2009 NFL Spread Picks Week 17

No Picks this week. There are too many variables to account for with many teams having nothing to play for. Baltimore, Chicago, and Philadelphia were tempting picks. We'll save our energy and money for the playoffs. Below is the table with point spread predictions.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread predictions for Week 17 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS-30.53.565%
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND10.512.01.561%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO-7.51.59.057%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA-7-9.0-2.057%
NEW ENGLAND @ HOUSTON-8-5.52.557%
CHICAGO @ DETROIT38.95.956%
NY GIANTS @ MINNESOTA-9-7.71.355%
WASHINGTON @ SAN DIEGO-4-7.2-3.254%
GREEN BAY @ ARIZONA-3.53.67.153%
TENNESSEE @ SEATTLE4.511.97.451%
ATLANTA @ TAMPA BAY2.59.16.650%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS714.27.249%
PITTSBURGH @ MIAMI37.14.147%
CINCINNATI @ NY JETS-10-12.2-2.245%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER-13-9.13.945%
JACKSONVILLE @ CLEVELAND-1-3.4-2.442%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: Denver +7 correct NFL point spread pick + $113.64
Pick 2: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $113.64
Pick 3: Oakland +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$125

I'll spare you this week of made up match-up descriptions, my gift to you these holidays :)

Your bankroll is your greatest asset, preserve it. But as the end of the season approaches and the return is up at 62%, we'll upgrade the bankroll for the coming weeks and the playoffs. This week, 22%. Three games = $125/gm. I'm on vacation (but still had some time to continue providing you with computer based NFL picks). Enjoy your holidays and Merry Christmas.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 16 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA-7-3.53.569%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND-7.5-9.1-1.659%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND-3.51.85.359%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI-14-15.5-1.555%
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS-5.5-8.0-2.554%
SAN DIEGO @ TENNESSEE-358.053%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON73.5-3.553%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA-14-17.7-3.753%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH-2.55.88.352%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS-7-6.70.350%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI-3-4.0-1.049%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY-14-12.91.148%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS-14-17.0-3.048%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO711.04.046%
BUFFALO @ ATLANTA-9-5.04.046%
DETROIT @ SAN FRANCISCO-12-10.21.845%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: New England -7 PUSH
Pick 2: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 3: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $83.33
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -1 PUSH

As the playoffs approach, point spread estimates and picks should be considered very carefully. Teams with secured spots sit their main players and others do not play as hard as they usually do. Usually, week 17 is a no-bet, unless one finds opportunities in games where both teams are fighting for either a playoff spot or home field advantage. I expect the Saints and Colts to continue to play hard and cover the spread this week in order to try to finish with a perfect season.

With a little over 20% of the bankroll, we'll continue our disciplined betting system and strive for more growth as the season ends. With four picks, this equals ~ $100/game. This computer based system has proven to be very successful in the playoffs so we should be decreasing bets in week 16 and 17 and increase for the playoffs.

New England @ Buffalo $100 - The Patriots have done terribly on the road (1-5), but the Bills are not doing that well either at home. Bills have lost to the Patriots in their last 12 games! 12 is a small number I know, but it is reassuring to know. New England needs this game a lot more than the Bills. New England rocks the Bills.

Dallas @ New Orleans $100 - The Saints at home, do I need to say more?

