Pick 2: Arizona +3
This was probably the most exciting set of playoffs games in a week! Aaron Rodgers stole another perfect week for us. I just couldn't believe that Arizona won by 6 and not by 7 (and force the push). That's what makes this so interesting. I guess we got paid back with the last minute useless field goal by the Steelers. The Carolina/Seattle game got really interesting and nerve wrecking in the second half but ended on the right side.
This NFL Divisional playoff week is so obvious that it makes me nervous. Who in their minds would bet Denver and Peyton "noodle arm" Manning against the reigning champions? I almost don't care what the numbers say, but I'm glad that my models are picking the Patriots. The public is definitely seeing this bias by far as more than 70% of the money is going to the Patriots.
As for the Arizona game, I'm very surprised sixty something percent of the public is picking Carolina. Maybe because they haven't lost at home this year? Or because they were up 31-0 against a weak Seattle team? Seattle shouldn't have even been there if it wasn't for the Vikings kicker. I'm not convinced on Carolina. They've had close games with weak teams. Arizona is solid and I'm glad my statistical models are picking the Cardinals.
We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 2 picks to give us a bet of $1,300 per game. Slide in a parlay if I were you...
|NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER||3||6.9||3.9||60.2%|
|ARIZONA @ CAROLINA||-3||2.9||5.9||58.3%|
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.