Pick 2: St. Louis -3
Pick 3: Atlanta -3
What the hell is going on? This weekend I spent hours trying to see if I was doing a mistake reading in the data, in the analysis, and basically in every line of code, nothing. The model simply has sucked this year. As you can tell, I'm very frustrated and disappointed, but I'm keeping my cool.
This week I like the experienced Patriots over the Jets, is it Monday yet? Atlanta and Roddy White scoring touchdowns on Tampa Bay's strong D. Finally, at the top of the ATS Standings, the Rams beating down on a smiling Derek Anderson.
The last few weeks (except for the last which we usually don't bet) and the playoffs are historically my best weeks. Assuming this, then my probability of winning is higher. Therefore, according to the formula, the weekly risk increases a bit more. Now taking it at 25% giving each game this week a wager of $120. Good luck, it wouldn't hurt.
Other notable picks include: Chicago, Oakland, and Houston.
|NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND||-3||-10.0||-6.5||64.3%|
|ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA||3||6.3||3.8||61.7%|
|ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY||3||12.1||9.1||61.5%|
|CHICAGO @ DETROIT||3.5||13.4||9.9||58.5%|
|OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO||-13||-10||3||58.3%|
|HOUSTON @ PHILADEPHIA||-9||-3||6||55.4%|
|WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS||-7||-2||5||54.8%|
|CLEVELAND @ MIAMI||-4.5||-5.5||1.0||52.6%|
|JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE||-3||-6.1||-3.1||52.1%|
|PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE||-3||1||4||50.7%|
|BUFFALO @ MINNESOTA||-6.5||1.1||7.6||50.0%|
|DALLAS @ INDIANAPOLIS||-5.5||-3||-2.5||50.0%|
|DENVER @ KANSAS CITY||-9||-10||-1||49.7%|
|SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY||-10||-16||-6||49.2%|
|NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI||7||5.4||1.6||48.0%|
|CAROLINA @ SEATTLE||-6||-5||1||48.0%|
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.