2009 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: New England -7 PUSH
Pick 2: New Orleans -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick -$100
Pick 3: Indianapolis -3 correct NFL point spread pick + $83.33
Pick 4: Pittsburgh -1 PUSH

As the playoffs approach, point spread estimates and picks should be considered very carefully. Teams with secured spots sit their main players and others do not play as hard as they usually do. Usually, week 17 is a no-bet, unless one finds opportunities in games where both teams are fighting for either a playoff spot or home field advantage. I expect the Saints and Colts to continue to play hard and cover the spread this week in order to try to finish with a perfect season.

With a little over 20% of the bankroll, we'll continue our disciplined betting system and strive for more growth as the season ends. With four picks, this equals ~ $100/game. This computer based system has proven to be very successful in the playoffs so we should be decreasing bets in week 16 and 17 and increase for the playoffs.

New England @ Buffalo $100 - The Patriots have done terribly on the road (1-5), but the Bills are not doing that well either at home. Bills have lost to the Patriots in their last 12 games! 12 is a small number I know, but it is reassuring to know. New England needs this game a lot more than the Bills. New England rocks the Bills.

Dallas @ New Orleans $100 - The Saints at home, do I need to say more?

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville $100 (120) - Everyone is all over this spread, which gives me less confident than more. All starters are expected to play on Thursday for the Colts. Will the 22-game winning streak be stopped by the Jaguars? I don't think so. The estimate and the spread are very different, a not so common situation when there are no key players sitting out.

Green Bay @ Pittsburgh $100 - What, the Steelers are going to win this game? This is a classical game of buy low/sell high. The Steelers' 5-game losing streak has this spread beaten down. Also, look at Green Bay's wins: Chicago (2), St. Louis, Detroit (2), Cleveland, Dallas, SF, Baltimore. It's time they face a "tough" team.

Without further ado, here are the NFLpickles free point spread estimates for Week 15 of 2009.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO79.72.767%
DALLAS @ NEW ORLEANS-7-10.7-3.762%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE3.014.311.357%
GREEN BAY @ PITTSBURGH-1-6.0-5.057%
TAMPA BAY @ SEATTLE-7-11.4-4.453%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PHILADELPHIA-93.312.350%
NY GIANTS @ WASHINGTON3-1.9-4.950%
ATLANTA @ NY JETS-6-7.1-1.149%
OAKLAND @ DENVER-14-19.0-5.048%
HOUSTON @ ST LOUIS10.519.28.748%
MINNESOTA @ CAROLINA917.28.248%
ARIZONA @ DETROIT128.0-4.047%
CLEVELAND @ KANSAS CITY-2-4.2-2.247%
CHICAGO @ BALTIMORE-10.5-13.0-2.546%
CINCINNATI @ SAN DIEGO-6.5-7.5-1.045%
MIAMI @ TENNESSEE-3-10.3-7.345%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

4 comments:

HappyBreathNet said...

Nice start ( :

Jaime said...

Although a no bet for you, your line was right on the money. Mine was a bit off, but at least on the right side.

siggy said...

Congrats on the birth of your daughter.

Anthony said...

In the GB vs Pitt narrative you mention the teams that GB beat. I did not know they were such low quality wins. Pitt's wins look a little better: TEN, SD, DET, CLE, MIN, DEN. But look at who beat Pitt: CHI, CIN (2), KC, BAL, OAK, CLE.

It seems like both teams have a week schedule. But at least GB is doing what you are suppose to do when you play bad teams, Win.