2010 Divisional Playoff Picks

Pick 1: Baltimore +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Chicago -10 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay +2.5 correct NFL point spread pick

Last week was awesome, not only the games but the predictions. NFLpickles pick went 4-0 and an official 2-0. This week my favorite bet is Baltimore. I think they will straight up. Green Bay is underrated. I ran the model and eliminated the data that Aaron wasn't playing. I have them also winning the game. The spread was initially at 2, now at 2.5, might consider waiting 'till 3 or buying the half point. Chicago's bet I am not so sure about. Maybe it's the feelings one gets by living in the city. Everyone is very skeptical, but I'm sticking to stats here and the prediction is that they will blowout Seattle, we'll see.

Using 25% of bankroll, gives us a $200 bet per game. Good luck and go Bears! Below is the table of all 2010 NFL Divisional picks against the point spread.











































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH-33663.5%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO-10-13.4-3.462.0%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA-2.51.03.060.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND-8.5-9.6-1.150.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

3 comments:

Probable said...

Jaime, high five on last weekend. My unofficial picks also went 2-0, and are now 7-3, after going 21-13-1. I may have to reconsider when I stop making picks!

Anyway, this week, the only pick for me that reached the significance threshold was the Bears -10, so we're in agreement there.

Probable said...

I guess I should specify that I'm still making unofficial picks, despite the recent success.

mike said...

2/3 offical and 3/4 with the unoffical... haha makes up for the regular season... can't wait for you next week