NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 13

Another winning week! This is my best year so far and as you know my specialty is the playoffs and the Super Bowl. Let's keep it rolling! I'm confident on these 4 winning NFL spread picks for week 13. All stars align. The machine learning models, the QB, strength of schedule, ATS trends. We go through it all.

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Free pick of the week!

Rams -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Glad that data science can't get biased by one miserable game. The Rams coming off a humiliating loss against imo the best team in the NFL right now. With all their wide receivers back in the lineup, this offense should look much better than last game.
 - Arizona's D is ranked #30 in DVOA.
 - Huge recency bias here
 - Rams D at #8 but has performed as top 5 in many games

 - 41% of the tickets but 59% of the money on Rams. That crosses the 50% mark.

New England -3  (SNF) 
Although New England's offense looks horrible, they find a way to win (and cover). Glad we stayed away last week, when in the last second a field goal would've covered. This Houston team doesn't have many weapons so I expect Belichick and their D to neutralize the Watson Hopkins combo.
 - 62% of the money. Sharps betting Houston but not enough to cross the 60% line.
 - Patriots are 62% ATS on SNF since 2009. Why over think it?
 - Houston's run offense ranked #14 is not ranked high enough to take this D. 

Minnesota +3 (MNF) 
Again, all machine learning models have the Vikings winning this game. Everyone is talking about Russel Wilson for MVP, but there's been plenty of times where he's missed big opportunities. 

 - These offenses have similar rankings but there is a big advantage for the Vikings D.
 - Sharps on Vikings with 33% tickets and 62% of the money.
 - Keeping an eye on Thielen. Kirk Cousins says he's playing, but we'll wait and see.
 - The Vikings off a bye week.

Honorable mentions:

Buffalo +7 (Thanksgiving) correct NFL point spread pick
Both teams have faired pretty well against the spread (7-3-1 and 7-4 for Buffalo and Dallas respectively). 60% of the tickets and 71% of the money on Buffalo, a good sign that the sharps see this as a closer game and a potential win for the Bills. Machine learning models all pointing at Buffalo. The only big issue with this game and a good reason why I'll probably stay away is that Buffalo has had the easiest schedule of all the teams in the NFL. 

Atlanta +7 
Man I don't know if the models are weighting their last game more heavily or what, but besides my models and their confidence, everything else pushes me away from betting this game. The DVOA rankings in both defense and offense aren't even close. Maybe a contrarian angle? 80% of the tickets and money on the Saints. This is recipe for danger.

Cincinnati +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Not sure if to bet for or against the fact that Sam Darnold got wasted after last week's win. Models like Cincinnati but another change in QB would violate my rule to be in this game. It's probably the one game Cinci will win all season and Dalton isn't that bad so they cover. But I also don't want any part of this game.

San Francisco +6 correct NFL point spread pick
I can see why my models like the 49ers. Yes, the Ravens are red hot and they look unstoppable. But with the 49ers offense now being healthy, it's a tricky thing. I don't want to bet against Lamar Jackson, but this could be their let down spot. 

GameVegas LineEstimateDiffConfidence
LA RAMS @ ARIZONA3.06.63.660.0
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA7.01.2-5.856.6
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI*3.5-9.4-12.955.4
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS6.52.5-4.053.0
WASHINGTON @ CAROLINA-10.0-5.44.652.6
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY-10.0-12.7-2.750.2
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI9.07.5-1.550.0
LA CHARGERS @ DENVER1.05.94.940.0

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12

Another good week last week going 3-2 ATS. This week we have 5 great picks to diversify our portfolio. Tracking injuries and when the models are a viable resource has been a challenge, but with your help and our researchers we've done a good job at staying away from these games.

Indianapolis +3.5 (TNF) correct NFL point spread pick
All models pointing towards the Colts. The most confident of them at 61% but averaging 55%. TY Hilton as of this writing is questionable and Marlon Mack is out. Depending on TY Hilton's status, this would turn from a sprinkle of entertainment bet to an official pick. Check out this trend, Home Favorites after losing by more than 20 points are 44% ATS in 68 games. Fade the Texans, get some money.

