2010 Super Bowl Pick

Pick 1: Green Bay -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week, after I posted my picks, a very smart comment came to my attention. "Hey Jaime, are you able to remove any GB games that Rodgers didn't play the full game in from your model?" When I did, the spread outcome changed completely, it had the Packers covering but too close to the spread to make it a pick.

This week, I have removed this year's games where either Rodgers or Roethlisberger didn't play. I have also removed the home field advantage factor since they will be playing in Dallas. Below you will see, that the prediction is that Green Bay will win by 7.

Aside from the model, what you got here are the two top defenses in the NFL (although some say GB is a bit lower). In the offense they are also both top 3 teams, with GB taking the #2 spot and PIT the #3. By looking at these numbers one could conclude that since PIT has a better defense and GB a slightly better offense, PIT should be favorite. The market does not think so. By having GB favorite at 2.5, there is more to it. I'm not sure what it is. It is not experience since the Steelers have been here and won before. Could it be that it is Rodgers' (considered the best QB in the NFL by some) time to shine? Why do you think the majority of people think GB will win? Comment below...

As we mentioned last week, we were using 25% of bankroll for the rest of the year, so we still have $250 for the Super Bowl. Below is the table the 2010 NFL Super Bowl picks against the point spread.






















GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY - PITTSBURGH2.56.84.361.6%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

Nick said...

Are you taking the 10% juice out of your wins?

Jaime said...

Yes. Sometimes it is more and sometimes it is less, depending on the value on various online sites (mainly Bodog and Sports.com).

For the SuperBowl it's 10%.

George said...

I believe this game will be decided at the line of scrimmage.
· Pitt’s O-line is a mess, and without adequate depth.
· The Jets lacked a dominant front four, requiring stunts to pressure the QB
· The GB D-line will be able apply enough pressure without too much blitzing.

· Moreover, GB’s O-line and the mobility of Rodgers, as seen last week. Will require Pitt to bring more and cover less.
· The Pitt secondary will be exploited, and 43 isn’t healthy enough to stop it.

Probable said...

My model thought the line on this one is too close to call. It has another very wide distribution, so no pick from me this week.

Official picks went 21-13-1 (61.8%), unofficial picks (as left in the comments here) went 8-3, for a combined 29-16-1 (64.4%).

Good luck with the Super Bowl pick, and here's to hoping there's no lock out next season.