2010 Wildcard Playoffs Picks

Pick 1: NY Jets +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Baltimore -3 correct NFL point spread pick

The only thing that worries me about the first point spread pick is Peyton Manning and his experience in the playoffs. I do think the Jets are the better team and should win the game. Baltimore is the only one that will be even close to beating the Pats. They make it through easily. Green Bay and Philadelphia game is too close too call and Seattle is not a trustworthy pick since Whitehurst took charge.

This week we crank it up again to 25% of bankroll splitting it halfway for each game for 250 per game. We should have enough to get us through a successful playoff and end of the season.











































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS-2.51.54.061.4%
BALTIMORE @ KANSAS CITY36.93.960.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ SEATTLE10.59-1.557.8%
GREEN BAY @ PHILADELPHIA-2.51.43.956.4%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

5 comments:

Bobby Brooks said...

I'm curious why you would go with NYJ +2.5 when you could wait a little longer and get them at +3?

Also, how have you only lost 30$ with a 20-20 record? Standard juice is 9-10% per bet...

Jaime said...

You probably don't have to wait since there are certain places where the NYJ spread is already at 3. I just wanted to get the picks out there.

Good observation about the money. The reason is simple, my record has been much better in the second half of the season than the first half. When we started placing bets, we were using only 18% of bankroll to let the data sink in. By the end of the season, we were using at most 25% in a week.

Bobby Brooks said...

Ok the money thing makes sense, but what's the rush to get a pick out if it's an underdog play? Bet tracking shows the majority of the bets on IND so you could wait all week to get the best value.

Anyways, good luck. =)

Probable said...

My model likes Packers +3 and Ravens -3 for unofficial picks. Unofficial picks have been 5-3 so far, just about the same rate as my real picks earlier in the season.

Jaime said...

Sweet playoff start. All picks were correctly predicted even the ones that weren't official picks. Only thing missed was to predict that Seattle would win the game, damn. :)
Finally, back in green with the bankroll.