NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9 - 2013

Pick 1: San Diego -1
Pick 2: Green Bay -11
Pick 3: Dallas -11
Pick 4: Kansas City -3

Brutal week last one. Picks are down to 50% and ROI is in negative. There's still a long way to go and I've been in worst places. Continue to stay disciplined and focused. Research more on injuries, trends, trades, playbook. Request more help from readers as there are weeks that I have little time to deep dive into each game, i.e. I simply press a button (or two) and run the picks against the latest data.

We continue to use 18% of bankroll. For week 9 of the NFL, we have a total of 4 predictions for a total of $430 per game. Here are the NFL picks against the spread for week 9 of 2013.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ WASHINGTON	1	4.4	3.4	60.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-11	-14.9	-3.9	59.5%
MINNESOTA @ DALLAS	-11	-16.3	-5.3	58.5%
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO	3	5.9	2.9	58.3%
TENNESSEE @ ST LOUIS	3	7.0	4.0	56.3%
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-12.3	-5.3	52.2%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA	-7.5	-12.6	-5.1	52.2%
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE	-17	-26.4	-9.4	51.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ OAKLAND	-2.5	1.1	3.6	50.7%
CINCINNATI @ MIAMI	3	5.6	2.6	50.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	3	7.9	4.9	50.0%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND	3	-4.9	-7.9	49.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ NY JETS	6.5	7.0	0.5	48.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 8 - 2013

Pick 1: Denver -13
Pick 2: Atlanta +2.5
Pick 3: Kansas City -7

Last week could have gone better had I checked the injury report. Philadephia should not have been a pick given Vick was out. I'm still banging my head for not seeing that. It's easy to say in retrospect but if we stick to the original rules, that game should have not been a pick regardless of the outcome. In either case, we came out evenly so no big harm done. The next few weeks we need to break away from breaking even and start accumulating to our bankroll.

Few things I like about this week's picks. 1) I like Denver and believe they will bounce back big at home from a loss, 2) KC can score big at home and cover 7. After the fact observations, entertaining nevertheless.

We up the bankroll a bit to use 18% of bankroll for this week. For Week 8 we have a total of 3 NFL game picks so we bet evenly across all games, $600 per game. Here is the full computerized predictions for week 8 of the NFL against the spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
WASHINGTON @ DENVER	-13	-19.3	-6.3	60.5%
ATLANTA @ ARIZONA	-2.5	3.3	5.8	59.1%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-14.3	-7.3	58.6%
SAN FRANCISCO - JACKSONVILLE	17	13.0	-4.0	58.4%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	6	3.0	-3.0	53.8%
BUFFALO @ NEW ORLEANS	-12	-10.3	1.7	53.3%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-7	-4.6	2.4	53.2%
DALLAS @ DETROIT	-3	-0.5	2.5	50.7%
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	11.5	8.2	-3.3	50.6%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-6	-1.5	4.5	50.3%
PITTSBURGH @ OAKLAND	3	5.2	2.2	49.9%
NY JETS @ CINCINNATI	-6.5	-10.2	-3.7	48.9%
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	10	8.3	-1.7	46.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 7 - 2013

Pick 1: Baltimore +1.5
Pick 2: Carolina -6.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2.5
Pick 4: Seattle -5.5

Very little time to talk this week. t-10 minutes til the kickoff of Thursday's game. Great week last week!

We continue by betting 15% of bankroll. For Week 7 we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $375 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-1.5	7.6	9.1	60.7%
ST LOUIS @ CAROLINA	-6.5	-13.5	-7	60.3%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-4.8	-2.3	59.6%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	5.5	8	2.5	59.0%
CHICAGO @ WASHINGTON	-1	4.2	5.2	54.0%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-7	-7.2	-0.2	53.1%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI	-8	-8.4	-0.4	53.1%
CINCINNATI @ DETROIT	-3	0.1	3.1	56.9%
SAN FRANCISCO @ TENNESSEE	4.5	16.2	11.7	53.2%
NEW ENGLAND @ NY JETS	4	9.8	5.8	52.1%
CLEVELAND @ GREEN BAY	-10	-11.6	-1.6	52.1%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE	8	12.2	4.2	52.0%
MINNESOTA @ NY GIANTS	-3.5	7.2	10.7	51.0%
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY	-6	-7.8	-1.8	50.0%
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS	7	8.0	1.0	49.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 6 - 2013

Pick 1: New Orleans +1.5
Pick 2: Buffalo +7.5
Pick 3: Dallas -6.5
Pick 4: St Louis +7.5

Ouch, didn't like that first week. That's cool, we'll rebound. The central limit theorem will get us out of this one. I'm feeling better about my picks this week. Definitely more games this week with high probability of success.

