2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: Denver +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 2: Green Bay -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $90.91
Pick 3: Arizona -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 4: Miami +3 correct NFL point spread pick + $90.91

Statistics, NFL, Mineful, and golf, all my favorite things to do, seem so unimportant compared to one's child. This week I experienced a perfect birth and it put everything into perspective. After my precious daughter was born this Monday, I realized that everything I do, including this blog, is for my children's health, education, and better life.

This blog is not only about making picks, but about sports investing discipline. We've gone up and down, but thanks this year's new money management strategy, today we are above 65% ROI. If we maintain moderation in our investment, we'll stay strong until the end of the year and years to come. If not, you may end up being the man who drowned crossing a stream with an average depth of six inches. - W.I.E. Gates

The short short version of each game.
DEN @ IND $100 - Both teams are 8-4 ATS. Indi is playing for their perfect season and Denver for the playoffs, which one is more important?
GB @ CHI $100 - Chicago just plain sucks. Green Bay is hungry for the wild card. The Packers destroy the Bears.
ARI @ SF $100 - Arizona is back to its Super Bowl shape but the spread has yet to notice. Although SF is #1 ATS in the league, this may be the over-correction week.
MIA @ JAC $100 - Miami has faced a much tougher schedule and hence its lower standing. Many formulas out there are based on W-L record, not mine.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 14 of 2009.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON-6-9.8-3.856%
CINCINNATI @ MINNESOTA-6.5-11.0-4.553%
DETROIT @ BALTIMORE-13.5-16.0-2.553%
CAROLINA @ NEW ENGLAND-13.5-15.6-2.153%
SAN DIEGO @ DALLAS-31.04.050%
NEW ORLEANS @ ATLANTA9.511.52.050%
NY JETS @ TAMPA BAY3.511.27.750%
ST LOUIS @ TENNESSEE-13-16.7-3.748%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


HappyBreathNet said…
Congratulations!! It's always good to put things back into perspective, so thanks.

I like your MIA and GB picks. I also like CAR, SD, and BUF this week. That's based on BUF +1 (covers.com). I noticed that projectpointspread had BUF as the favorite.

- Happy
HappyBreathNet said…
Good luck in the Arizona game. I broke out of my slump in a big way this week (8/8 ATS, 11/11 bet units). It's wild how the models know more than intuition. I would've expected SD to blow out Dallas and GB to blow out CHI. Both were actually pretty close, as predicted by the models.
Jaime said…
Great week Happy! My picks didn't go as well as expected. Overall, the picks did well (11-4, 73%), but not the ones with high confidence.
HappyBreathNet said…
It's weird how that happens (darn standard deviation). My non-bets (67% year to date) are actually faring better than my best bets (59%) YTD. My bet units are even worse (58%) because when my confidence has been high enough to warrant 3 or 4 bet units I've lost more often than not!

Better luck this next week. I traded the farm to get Larry Fitzgerald in my FF league. Hope his injury isn't serious.
John said…
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