2010 Super Bowl Pick

Pick 1: Green Bay -2.5

Last week, after I posted my picks, a very smart comment came to my attention. "Hey Jaime, are you able to remove any GB games that Rodgers didn't play the full game in from your model?" When I did, the spread outcome changed completely, it had the Packers covering but too close to the spread to make it a pick.

This week, I have removed this year's games where either Rodgers or Roethlisberger didn't play. I have also removed the home field advantage factor since they will be playing in Dallas. Below you will see, that the prediction is that Green Bay will win by 7.

Aside from the model, what you got here are the two top defenses in the NFL (although some say GB is a bit lower). In the offense they are also both top 3 teams, with GB taking the #2 spot and PIT the #3. By looking at these numbers one could conclude that since PIT has a better defense and GB a slightly better offense, PIT should be favorite. The market does not think so. By having GB favorite at 2.5, there is more to it. I'm not sure what it is. It is not experience since the Steelers have been here and won before. Could it be that it is Rodgers' (considered the best QB in the NFL by some) time to shine? Why do you think the majority of people think GB will win? Comment below...

As we mentioned last week, we were using 25% of bankroll for the rest of the year, so we still have $250 for the Super Bowl. Below is the table the 2010 NFL Super Bowl picks against the point spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY - PITTSBURGH	2.5	6.8	4.3	61.6%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 Conference Playoffs Picks

Pick 1: Jets +3.5
Pick 2: Bears +3.5

Another good playoff week last week! My second half stats are off the charts. This week, NFLpickles is going with the two underdogs. I don't have much else to say other than the Bears pick is not emotional. But I'm glad it came out this way so I can double cheer for them.

Using 25% of bankroll for the rest of the year, gives us a $250 bet per game (including the Super Bowl). Good luck and go Bears! Below is the table of all 2010 NFL Conference picks against the point spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH	-3.5	2.9	6.4	62.5%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO	3.5	-1	-4.5	60.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 Divisional Playoff Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3
Pick 2: Chicago -10
Pick 3: Green Bay +2.5

Last week was awesome, not only the games but the predictions. NFLpickles pick went 4-0 and an official 2-0. This week my favorite bet is Baltimore. I think they will straight up. Green Bay is underrated. I ran the model and eliminated the data that Aaron wasn't playing. I have them also winning the game. The spread was initially at 2, now at 2.5, might consider waiting 'till 3 or buying the half point. Chicago's bet I am not so sure about. Maybe it's the feelings one gets by living in the city. Everyone is very skeptical, but I'm sticking to stats here and the prediction is that they will blowout Seattle, we'll see.

Using 25% of bankroll, gives us a $200 bet per game. Good luck and go Bears! Below is the table of all 2010 NFL Divisional picks against the point spread.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	-3	3	6	63.5%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO	-10	-13.4	-3.4	62.0%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA	-2.5	1.0	3.0	60.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-8.5	-9.6	-1.1	50.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 Wildcard Playoffs Picks

Pick 1: NY Jets +2.5
Pick 2: Baltimore -3

The only thing that worries me about the first point spread pick is Peyton Manning and his experience in the playoffs. I do think the Jets are the better team and should win the game. Baltimore is the only one that will be even close to beating the Pats. They make it through easily. Green Bay and Philadelphia game is too close too call and Seattle is not a trustworthy pick since Whitehurst took charge.

This week we crank it up again to 25% of bankroll splitting it halfway for each game for 250 per game. We should have enough to get us through a successful playoff and end of the season.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-2.5	1.5	4.0	61.4%
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY	3	6.9	3.9	60.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE	10.5	9	-1.5	57.8%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	1.4	3.9	56.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Playoff Bracket Predictions

Your office is playing the NFL playoff brackets pool and you want to see computer generated picks. You've done the picks before, but your guts always choose the same teams everyone chooses. The only one with radically different picks wins and takes home the prize. This year you've decided to start doing some research and see what computer generated picks have to say about this year's playoffs.

There are many methodologies out there on how to pick game winners. Although I pick against the spread, I still make predictions about the score at the end of the game. Straight up, these predictions have been 61% correct throughout the season and at 67% in the second half (top 10 in thepredictiontracker.com).

Below is a chart of what the NFLpickles model predicts. Green Bay coming out of the NFC?! I don't believe it either, but anything can happen. Point spread predictions for the Wildcard coming soon after this. Enjoy!

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 17

No picks this week. Stay tuned for playoff picks...

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	0	-5.8	-5.8	60.0%
CAROLINA @ ATLANTA	-14.5	-17.7	-3.2	57.9%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY	-4.5	-7.4	-2.9	57.7%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE	4	12.2	8.2	56.5%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-6.5	-5.0	1.5	53.5%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS	-8.5	-6.5	2.0	53.5%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	4	21.5	17.5	53.3%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND	-4	-14.2	-10.2	52.7%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE	-9.5	-10.4	-0.9	52.6%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT	-3.5	-3.0	0.5	51.4%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON	4.5	6.5	2.0	50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	6	7.2	1.2	50.0%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6	-10.4	-4.4	50.0%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA	1	-4.8	-5.8	50.0%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY	-10.5	0.3	10.8	49.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON	-4	-5	-1	49.1%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.