2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: Denver +7 correct NFL point spread pick + $113.64
Pick 2: New England -7.5 correct NFL point spread pick + $113.64
Pick 3: Oakland +3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$125

I'll spare you this week of made up match-up descriptions, my gift to you these holidays :)

Your bankroll is your greatest asset, preserve it. But as the end of the season approaches and the return is up at 62%, we'll upgrade the bankroll for the coming weeks and the playoffs. This week, 22%. Three games = $125/gm. I'm on vacation (but still had some time to continue providing you with computer based NFL picks). Enjoy your holidays and Merry Christmas.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 16 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
DENVER @ PHILADELPHIA-7-3.53.569%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND-7.5-9.1-1.659%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND-3.51.85.359%
KANSAS CITY @ CINCINNATI-14-15.5-1.555%
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS-5.5-8.0-2.554%
SAN DIEGO @ TENNESSEE-358.053%
DALLAS @ WASHINGTON73.5-3.553%
ST LOUIS @ ARIZONA-14-17.7-3.753%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH-2.55.88.352%
CAROLINA @ NY GIANTS-7-6.70.350%
HOUSTON @ MIAMI-3-4.0-1.049%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY-14-12.91.148%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS-14-17.0-3.048%
MINNESOTA @ CHICAGO711.04.046%
BUFFALO @ ATLANTA-9-5.04.046%
DETROIT @ SAN FRANCISCO-12-10.21.845%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

7 comments:

ahusein said...

So, I've been reading your blog for a while. But I have to say, I don't think you're quite on the money this week.

My own system which i've been modeling all season (using methods similar to yours) predicts philly to beat denver by roughly 8 points, and New England to beat jacksonville by almost exactly 7 points (the oakland pick is good though, I have them up by 4).

--Adam
www.adamscorner.com/nfl.html

HappyBreathNet said...

I like your Denver pick (I have Philly by 4.6). I have JAC +9. My actual line is NE -6.7, so it would be a non-bet if I'd faced a -7.5 line. We faced different lines this week (I made my picks late). If I could've gotten OAK +3.5 I would have taken it. I show CLE -1.9 in that game.

My favorite is KC +13.5 (I like +14 even better, wish I'd picked earlier).

Anyway, Merry Christmas.

Happy

dtBy said...

Happy holidays!

I've been out of the loop for so long now, but I still check-in at least once a week.

I really really don't like the Broncos pick.. based purely off the numbers since I don't get to watch any more.

NE seems tight and Oak seems good.

M

Jaime said...

I love when people disagree! I wasn't sure myself, but I go with the numbers not my gut. Anything can happen right?

dtBy, good to hear from you. Happy Holidays to you. DEN will win and enter the playoffs (even though the prediction is 3 for PHI). NE seems tight, but they'll win by 10. They haven't clinched yet right? Miami has the tie-breaker?

Jaime said...

Funny how "good" picks turn sour. Oakland was a "sure" bet and boom. Denver a bad bet, and turned good. The lesson: anything can happen. Keep multiple picks and don't put too much weight on one of them, better to all high confident picks to get equal weights.

dtBy said...

I thought this was supposed to be easy money?!

Jaime said...

Funny dtby, but as the saying goes there is no such thing as a free lunch, or in this case, as an easy lunch. Discipline and consistency will bring good results.