2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: New England -3
Pick 2: St. Louis -3
Pick 3: Atlanta -3

What the hell is going on? This weekend I spent hours trying to see if I was doing a mistake reading in the data, in the analysis, and basically in every line of code, nothing. The model simply has sucked this year. As you can tell, I'm very frustrated and disappointed, but I'm keeping my cool.

This week I like the experienced Patriots over the Jets, is it Monday yet? Atlanta and Roddy White scoring touchdowns on Tampa Bay's strong D. Finally, at the top of the ATS Standings, the Rams beating down on a smiling Derek Anderson.

The last few weeks (except for the last which we usually don't bet) and the playoffs are historically my best weeks. Assuming this, then my probability of winning is higher. Therefore, according to the formula, the weekly risk increases a bit more. Now taking it at 25% giving each game this week a wager of $120. Good luck, it wouldn't hurt.

Other notable picks include: Chicago, Oakland, and Houston.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND	-3	-10.0	-6.5	64.3%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA	3	6.3	3.8	61.7%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY	3	12.1	9.1	61.5%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT	3.5	13.4	9.9	58.5%
OAKLAND @ SAN DIEGO	-13	-10	3	58.3%
HOUSTON @ PHILADEPHIA	-9	-3	6	55.4%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS	-7	-2	5	54.8%
CLEVELAND @ MIAMI	-4.5	-5.5	1.0	52.6%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-3	-6.1	-3.1	52.1%
PITTSBURGH @ BALTIMORE	-3	1	4	50.7%
BUFFALO @ MINNESOTA	-6.5	1.1	7.6	50.0%
DALLAS @ INDIANAPOLIS	-5.5	-3	-2.5	50.0%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY	-9	-10	-1	49.7%
SAN FRANCISCO @ GREEN BAY	-10	-16	-6	49.2%
NEW ORLEANS @ CINCINNATI	7	5.4	1.6	48.0%
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE	-6	-5	1	48.0%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 12

Pick 1: New England -7
Pick 2: Seattle +1
Pick 3: Philadelphia -3
Pick 4: New Orleans -3.5

Yey finally a winning week last week. Now lets start a streak. Two "NEW" picks for this Thursday that will make you enjoy your turkey even more. Model is finding big wins from big teams against the lesser. New Orleans routs Dallas and New England devours Detroit. Homedog Seattle defends its turf against KC, personally my toughest one to go with. Finally, Philly wins big in Soldier Field getting Cutler to pass 4 INT.

What do you think of buying half points? Maybe a good idea with two games currently at 3.5? At 20% bankroll gives us approximately $85 per game. Lets bring this home

Happy Thanksgiving! Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 12 of 2010.

UPDATE: I found the Eagles/Bears game at -3.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
NEW ENGLAND @ DETROIT	7	11.5	4.5	62.2%
KANSAS CITY @ SEATTLE	1	-7.0	-8.0	61.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ CHICAGO	3	6	3	60.1%
NEW ORLEANS @ DALLAS	3.5	13.7	10.2	58.0%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON	-2.5	7.0	9.5	56.4%
PITTSBURGH @ BUFFALO	6.5	9.4	2.9	52.6%
MIAMI @ OAKLAND	-3	14.2	17.2	51.6%
SAN DIEGO @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3	-0.6	2.4	51.6%
ST LOUIS @ DENVER	-4	-5.5	-1.5	51.4%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON	-5.5	-2	3.5	51.3%
CAROLINA @ CLEVELAND	-11	-15.9	-4.9	50.9%
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE	-7.5	-11.6	-4.1	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ NY GIANTS	-7.5	-9.5	-2.5	49.9%
GREEN BAY @ ATLANTA	-2.5	5.3	7.8	48.7%
CINCINNATI @ NY JETS	-9	-13	-4	48.2%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA	1	3.3	2.3	47.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 11

Pick 1: Green Bay -3
Pick 2: Buffalo +5.5
Pick 3: Denver +10

I like Green Bay beating down the broken Vikings, Buffalo putting a decent offensive show, and Denver keeping the game close at San Diego. Keeping the 20% bankroll use, gives us a bet of $105 per game. As always, interested in your plays.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 11 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA	3	7.6	3.6	60.1%
BUFFALO @ CINCINNATI	-5.5	-3	2.5	57.0%
DENVER @ SAN DIEGO	-10	-6.4	3.6	57.1%
TAMPA BAY @ SAN FRANCISCO	-3	2.2	5.2	56.9%
BALTIMORE @ CAROLINA	10	14.5	4.5	54.5%
ATLANTA @ ST LOUIS	3	6.0	3.0	54.1%
ARIZONA @ KANSAS CITY	-8	-13.0	-5	53.8%
HOUSTON @ NY JETS	-7	-7.1	-0.1	53.8%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-7	-7.3	-0.3	53.8%
WASHINGTON @ TENNESSEE	-7	-8.3	-1.3	51.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND	-3.5	-1.5	2.0	50.8%
CHICAGO @ MIAMI	-1	-3.9	-2.9	50.8%
DETROIT @ DALLAS	-6.5	-1.2	5.3	50.0%
SEATTLE @ NEW ORLEANS	-12	-7.2	4.8	48.0%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE	-1.5	4,3	5.8	47.5%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	-7.6	-4.6	47.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 10

