2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Houston -6.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Minnesota +3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Kansas City -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Seattle +7 correct NFL point spread pick

Betting on week 17 is a dangerous endeavor. This year things are quite different so we'll change things for this week. We're betting! We'll try to be as smart as we can and also lower the percentage of bankroll.

This week we have Houston coming back with Hoyer to try to look good (if they can) before the playoffs. Green Bay is looking ever so terrible, the Vikings coach assured that the starters will play and Peterson will run for the rushing crown. That bet will go at the last minute, the spread might move half a point. The Chiefs will murder their divison rivals at home. Finally, Seattle will prove they will be a tough team to beat in the playoffs and although Arizona is playing amazingly, the Seahawks have more to prove on this game. I also like the Redskins, but they are likely to sit the starters. Other games with large margins are off the table most likely because there isn't much for them to play for.

We will lower the betting to 20% of bankroll split evenly across the 4 picks to give us a bet of $250 per game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON -6.5 -12.3 -5.8 62.0%
MINNESOTA @ GREEN BAY -3 3.0 6.0 57.7%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY -7 -8.9 -1.9 57.2%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA -7 -3.8 3.2 56.4%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS -3 4.3 7.3 55.9%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA -10.5 -13.3 -2.8 54.9%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO 3 1.6 -1.4 54.8%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI -7.5 -14.1 -6.6 50.0%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO 4 9.3 5.3 50.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI 10 11.0 1.0 50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO -1 0.4 1.4 50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA -4 -0.9 3.1 50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER -9 -9.8 -0.8 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS -3 -1.5 1.5 49.9%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND 10 6.8 -3.2 NA
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS NA -8.8 NA NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

5 comments:

NBAComputerMan said...

Follow me @NBA_Computerman on Twitter... 2-0 for you last week in the NFL. Killing it in the NBA as well..

This week:
Seattle +7

RealLine said...

Week 17 is definitely a tricky week to make picks in. You have to play motivation over pure numbers. When number and motivation match up it's worth a pick. This week we only have one normal pick and one conditional pick:

MIN (+3.0)
SEA (+6.5) (if CAR wins in the early game)

Proost!

RealLine said...

Apparently we need to figure out how to read a schedule as CAR doesn't play in the early game :) SEA (+6.5) is on regardless.

fiftytwopointfour said...

Well done, Jaime and RealLine! Very nice week for you both. Keep the momentum going for the playoffs!)

(I see that I completely forgot to post here, missing out on a week that my picks would have gone 3-1. They were published to my blog at least.)

RealLine said...

Congrats to you too 52.4 on beating the Vegas line on both spreads and totals for the season. That's hard for anyone to do picking every single game.

Best of luck all in the playoffs!