2015 NFL Point Spreads - Conference Champioship Playoffs

Pick 1: New England -3
Pick 2: Arizona +3

This was probably the most exciting set of playoffs games in a week! Aaron Rodgers stole another perfect week for us. I just couldn't believe that Arizona won by 6 and not by 7 (and force the push). That's what makes this so interesting. I guess we got paid back with the last minute useless field goal by the Steelers. The Carolina/Seattle game got really interesting and nerve wrecking in the second half but ended on the right side.

This NFL Divisional playoff week is so obvious that it makes me nervous. Who in their minds would bet Denver and Peyton "noodle arm" Manning against the reigning champions? I almost don't care what the numbers say, but I'm glad that my models are picking the Patriots. The public is definitely seeing this bias by far as more than 70% of the money is going to the Patriots.

As for the Arizona game, I'm very surprised sixty something percent of the public is picking Carolina. Maybe because they haven't lost at home this year? Or because they were up 31-0 against a weak Seattle team? Seattle shouldn't have even been there if it wasn't for the Vikings kicker. I'm not convinced on Carolina. They've had close games with weak teams. Arizona is solid and I'm glad my statistical models are picking the Cardinals.

We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 2 picks to give us a bet of $1,300 per game. Slide in a parlay if I were you...

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER	3	6.9	3.9	60.2%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA	-3	2.9	5.9	58.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Carolina -2.5
Pick 2: Arizona -7
Pick 3: Pittsburgh +7.5

What an exciting first week of playoffs! The games were exhilarating to watch, except for the Houston/KC one. Of course it helps to go 3-0 to say how exciting the games were.

This week it's totally different. The biggest difference is having all home favorites vs last week only Washington was favorite. My picks also was favoring visiting teams but not this week. Pittsburgh is all beat up and Denver is starting Peyton, that should be a no pick. But 1) the model is picking PIT, 2) Ben and Antonio will probably play,a nd 3) Peyton sucks (and he can't take his drugs anymore). Arizona as a 7 point favorite seems high and most bets are on Green Bay, but beating Washington shouldn't suddenly make the Packers a Super Bowl team. Seattle looked terrible at Minnesota and it may have been the weather, but Carolina's winning consistency makes me more comfortable about this pick. Finally, I can't bet against the Patriots as 5 point favorites on the divisional round of the playoffs so that's my no bet of the week.

We continue betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $765 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA	-2.5	-5.2	-2.7	59.6%
PITTSBURGH @ DENVER	-7.5	1	8.5	59.1%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA	-7	-9.3	-2.3	58.1%
KANSAS CITY @ NEW ENGLAND	-5	-6.5	-1.5	51.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Wild Card Playoffs

Pick 1: Green Bay 0
Pick 2: Minnesota +5.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -3.5

The playoffs are here! I'm excited to see great games and my teams win. This week the model is picking Packers, Vikings and Chiefs. Green Bay makes intuitive sense because who would've known that Washington would have made the playoffs. Green Bay has the playoffs experience and their receivers will finally get open. Minnesota is a dangerous pick because the Super Bowl losers are coming back strong. The numbers are the numbers and Seattle hasn't shown consistency while this young Minnesota team is eager for a win. Houston's D is strong, but KC is a much stronger team and should have no issues here (but I will buy the half point just in case). The only no bet this week is Pittsburgh. The numbers show Cinci, but without Dalton they are misleading so we sit out.

We will increase the betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $580 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON	0	3.0	3	61.0%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA	5.5	-3.5	-9.0	59.1%
KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON	3.5	6.0	2.5	56.1%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	3	-7.1	-10.1	42.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Houston -6.5
Pick 2: Minnesota +3
Pick 3: Kansas City -7
Pick 4: Seattle +7

Betting on week 17 is a dangerous endeavor. This year things are quite different so we'll change things for this week. We're betting! We'll try to be as smart as we can and also lower the percentage of bankroll.

This week we have Houston coming back with Hoyer to try to look good (if they can) before the playoffs. Green Bay is looking ever so terrible, the Vikings coach assured that the starters will play and Peterson will run for the rushing crown. That bet will go at the last minute, the spread might move half a point. The Chiefs will murder their divison rivals at home. Finally, Seattle will prove they will be a tough team to beat in the playoffs and although Arizona is playing amazingly, the Seahawks have more to prove on this game. I also like the Redskins, but they are likely to sit the starters. Other games with large margins are off the table most likely because there isn't much for them to play for.

We will lower the betting to 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $250 per game.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-6.5	-12.3	-5.8	62.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY	-3	3.0	6.0	57.7%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-8.9	-1.9	57.2%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	-7	-3.8	3.2	56.4%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-3	4.3	7.3	55.9%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-10.5	-13.3	-2.8	54.9%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO	3	1.6	-1.4	54.8%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	-7.5	-14.1	-6.6	50.0%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	4	9.3	5.3	50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	10	11.0	1.0	50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	-1	0.4	1.4	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA	-4	-0.9	3.1	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-9	-9.8	-0.8	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-3	-1.5	1.5	49.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	10	6.8	-3.2	NA
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	NA	-8.8	NA	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.