2010 Wildcard Playoffs Picks
Pick 1: NY Jets +2.5 
Pick 2: Baltimore -3
The only thing that worries me about the first point spread pick is Peyton Manning and his experience in the playoffs. I do think the Jets are the better team and should win the game. Baltimore is the only one that will be even close to beating the Pats. They make it through easily. Green Bay and Philadelphia game is too close too call and Seattle is not a trustworthy pick since Whitehurst took charge.
This week we crank it up again to 25% of bankroll splitting it halfway for each game for 250 per game. We should have enough to get us through a successful playoff and end of the season.
How to read the table:
Pick 2: Baltimore -3
The only thing that worries me about the first point spread pick is Peyton Manning and his experience in the playoffs. I do think the Jets are the better team and should win the game. Baltimore is the only one that will be even close to beating the Pats. They make it through easily. Green Bay and Philadelphia game is too close too call and Seattle is not a trustworthy pick since Whitehurst took charge.
This week we crank it up again to 25% of bankroll splitting it halfway for each game for 250 per game. We should have enough to get us through a successful playoff and end of the season.
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS | -2.5 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 61.4% |
| BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY | 3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 60.5% |
| NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE | 10.5 | 9 | -1.5 | 57.8% |
| GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA | -2.5 | 1.4 | 3.9 | 56.4% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.
Comments
Also, how have you only lost 30$ with a 20-20 record? Standard juice is 9-10% per bet...
Good observation about the money. The reason is simple, my record has been much better in the second half of the season than the first half. When we started placing bets, we were using only 18% of bankroll to let the data sink in. By the end of the season, we were using at most 25% in a week.
Anyways, good luck. =)
Finally, back in green with the bankroll.