NFL Point Spread Picks - Playoffs

Pick 1: San Francisco -3 PUSH
Pick 2: San Diego +7
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5
Pick 4: Kansas City +2.5
We've had a good run this year. 54% for the year and 57% the last 8 weeks. For the past 6 years I've been giving you every week free picks generated by an algorithm I created while studying a Ph.D. in Mathematics. I've since improved the formula much with the knowledge attained through the years. I've been studying NFL point spreads for the past 7 years and posting my picks here for the past 5 years, at no cost. Last year I decided to generate a bit of money to pay for the minor expenses in time and resources that this takes.

Get ALL 2013 NFL playoff picks for $79 100% Guarantee - If all playoff picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back

Why am I charging for picks now?
For a few reasons, here they are in no specific order:

• I like pressure. If I don't perform (under 50% ATS), I lose you don't. 
• They are worth every penny, especially the playoff picks.
• Every year my wife tells me to.

What do you get?
For $50 you will receive all the weekly picks throughout the playoffs. It's not $79 a week, it's $79 for all Wildcard, Divisional, Conference, and Super Bowl games.

Who am I?
Jaime Brugueras, Ph.D. in Statistics from the University of Illinois. I'm the Analytics head at a fast growing marketing analytics company. I've been posting my picks since 2006, putting myself out there like no other NFL handicapper. Now after a 54% 2012 season you've witnessed, 56% through 5 years, and a 62% ATS record during the playoffs, I feel confident that this will generate profits for people who seriously bet on NFL games.

What are you waiting for? Get your picks
You have nothing to lose. If you don't win, neither do I.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	3	7.3	4.3	63.0%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI	-7	-4.9	2.1	59.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-5.1	-2.6	58.4%
KANSAS CITY @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2.5	3.5	6.0	56.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Unofficial Spread Picks for Week 17

I have never placed bets on the last week of the season. Similar to the off season, there are teams that have already qualified and might sit their QBs or teams that are so at the bottom that it might even be beneficial for them to stay there. Since I believe some players and coaches might not be giving their 100% effort, I've always stayed away from this week. When I started this blog, I wouldn't even run the numbers but I quickly learned that some of you still like to see them. So here are the automated point spread picks from NFLpickles:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CLEVELAND @ PITTSBURGH	-7	-6.1	0.9	63.0%
NY JETS @ MIAMI	-7	-6.5	0.5	63.0%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	-6.5	-7.2	-0.7	60.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	3	6.3	3.3	55.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-11	-15.8	-4.8	54.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND	-9.5	-10.9	-1.4	53.1%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	-10	-12.0	-2.0	53.1%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	-6.5	-9.4	-2.9	51.0%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-4	-1.9	2.1	50.0%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	-3.5	-2.2	1.3	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-13	-13.3	-0.3	50.0%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	7	8.6	1.6	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-9.5	-0.3	9.2	49.8%
DENVER @ OAKLAND	13	13.3	0.3	48.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS	7.5	-6.0	-13.5	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16 - 2013

Pick 1: St Louis -5
Pick 2: Indianapolis +7
Pick 3: New England +2.5
Pick 4: San Francisco -13

We continue our struggles this year with last week going again 1-2 (by merely one point away from going 2-1). Many of you have asked me to do a broader study on trends regarding homedogs, division and other things that we should probably at least be aware of. I promise I will do so at least in the off-season if not before. Now that I've just started my vacation, I might grab a night to query my 15 year database and see what comes out. I can't promise anything soon as I'm expecting a new member of the family some time soon and don't know how all that will pan out. This will be the last week of regular season picks and then we'll go strong on the playoffs and will hopefully continue my average of 55% during playoffs.
For the second week in a row, we use 20% of bankroll for the 4 picks above. That's $455 per pick. See table below for automated predictions of NFL games week 16 against the spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
TAMPA BAY @ ST LOUIS	-5	-7.4	-2.4	62.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-4.8	2.2	61.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ BALTIMORE	-2.5	1.1	3.6	58.1%
ATLANTA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-13	-18.2	-5.2	57.5%
NY GIANTS @ DETROIT	-9	-7.8	1.2	54.8%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON	3	1.9	-1.1	53.7%
ARIZONA @ SEATTLE	-10.5	-12.9	-2.4	53.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	-3.5	-6.4	-2.9	51.9%
DENVER @ HOUSTON	10.5	14.8	4.3	51.9%
MINNESOTA @ CINCINNATI	-7.5	-9.0	-1.5	51.0%
CHICAGO @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	-0.6	2.4	50.3%
TENNESSEE @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	6.7	1.2	50.0%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO	3	2.8	-0.2	49.9%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS	-2	-6.5	-4.5	49.3%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-10	-9.4	0.6	48.1%
PITTSBURGH @ GREEN BAY	0	-6.4	-6.4	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +6
Pick 2: Denver -10.5
Pick 3: Carolina -11

