2010 Conference Playoffs Picks

Pick 1: Jets +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Bears +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Another good playoff week last week! My second half stats are off the charts. This week, NFLpickles is going with the two underdogs. I don't have much else to say other than the Bears pick is not emotional. But I'm glad it came out this way so I can double cheer for them.

Using 25% of bankroll for the rest of the year, gives us a $250 bet per game (including the Super Bowl). Good luck and go Bears! Below is the table of all 2010 NFL Conference picks against the point spread.





























GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY JETS @ PITTSBURGH-3.52.96.462.5%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO3.5-1-4.560.8%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

Probable said...

My model thought both these lines were pretty accurate. Not only that, but it was showing unusually large distributions for the outcomes. So no picks for me this week, unofficial or otherwise (I'm now 8-3 unofficial, 21-13-1 official). My advice is to take the week off and enjoy the games. But good luck with your picks!

Jaime said...

Playing against the odds. Just took a poll that 57,000 had taken asking who would end up playing in the Super Bowl. I was one of the 12% that answered Bears vs Jets. 46% said Steelers vs Packers, 25% Jets vs Packers, and 17% Bears vs Steelers. I guess I'm playing with fire this week.

Mike d. said...

Hey Jaime, are you able to remove any GB games that Rodgers didn't play the full game in from your model to see what the outcome was?

Jaime said...

Damn it Mike, why did you have to come up with such a smart comment? When I read it I was like holy shit he's right, plus I wonder how much the prediction will change.

So I went ahead and removed Green Bay's week 14 and 15 games and ran the predictions again.

The result: Green Bay by 3.6, a no bet. If anyone reads this, and it's not too late, it is for me, I already placed my bets, stay away from the Bears game it's too close to call. Probable, you were right.

Mike d., thanks a lot, now my pick has turned into a pure emotional one. Go Bears!

Mike d. said...

Well, things did not work out so great with this weeks picks. Although, the model did seem to work for the GB/CHI game when you removed the games Rodgers didn't play.

I forgot to ask, but did you happen to do the same for PIT and the first 4 games of the season that Roethlisberger didn't play? I wonder if that changes the model outcome too?

Jaime said...

It probably does, no I didn't do that for PIT.