This week there's a couple of interesting games. Denver a 27.5 favorite! The worst and best teams in the league battle it out. It can definitely happen, but I'm out on this one. Buffalo a home dog looks promising. I think the spread is underestimating New Orleans, Dallas, and Indi but we'll see.

We continue by betting 15% of bankroll (we'll increase to 18% midseason and 20% for the playoffs). For this week we have a total of 4 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $355 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ORLEANS @ NEW ENGLAND	-1.5	5.4	6.9	63.0%
CINCINNATI @ BUFFALO	7.5	-1.5	-9.0	60.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-6.5	-13	-7.5	58.9%
ST LOUIS @ HOUSTON	-7.5	-1	6.5	58.6%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-9	-12.3	-3.3	54.5%
NY GIANTS @ CHICAGO	-8	-13	-5.0	53.5%
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE	-13.5	-11.2	2.3	51.7%
CAROLINA @ MINNESOTA	-2.5	2.5	5.0	51.6%
PHILADELPHIA @ TAMPA BAY	1.5	4	2.5	50.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ SAN DIEGO	2	8	6.0	50.5%
GREEN BAY @ BALTIMORE	3	6	3.0	50.0%
DETROIT @ CLEVELAND	3	-6	-9.0	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ DENVER	-27.8	-23.8	4.0	49.1%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-12	-16.8	-4.8	49.1%
PITTSBURGH @ NY JETS	-2.5	-6	-3.5	48.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

NFL Point Spread Picks Week 5 - First Official Picks of the Season

Pick 1: Atlanta -9.5
Pick 2: New England 0
Pick 3: Dallas +9

The first official week of NFLpickles point spread picks starts today. I'm very excited for the season and hope that it's another winning season for us all. First a reminder that the most important feature to optimize revenue is personal discipline. No jumping on bets, staying on course with bankroll strategy, and never put all your eggs in one basket or week. Then we remove all our emotions and only judge by what the outcome say. Sometimes they won't make sense and that's ok. Always check for major injuries in each team and remove any bets/games that have these injuries. Remember that this is a law of large numbers play and not a get rich quick scheme. Finally, if you forgot why I started doing this, just read my first post this season.

As for my thoughts on the 3 picks of the weeks are that Atlanta looked well rounded on offense in the last game and I think they will be able to dismantle the Jets. I like New England over Cincinnati and Brady continue to polishing the rookies. Finally, Dallas bet instead of Denver. Denver is being doing well against the spread but as a home underdog where the prediction is not that far off is coming with high confidence, so I have to stick with it. Dallas will keep it a close game and who knows if they might get greedy and try to take it from the Broncos.

We start the season by betting 15% of bankroll. To make it easy for everyone to track, I'm going to use an bankroll of 10,000 simply to be able to track ROI as I've done in previous seasons. For this week we have a total of 3 picks so we bet evenly across all games, $500 per game. Good luck everyone and the only best ROI for the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ ATLANTA	-9.5	-12.5	-3.0	60.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ CINCINNATI	0	5.3	5.3	59.0%
DENVER @ DALLAS	9	5	-4	58.3%
JACKSONVILLE @ ST LOUIS	-12	-17.9	-5.9	54.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS	-2.5	-2.3	0.2	52.5%
BALTIMORE @ MIAMI	-3	2	5.0	51.5%
HOUSTON @ SAN FRANCISCO	-7	-10.5	-3.5	51.3%
CAROLINA @ ARIZONA	2	3.1	1.1	50.3%
NEW ORLEANS @ CHICAGO	0	-0.7	-0.7	50.0%
BUFFALO @ CLEVELAND	-4	-4.5	-.5	50.0%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY	-7	-8.8	-1.8	49.9%
SEATTLE @ INDIANAPOLIS	3	2.5	-0.5	49.8%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	5	6.9	1.9	49.3%
KANSAS CITY @ TENNESSEE	3	-5.5	-8.5	49.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.