NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12
Another good week last week going 3-2 ATS. This week we have 5 great picks to diversify our portfolio. Tracking injuries and when the models are a viable resource has been a challenge, but with your help and our researchers we've done a good job at staying away from these games.
Indianapolis +3.5 (TNF) 
All models pointing towards the Colts. The most confident of them at 61% but averaging 55%. TY Hilton as of this writing is questionable and Marlon Mack is out. Depending on TY Hilton's status, this would turn from a sprinkle of entertainment bet to an official pick. Check out this trend, Home Favorites after losing by more than 20 points are 44% ATS in 68 games. Fade the Texans, get some money.
Denver +4
Again, all models pointing at a Broncos win by 3. There's 60% of the tickets going to the Bills but only 40% of the money. When this crosses the 50% mark, I really like going with the sharps. Although the biggest situational confidence is at 56% which is usually a no bet for me, the sharps angle took me over. Other angles:
- Fade Josh Allen after a great week against the Dolphins
- Von Miller and the gang will apply heavy pressure on Allen
- Buffalo ranks on the bottom 5 in DVOA against the run which is great for Lindsay
Atlanta -4
What's going on in Atlanta? The streak continues this week as no one will be able to defend Julio Jones. Models pretty strong at 58% confidence and all estimating the final score to finish by a TD. Interception machine Winston will continue to slide and give this Falcons a chance to actually take the division (they're 2-0 so far).
Seattle -1.5
The spread opened at 3 and it has been bet down to 1.5 and at 1 in some places. So bet it quick!This team was able to score points against the 2nd best defense in the league and Tyler Locket will suit up for this one. Philly's offense isn't great. Couple of other key trends:
- Seattle coming off a bye with Wilson is 5-2 ATS
- Seattle is #4 on offense (stronger passing game) while Philly's defense is good but struggles a bit more against the pass.
- Jordan Howard and Nelson Agholor are likely out.
- Captain Class argument: Russel Wilson has played in 123 consecutive games with a winning record in all his 8 seasons. Carson Wentz isn't horrible at 16TD/4 INT but no match for Wilson's 23 TD and 2 INT. Let's go!
Baltimore -3.5
Scott and I talked about this game on our podcast. I also tweeted the reasons why take Baltimore on this game. Now we know that was easy money.
All models pointing towards the Colts. The most confident of them at 61% but averaging 55%. TY Hilton as of this writing is questionable and Marlon Mack is out. Depending on TY Hilton's status, this would turn from a sprinkle of entertainment bet to an official pick. Check out this trend, Home Favorites after losing by more than 20 points are 44% ATS in 68 games. Fade the Texans, get some money.
Denver +4
Again, all models pointing at a Broncos win by 3. There's 60% of the tickets going to the Bills but only 40% of the money. When this crosses the 50% mark, I really like going with the sharps. Although the biggest situational confidence is at 56% which is usually a no bet for me, the sharps angle took me over. Other angles:
- Fade Josh Allen after a great week against the Dolphins
- Von Miller and the gang will apply heavy pressure on Allen
- Buffalo ranks on the bottom 5 in DVOA against the run which is great for Lindsay
Atlanta -4
What's going on in Atlanta? The streak continues this week as no one will be able to defend Julio Jones. Models pretty strong at 58% confidence and all estimating the final score to finish by a TD. Interception machine Winston will continue to slide and give this Falcons a chance to actually take the division (they're 2-0 so far).
Seattle -1.5
The spread opened at 3 and it has been bet down to 1.5 and at 1 in some places. So bet it quick!This team was able to score points against the 2nd best defense in the league and Tyler Locket will suit up for this one. Philly's offense isn't great. Couple of other key trends:
- Seattle coming off a bye with Wilson is 5-2 ATS
- Seattle is #4 on offense (stronger passing game) while Philly's defense is good but struggles a bit more against the pass.
- Jordan Howard and Nelson Agholor are likely out.
- Captain Class argument: Russel Wilson has played in 123 consecutive games with a winning record in all his 8 seasons. Carson Wentz isn't horrible at 16TD/4 INT but no match for Wilson's 23 TD and 2 INT. Let's go!
Baltimore -3.5
Scott and I talked about this game on our podcast. I also tweeted the reasons why take Baltimore on this game. Now we know that was easy money.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Diff | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON | -3.5 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 61.9 |
| SEATTLE @ PHILADELPHIA | -1.5 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 58.2 |
| TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA | -4.5 | -7.7 | -3.2 | 58.1 |
| DENVER @ BUFFALO | -4.0 | 1.6 | 5.6 | 55.6 |
| OAKLAND @ NY JETS | 3.0 | -1.3 | -4.3 | 55.1 |
| BALTIMORE @ LA RAMS | 3.5 | 3.9 | 0.4 | 54.8 |
| DALLAS @ NEW ENGLAND | -6.5 | -8.4 | 1.9 | 52.7 |
| CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS | -9.5 | -0.9 | 8.6 | 51.7 |
| JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE | -3.0 | 1.9 | 4.9 | 50.0 |
| MIAMI @ CLEVELAND | -10.5 | -12.7 | -2.2 | 46.9 |
| PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 6.5 | 9.6 | 3.1 | NA |
| DETROIT @ WASHINGTON | 3.5 | -1.6 | -5.1 | NA |
| NY GIANTS @ CHICAGO | -6.0 | -8.8 | -2.8 | NA |
| GREEN BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO | -3.0 | -3.1 | -0.1 | NA/td> |
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