Denver +4  
Again, all models pointing at a Broncos win by 3. There's 60% of the tickets going to the Bills but only 40% of the money. When this crosses the 50% mark, I really like going with the sharps. Although the biggest situational confidence is at 56% which is usually a no bet for me, the sharps angle took me over. Other angles: 
 - Fade Josh Allen after a great week against the Dolphins
 - Von Miller and the gang will apply heavy pressure on Allen
 - Buffalo ranks on the bottom 5 in DVOA against the run which is great for Lindsay

Atlanta -4  
What's going on in Atlanta? The streak continues this week as no one will be able to defend Julio Jones. Models pretty strong at 58% confidence and all estimating the final score to finish by a TD. Interception machine Winston will continue to slide and give this Falcons a chance to actually take the division (they're 2-0 so far). 

Seattle -1.5 correct NFL point spread pick
The spread opened at 3 and it has been bet down to 1.5 and at 1 in some places. So bet it quick!This team was able to score points against the 2nd best defense in the league and Tyler Locket will suit up for this one. Philly's offense isn't great. Couple of other key trends:
 - Seattle coming off a bye with Wilson is 5-2 ATS
 - Seattle is #4 on offense (stronger passing game) while Philly's defense is good but struggles a bit more against the pass.
 - Jordan Howard and Nelson Agholor are likely out. 
- Captain Class argument: Russel Wilson has played in 123 consecutive games with a winning record in all his 8 seasons. Carson Wentz isn't horrible at 16TD/4 INT but no match for Wilson's 23 TD and 2 INT. Let's go!

Baltimore -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Scott and I talked about this game on our podcast. I also tweeted the reasons why take Baltimore on this game. Now we know that was easy money.

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON -3.5 4.5 8.0 61.9
SEATTLE @ PHILADELPHIA -1.5 4.4 5.9 58.2
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA -4.5 -7.7 -3.2 58.1
DENVER @ BUFFALO -4.0 1.6 5.6 55.6
OAKLAND @ NY JETS 3.0 -1.3 -4.3 55.1
BALTIMORE @ LA RAMS 3.5 3.9 0.4 54.8
DALLAS @ NEW ENGLAND -6.5 -8.4 1.9 52.7
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS -9.5 -0.9 8.6 51.7
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE -3.0 1.9 4.9 50.0
MIAMI @ CLEVELAND -10.5 -12.7 -2.2 46.9
NY GIANTS @ CHICAGO -6.0 -8.8 -2.8 NA
GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO -3.0 -3.1 -0.1 NA/td>

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11

Huuuge week last week. Official picks covered 66% plus TNF, SNF, and MNF all covered as discussed in the podcast. The models are getting some juicy data and winning is now more dependent on keeping track of injuries and ensuring we're not going with a back up QB or a depleted offense or defense.

Carolina -5.5 
McCaffrey is a beast! Although the Atlanta defense is somewhat decent against the run (but 30 DVOA against the pass) it will be no match for McCaffrey. Recency bias towards Atlanta coming off that win against the Saints is in play here. Devonta Freeman and Austin Hooper are out for the Falcons. Carolina 5-2 ATS in last 7 games and all models pointing at the same direction with over 60% confidence. Lock it up.

Pittsburgh +3 
Why are the Steelers the underdogs in this game? The #4 defense according to DVOA against the QB with the second to most interceptions. Mike Tomlin performs well on primetime to keep his job. The Steelers are 6-2 ATS in primetime since 2016. 

New England -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
The Patriots coming off a bye are 14-5 with Belichick. New England is still the #1 defense even after their last game against the Ravens. Philadelphia can beat bad teams: Redskins, Bills, Jets but lose against good teams: Vikings and Cowboys. Brady with rest can't look worse than he has. Don't bet against them. 

