2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: New Orleans -9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$120
Pick 2: Indianapolis -7 correct NFL point spread pick + $109.09
Pick 3: Denver -5 correct NFL point spread pick + $109.09

Slowly getting out of the pickle with NFLpickles. 7-1 the last two weeks and I'm as confident as always in these week's picks. New Orleans has not demonstrated convincing wins on the road against weak teams (hence the underestimation of this 11-0 team), but after last week's performance how could one ignore this pick? I love betting with Indi. This team never gives up; positive attitudes, hard work, and discipline are components of an 11-0 team that I like to see. 7 points at home? I'm all over this. Finally, Denver is being underrated by much in this game. Orton and the gang are coming back to the shape they were in the early weeks, and a beaten down KC will lose by much more than 5 points.

As for bankroll, we'll continue our conservative 22% approach and distribute them equally to each pick. That is, each pick will receive $120. Sorry for the brief report this week, my wife is starting to have contractions and I may be a father once again soon. Good luck!

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 13 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON9.511.52.063%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS-7-15.4-8.460%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY516.711.757%
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO-9-7.31.755%
OAKLAND @ PITTSBURGH-14-4.89.253%
DETROIT @ CINCINNATI-13-15.4-2.453%
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA42.2-1.852%
NY JETS @ BUFFALO37.34.352%
SAN DIEGO @ CLEVELAND1311.5-1.550%
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI5.510.85.350%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA-6.5-5.70.849%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA5.50.9-4.648%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS2.54.31.848%
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY-3-4.1-1.146%
HOUSTON @ JACKSONVILLE010.810.845%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE05.05.044%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

6 comments:

HappyBreathNet said...

I think Denver is the favorite, but I agree with you.

NO -9.5 (best bet)
SD -13 (best bet)
OAK +14
DEN -4.5
TB +6.5
CIN -13

STL +9.5
MIN -4

HappyBreathNet said...

STL +9.5 and Min -4 are non-bets, but are included on Project Pointspread and Covers League champions.

Jaime said...

Happy, I agree with your STL and CIN pick. TB is a no-play and is Ben Roethlisberger playing?

HappyBreathNet said...

I don't know if Ben is playing or not. Same with Warner. I think that explains why Project Pointspread didn't have lines on those games (I couldn't figure out why it didn't).

Lee said...

FYI, it is spelled "ado", as you use it here. "Adieu" means goodbye in French.

Jaime said...

Thanks Lee! Week 14 picks coming tonight.