And back to negative ROI... For this week, NFL predictions below, hoping that Cutler doesn't play for the Bears, if he does this pick might be removed (UPDATE: Bears pick has been removed). Two more weeks of regular season and then we start the playoffs. We're upping our bankroll for the reason of the season to 20% per week. For week 15 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $640 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 15 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ DETROIT	-6	-0.9	5.1	61.9%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-10.5	-13.9	-3.4	58.5%
NY JETS @ CAROLINA	-11	-18.5	-7.5	58.5%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH	3	6.8	3.8	55.1%
SAN FRANCISCO @ TAMPA BAY	6	10.5	4.5	55.1%
ARIZONA @ TENNESSEE	3	0.0	-3.0	53.7%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI	3	1.4	-1.6	53.7%
BUFFALO @ JACKSONVILLE	1.5	3.3	1.8	53.3%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS	-6.5	-8.7	-2.2	51.0%
WASHINGTON @ ATLANTA	-6.5	-7.2	-0.7	50.0%
SEATTLE @ NY GIANTS	7	11.8	4.8	50.0%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	5	5.2	0.2	49.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ ST LOUIS	6	8.3	2.3	49.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ MINNESOTA	6	-1.1	-7.1	48.1%
CHICAGO @ CLEVELAND	-1.5	1.9	3.4	NA
GREEN BAY @ DALLAS	NA	-1.8		NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14 - 2013

Pick 1: Carolina +4
Pick 2: Oakland +2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -3

A great rebound last week to put us finally on positive ROI! First week this year without a pick with over 60% confidence. In other words, all picks are highlighted in yellow. Also this week has all picks for road teams. We're going with the 3 picks listed above without much other further analysis. I did check injury reports, but sometimes they are not updated on Tuesday nights. So please let me know if you see something regarding injuries that you think I should be aware.

I was going to up the percentage to 20 this week, but given that none of the picks are over 60% I'll stick to 18 until we get to the playoffs. For week 14 of the NFL, we have a total of 3 predictions for a total of $615 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 14 of 2013. Two weeks of picks left before the playoffs since we're on vacation that week :)

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS	-4	2.0	6.0	58.2%
OAKLAND @ NY JETS	-2.5	2.1	4.6	58.2%
KANSAS CITY @ WASHINGTON	3	7.8	4.8	58.1%
CLEVELAND @ NEW ENGLAND	-13	-17.7	-4.7	57.5%
DETROIT @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	0.1	3.1	56.2%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	3	8.3	5.3	52.1%
TENNESSEE @ DENVER	-13	-14.1	-1.1	52.1%
NY GIANTS @ SAN DIEGO	-3.5	-5.1	-1.6	51.9%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	-6	-3.2	2.8	51.0%
MINNESOTA @ BALTIMORE	-7	-6.2	0.8	50.5%
MIAMI @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	3.3	6.8	50.2%
BUFFALO @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-3.2	-0.2	49.9%
SEATTLE @ SAN FRANCISCO	-2.5	-6.7	-4.2	49.0%
DALLAS @ CHICAGO	2	2.2	0.2	48.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ CINCINNATI	-6	-2.2	3.8	48.4%
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY	NA	-8.6	NA	NA

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.