Arizona +11.5 correct NFL point spread pick
This will be a game time decision based on George Kittle's status. The 49ers are banged up and coming off short rest after a looong game. Kyler Murray will run like or better than Russell Wilson did to win the game. Can't have so many points with Garappolo and a horrible kicker. Arizona to stay at the top of the ATS Standings.

Detroit -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Fade the backup QBs. The Cowboys offense is hot, the models are pointing at a 7 point spread and that's with Stafford. Let's roll.

Here are the week 11 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA -5.5 -9.5 -4.0 71.0
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND -3.0 6.0 9.0 67.9
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO -11.5 -1.9 9.6 59.7
NEW ENGLAND @ PHILLY 3.5 7.7 4.2 58.0
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY 6.0 8.3 2.3 56.1
DALLAS @ DETROIT 5.5 7.4 1.9 55.0
DENVER @ MINNESOTA -10.5 -6.9 3.6 54.5
NY JETS @ WASHINGTON -1.0 -11.5 -10.5 54.2
LA CHARGERS - KANSAS CITY -4.0 -6.5 -2.5 51.2
CHICAGO @ LA RAMS -6.5 -3.6 2.9 51.0
HOUSTON @ BALTIMORE -4.0 3.3 7.3 50.4
BUFFALO @ MIAMI 6.0 4.5 -1.5 49.7
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND -10.0 4.5 14.5 NA

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 10

Not a great week last week, the black cat Monday night saved us from total disaster. As the season continues more relevant data is fed and the accuracy increases. This week should be good based on what we've learned from last week. A couple of quick learnings:

1. Need to adjust the weight on strength of schedule. New England lost because they hadn't seen an offense like that in any of the previous games

2. No more Mexico or London game bets, period. 

This week we have some obvious picks and others that are a game time decision depending on injury reports. 

You can access ALL my picks exclusively on Rokfin. For a super low $9.99/mo subscription, you also get a lot of other cool combat sports a content. 

Free pick of the week!

Cincinnati +10 
A rookie QB getting his shot at becoming a starting QB for the NFL! You understand my models aren't great when there is a key player missing, but in this case we can assume this is an upgrade from Dalton who has thrown more interceptions than everyone but Mayfield. Also, home dogs by more than 7 coming off a bye are 69% (24 games) against the spread. Baltimore's offense was pretty impressive last game, but that also makes me think there's a recency bias. A divisional game like this should be closer, give me the home dog!

Arizona +4.5 correct NFL point spread pick
A Kyler Murray is looking better every week. All my models are pointing at an upset here with good confidence of 59% in this situation. Tampa has been on the road for the last 5 games which could have depleted them. 

Minnesota +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Dallas on short rest after an ugly win. The Giants were in that game the whole time until the black cat showed up. Dallas has one of the weakest strength of schedules and their defense isn't great agains the run. Dalvin Cook to do some damage here. All the Vikings need to do is bring a black cat.

Honorable mentions:

Oakland - models are mixed. Since 2000, homedogs by less than 3 in a divisional game are 59% ATS (55 games). Oakland has also one of the top 3 toughest schedules so far and their offense is 5 in DVOA! Can you believe that?

Here are the week 10 point spread machine learning predictions and their respective confidence on all NFL games this week. 

Game Vegas Line Estimate Diff Confidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI 10.0 8.9 -1.1 59.7
ARIZONA @ TAMPA BAY -4.5 1.0 5.5 59.4
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS -3.0 2.0 5.0 57.6
LA CHARGERS @ OAKLAND 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 55.6
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO -6.0 2.0 8.0 55.1
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND -3.0 2.0 5.0 53.6
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -3.0 2.0 5.0 53.6
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS -13.0 -8.0 5.0 50.3
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY -5.0 1.0 6.0 47.4
LA RAMS @ PITTSBURGH 3.5 0.9 -2.6 39.7
NY GIANTS @ NY JETS 2.0 -3.0 -5.0 45.5
MIAMI @ INDIANAPOLIS -10.5 -13.6 -3.1 NA