Pick 1: Chicago +1
Pick 2: Philadelphia -3
Pick 3: Pittsburgh -4.5
Pick 4: Tennessee -1
Pick 5: Baltimore +1

This week we have 5 picks above the 57% threshold. For the first time, last week I made the exception to choose above 60 and lost two opportunities: TB and OAK. Never again. This week I personally don't like PIT or Baltimore and probably like Chicago 'cause I like the Bears. But this is what the model spita out, and believe it or not, I'm still confident we will come out winning this season.

Using 20% of bankroll for these week's picks, gives us $66/game. St. Louis came out strong underdog pick against SF, but given that both starting QBs are out, I will stay away from this game. Anything other significant injuries I may have missed?

Can you believe that Detroit is 8-1 and St. Louis is 6-2 ATS? Talking about picking a pony. To see current point spread standings click here.

Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 10 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO	1	-6.5	-7.5	63.4%
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON	3	6.7	4.7	60.3%
NEW ENGLAND @ PITTSBURGH	-4.5	-7	-2.5	58.0%
TENNESSEE @ MIAMI	1	2.3	1.3	57.1%
BALTIMORE @ ATLANTA	-1	1.3	2.3	57.1%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO	-6	4.5	10.5	NA
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS	-7	-12.4	-5.4	52.2%
DETROIT @ BUFFALO	-3	-4.5	-1.5	52.2%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA	-3	7.1	10.1	51.1%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER	1	9.9	8.9	50.0%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY	-6.5	-14.4	-7.9	50.0%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS	-14	-15.1	-1,1	49.1%
NY JETS @ CLEVELAND	3	3.9	0.9	48.7%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE	-1.5	-3	-1.5	48.6%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

Monday Night Football Pick Week 9

My carelessness was the reason for this week's unsuccessful picks. The Bears made the push which is part of the reason I'm adding a Monday Night Football pick this Sunday. But also, because after I heard that Hasselbeck wasn't playing, I didn't retire my pick. First, I should have stayed away from a game where the QB had a concussion, I always do. I also guess I need a better injury report. Any suggestions? The other reason for this pick is the difference in the estimate and the spread. The point spread is currently at 5.5 and the model is predicting at 21 for PIT. Although the confidence is below threshold at 53.5%, I'm going for it on 4th down.

Pick 3: PIT -5.5 +$125 (approx 8% of bankroll)

2010 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 9

Pick 1: Chicago -3 PUSH
Pick 2: Seattle +7

This week only two picks stood out to my struggling statistical models. Chicago is playing an 0-7 team on the road. Chicago's D is third in the league and given their expertise at taking the ball away, they could easily blowout this game without the help of its struggling offense (should they go for Moss? can they?). Seattle has a weak passing D, which could hurt. They're playing home and supposedly its one of the loudest places to play. One or two picks and they could keep this game close, and maybe take the win and keep their first place spot. Did anyone say homedog?

Again this week, we will use 20% of the bankroll for a total usage of $342.5. This places $171/game which we'll round to $175 per game. Lets take this money home this week, we need to get out of the red and jump back into green.

Other possibly good spread picks this week are Oakland and Tampa Bay. Once again, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 9 of 2010.

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
CHICAGO @ BUFFALO	3	7	4	66.4%
NY GIANTS @ SEATTLE	7	-11.0	-18	61.5%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA	-8.5	-2.1	6.4	57.8%
KANSAS CITY @ OAKLAND	-2.5	-5.0	-2.5	57.0%
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI	5	21.4	16.4	53.5%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY	-8	-9.5	-1.5	51.1%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PHILADELPHIA	-3	8.0	11.0	50.5%
NEW ENGLAND @ CLEVELAND	4.5	4.9	0.4	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	6.5	0.5	-6.0	50.0%
NY JETS @ DETROIT	4	3.0	-1.0	46.7%
MIAMI @ BALTIMORE	-5.5	3.2	8.7	49.2%
ARIZONA @ MINNESOTA	-9	-3.2	5.8	48.8%
SAN DIEGO @ HOUSTON	3	6	3	47.9%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.