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville $100 (120) - Everyone is all over this spread, which gives me less confident than more. All starters are expected to play on Thursday for the Colts. Will the 22-game winning streak be stopped by the Jaguars? I don't think so. The estimate and the spread are very different, a not so common situation when there are no key players sitting out.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh $100 - What, the Steelers are going to win this game? This is a classical game of buy low/sell high. The Steelers' 5-game losing streak has this spread beaten down. Also, look at Green Bay's wins: Chicago (2), St. Louis, Detroit (2), Cleveland, Dallas, SF, Baltimore. It's time they face a "tough" team.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 15 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO79.72.767%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS-7-10.7-3.762%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE3.014.311.357%
GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH-1-6.0-5.057%
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE-7-11.4-4.453%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA-93.312.350%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON3-1.9-4.950%
ATLANTA @ NY JETS-6-7.1-1.149%
OAKLAND @ DENVER-14-19.0-5.048%
HOUSTON @ ST LOUIS10.519.28.748%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA917.28.248%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT128.0-4.047%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY-2-4.2-2.247%
CHICAGO @ BALTIMORE-10.5-13.0-2.546%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO-6.5-7.5-1.045%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE-3-10.3-7.345%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Denver +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 2: Green Bay -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $90.91
Pick 3: Arizona -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 4: Miami +3 correct NFL point spread pick + $90.91

Statistics, NFL, Mineful, and golf, all my favorite things to do, seem so unimportant compared to one's child. This week I experienced a perfect birth and it put everything into perspective. After my precious daughter was born this Monday, I realized that everything I do, including this blog, is for my children's health, education, and better life.

This blog is not only about making picks, but about sports investing discipline. We've gone up and down, but thanks this year's new money management strategy, today we are above 65% ROI. If we maintain moderation in our investment, we'll stay strong until the end of the year and years to come. If not, you may end up being the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. - W.I.E. Gates

The short short version of each game.
DEN @ IND $100 - Both teams are 8-4 ATS. Indi is playing for their perfect season and Denver for the playoffs, which one is more important?
GB @ CHI $100 - Chicago just plain sucks. Green Bay is hungry for the wild card. The Packers destroy the Bears.
ARI @ SF $100 - Arizona is back to its Super Bowl shape but the spread has yet to notice. Although SF is #1 ATS in the league, this may be the over-correction week.
MIA @ JAC $100 - Miami has faced a much tougher schedule and hence its lower standing. Many formulas out there are based on W-L record, not mine.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 14 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ INDIANAPOLIS-70.77.760%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO38.55.559%
ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO37.04.059%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE-35.78.758%
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON-6-9.8-3.856%
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA-6.5-11.0-4.553%
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE-13.5-16.0-2.553%
CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND-13.5-15.6-2.153%
BUFFALO @ KANSAS CITY03.53.553%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY GIANTS-11.02.051%
SAN DIEGO @ DALLAS-31.04.050%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA9.511.52.050%
NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY3.511.27.750%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND109.1-0.949%
ST LOUIS @ TENNESSEE-13-16.7-3.748%
WASHINGTON @ OAKLAND16.3-2.447%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: New Orleans -9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$120
Pick 2: Indianapolis -7 correct NFL point spread pick + $109.09
Pick 3: Denver -5 correct NFL point spread pick + $109.09

Slowly getting out of the pickle with NFLpickles. 7-1 the last two weeks and I'm as confident as always in these week's picks. New Orleans has not demonstrated convincing wins on the road against weak teams (hence the underestimation of this 11-0 team), but after last week's performance how could one ignore this pick? I love betting with Indi. This team never gives up; positive attitudes, hard work, and discipline are components of an 11-0 team that I like to see. 7 points at home? I'm all over this. Finally, Denver is being underrated by much in this game. Orton and the gang are coming back to the shape they were in the early weeks, and a beaten down KC will lose by much more than 5 points.

As for bankroll, we'll continue our conservative 22% approach and distribute them equally to each pick. That is, each pick will receive $120. Sorry for the brief report this week, my wife is starting to have contractions and I may be a father once again soon. Good luck!

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 13 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON9.511.52.063%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS-7-15.4-8.460%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY516.711.757%
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO-9-7.31.755%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH-14-4.89.253%
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI-13-15.4-2.453%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA42.2-1.852%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO37.34.352%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND1311.5-1.550%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI5.510.85.350%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA-6.5-5.70.849%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA5.50.9-4.648%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS2.54.31.848%
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY-3-4.1-1.146%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE010.810.845%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE05.05.044%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.