28th
  • The #2 ranked team vs #20 just that should be at least a TD. DAL defense which wasn't supposed to be good is ranked 6th and 3rd against the rush which will put the ball more into the hands of Mac Jones, great!
  • As always, the sharps bet against the Cowboys but not the public. That's a bad sign, but they have been wrong all year about the Cowboys talented team now that the defense is not an issue (for now). 82% of bets and 55% of the $
  • Who's got the QB advantage? Dak >>> Mac #3 vs #25 ranked QBs in the league. That's a huge difference.
Thursday Night Football
Mixed results for a 7 point spread for the models. Some at 10 and some under 7. Trends, QB, and rankings would favor the Bucs to cover, but it could also be a close game like their last year's game vs the Bears. Stay away for me. Sharps are on the Eagles crossing that majority barrier to get 52% of the money but only 29% of the bets.

Sunday Night Football
Russel Wilson is out. Who knows how Seattle will do without him. Seems like this is not their year and will fall apart soon. Blindly going with the Steelers who are so on and off as well, but at home on prime time should show up, at least their defense will knowing it's a backup QB.

Monday Night Football
For Monday Night Football's official pick and 2 more for a total of 5 official picks this week, visit this link:



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NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 5

Four weeks in, gives statistical model something good to work with. Add the stat rankings, trends, strength of schedule, injury report, and we can find opportunities in week 5. Only one team is undefeated against the spread and all teams have covered at least once on the ATS Standings. This week we are going to capitalize on strong teams with hard schedules so far against weak teams, yes some chalk. We will talk about Thursday Night and Sunday Night football but being cautious because they could be traps. Let's dig in.

SAN FRANCISCO +5.5
Although San Francisco may be a bit banged up with Kittle and Garoppolo questionable for Sunday, this Cardinals team has been riding too high so far. This divisional game can go either way and getting 5.5 points maybe even 6 seems like something to jump on. 

  • All models in the ensemble have the 49ers winning or at least covering. The situational confidence is highest of all
  • In the last 123 games, home favorites less than 7 but more than 5 have only covered 33% of the time
  • The schedule has been slightly tougher for SF. They rank 6 vs 12 for ARI
  • Surprisingly, these teams are ranked by DVOA similar on offense, but ARI is ranked 6th on defense. The opportunity is in SF running the ball as ARI is ranked 16th against the run
  • If Trey Lance plays QB for SF I like this game even more as he can run the ball. We do need Kittle though.
TENNESSEE -4.5
Keep fading Jacksonville especially against Derek Henry. This spread should be more like 7 but giving that Tennessee is visiting and recency bias from Jacksonville looking semi decent last week and the Jets beating the Titans this is the number we get. Although we don't know if AJ Brown or Julio Jones will play this week, they are more likely to suit up than they were last week. 
  • The smallest prediction was at 6, highest at 19. This is a potential blowout with great chances given they are road favorite by less than a TD
  • In the last 161 games, road favorites less than a TD but more than a field goal are 55% ATS
  • DVOA doesn't give much edge to TEN but the variance is key as JAC has been consistently (low variance) bad while TEN has one of the highest variance
  • Trey Lawrence (and a bunch of rookie QBs) haven't shown they can hang in this league yet. I like Tannehill here over Lawrence
  • Tennessee is coming from a loss against the Jets, recency bias. The Jets also have a much better defense than the Jaguars
  • Everyone, public and sharks, are betting Tennessee. Get it soon. This spread could go up quick.
There are two more opportunities plus my take on TNF and MNF in this article. From week 5 forward they are exclusive to my channel on Rokfin. If you subscribe through my channel, you get all the premium content on Rokfin. Football, Free Thinking Media, Spirituality, and even Aliens. Go get some and download the mobile app.