2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 17

Pick 1: Detroit +7.5
Pick 2: San Diego -1
Pick 3: Carolina +3
I'm not sure how I'm still above 50%. It's been 3 losing weeks in a row and 4 of the last 5. It wasn't until week 10 perfect picks that I haven't seen profits. The disappointment is unbearing. Need to snap this streak big time.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $650 per game for this week.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-7.5	-1.2	6.3	61.7%
SAN DIEGO @ KANSAS CITY	1	4.5	3.5	59.6%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-3	7.3	10.3	58.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	6.7	10.2	55.2%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE	7	19.1	12.1	54.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ TAMPA BAY	4	7.2	3.2	53.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-2.5	6.0	8.5	52.9%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	4	2.9	-1.1	52.1%
OAKLAND @ DENVER	-14	-18.6	-4.6	51.8%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-12	-15.5	-3.5	50.8%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6.5	-3.5	3.0	50.0%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA	-6	-6.2	-0.2	50.0%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-5	-11.7	-6.7	50.0%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE	-13.5	-13.0	0.5	49.7%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-6	-9.9	-3.9	49.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-9.5	-16.8	-7.3	46.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 16

Pick 1: San Diego +1
Pick 2: Indianapolis +3
Pick 3: Arizona +9
Pick 4: Denver -3
Another miserable week for this picks as the picks went again 1-2. Should have not bet against Denver. I'm adjusting a few parameters this week based on some back testing I did over the week. Excuse me for not posting the picks before Thursday. I'm still confident the system works, so hoping that from now on and especially during the playoffs, we come out winning big to recover and finish the year in good shape.

This week we have 4 premium picks and we are keeping the bankroll at 25%. This gives us a bet of $560 per game for this week. I also like and stats back me up on KC, CHI, NE and CLE.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ SAN FRANCISCO	-1	3.9	4.9	66.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DALLAS	-3	3.7	6.7	59.1%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	9	3.1	-5.9	57.5%
DENVER @ CINCINNATI	3	6.4	3.4	57.1%
ATLANTA @ NEW ORLEANS	-6.5	-9.4	-2.9	56.3%
KANSAS CITY @ PITTSBURGH	-3	11.3	14.3	55.8%
BALTIMORE @ HOUSTON	6	1.9	-4.1	54.4%
MINNESOTA @ MIAMI	-6.5	-6.7	-0.2	50.0%
DETROIT @ CHICAGO	9.5	5.6	-3.9	50.0%
CLEVELAND @ CAROLINA	-4	0.4	4.4	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	8	8.2	0.2	50.0%
NY GIANTS @ ST LOUIS	-6.5	-4.8	1.7	49.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	10.5	25.3	14.8	48.2%
GREEN BAY @ TAMPA BAY	12	10.0	-2.0	47.5%
BUFFALO @ OAKLAND	6.5	6.9	0.4	47.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 15

Pick 1: Washington +7
Pick 2: San Diego +4.5
Pick 3: New England -7.5

Last week our picks went 1-2. Got lucky that Minnesota scored a touchdown in overtime and pushed. Chicago was a bad bet, especially now that Marshall is out. Seattle was a good bet and Cincinnati bombed.

This week we have 3 premium picks and we are going to up the bankroll to 25%. Being at pretty much break-even level and the season approaching its end, I want to end with a bang (or a boom). This gives us a bet of $815 per game for this week. Honorable mentions that the computer-based picked were Dallas although I've already made that mistake during Thanksgiving so it sounds like a good one to shy away. Carolina and Cincinnati but both game have new QBs. Detroit looks tempting as well. That's it for now. Thank you everyone for all the constructive comments, I've been learning a lot from you guys. Thanks and good luck to everyone.

P

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-7	-1.5	5.5	62.3%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	4.5	-1.0	-5.5	59.5%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-7.5	-15.1	-7.6	59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	-8	-8.6	-0.6	56.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO	3	0.8	-2.2	54.5%
PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA	2.5	-1.8	-4.3	54.4%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-10	-15.9	-5.9	54.1%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	-9.8	-2.8	54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA	-3.5	-5.5	-2.0	52.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE	-10	-10.5	0.5	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ CLEVELAND	-1	6.0	7.0	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ BALTIMORE	-14	-19.0	-5.0	49.7%
GREEN BAY @ BUFFALO	6	-3.7	-9.7	48.5%
ARIZONA @ ST LOUIS	-4.5	4.5	9.0	48.2%
NY JETS @ TENNESSEE	2	1.6	-0.4	47.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 14

Pick 1: Cincinnati -3.5
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: Chicago +3.5
Pick 4: Minnesota -6 PUSH

Last week our picks went 3-2. The San Diego pick and win was a classic Vegas moment. Down by 9 and everything went perfectly for them to get the win. On the other hand, New England's missed field goal was also classic but didn't go in our favor. I wasn't even sure they would go for the field goal, they did and saw the opportunity, but then the miss changed everything. Dallas was a bad pick in retrospect, but Denver was almost an obvious pick. Now that the RB can pick up when Payton doesn't deliver gives me more confidence in the Broncos. I need the models to better predict the blowouts. This week was the Rams beating the Raiders by 52 points and the Colts cruising at home against the Redskins.

This week we have 4 premium picks starting with the Thursday night game at Soldier Field and the rest. Honorary mentions for picks that didn't make the premium cut were the two big underdogs. Atlanta's playing the red hot Packers at Lambeau on Monday night. That's a hard pick to make. Carolina is one of the worst teams in my opinion and I've lost enough bets on them this year so I'm out of that one too. This week we keep the bankroll to use 20% split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of about $520 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	-3.5	-10.1	-6.6	61.0%
SEATTLE @ PHILADEPHIA	-1	7.5	8.5	60.1%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO	3.5	0.1	-3.4	58.6%
NY JETS @ MINNESOTA	-6	-7	-1	58.3%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY	-12.5	-8.8	3.7	56.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-10	-6.8	3.2	55.3%
BUFFALO @ DENVER	-10	-15.4	-5.4	54.1%
TAMPA BAY @ DETROIT	-10	-11.1	-1.1	54.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CLEVELAND	4.5	12.2	7.7	53.9%
NEW ENGLAND @ SAN DIEGO	4	6.5	2.5	52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	-3	-4.3	-1.3	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ ARIZONA	-1.5	-0.3	1.2	50.0%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON	3	-2.9	-5.9	49.9%
NY GIANTS @ TENNESSEE	1.5	-0.1	-1.6	49.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ OAKLAND	9	6.9	-2.1	48.5%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	5.9	0.4	48.2%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.