2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Wild Card Playoffs

Pick 1: Green Bay 0 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Minnesota +5.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick

The playoffs are here! I'm excited to see great games and my teams win. This week the model is picking Packers, Vikings and Chiefs. Green Bay makes intuitive sense because who would've known that Washington would have made the playoffs. Green Bay has the playoffs experience and their receivers will finally get open. Minnesota is a dangerous pick because the Super Bowl losers are coming back strong. The numbers are the numbers and Seattle hasn't shown consistency while this young Minnesota team is eager for a win. Houston's D is strong, but KC is a much stronger team and should have no issues here (but I will buy the half point just in case). The only no bet this week is Pittsburgh. The numbers show Cinci, but without Dalton they are misleading so we sit out.

We will increase the betting to 35% of bankroll split evenly across the 3 picks to give us a bet of $580 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ WASHINGTON 0 3.0 3 61.0%
SEATTLE @ MINNESOTA 5.5 -3.5 -9.0 59.1%
KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON 3.5 6.0 2.5 56.1%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI 3 -7.1 -10.1 42.1%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Oh what the heck, I'll post all my picks during the postseason, there are so few games each week. Unfortunately, our models only agree on one pick, Jaime: KC.

> Chiefs (-3.5)
> STEELERS (+3)
> Seahawks (-5)
> REDSKINS (+1)

Best of luck, everyone!

RealLine said...

Only one pick for us this week as the lines seem pretty good.

SEA (-5.0)

Proost!

NBAComputerMan said...

Going for our 4th straight... Bengals +2.5 follow me on Twitter @NBA_Computerman

Jaime Brugueras said...

Sweet!