NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12
NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11
The easiest pick of the week has gotta be the Eagles. I'll explain below why. Other solid opportunities and volatile stay aways are published on my Rokfin channel.
Philadelphia -6.5
This spread was 6.5 the past two days, but unfortunately today is at 7 (-105). We still pick it at 7 for the risk of a push. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a blowout. There is some talk about this one loss team dismantling, crumbling, etc. The Commanders played well and Heineke was pumped like his job depended on it. Now these Eagles come back with vengeance.
- This is another all the predictions are pointing north of 7, closer to 10.
- Are we catching a bit of recency bias from Indy's last week's win against the Raiders? Big difference between Raiders and Eagles.
- Crazy line movement after Eagles' loss. Over reaction.
- Colts second game on the road now facing a non-conference opponent who happens to be the best in that conference.
- Colts don't have a QB. Fade Matt Ryan. The team wins, the defense covers.
- Against: JT is back hitting over 20 mph rushing.
NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 10
Another great and perfect week last week. I gave you Baltimore here free on MNF. This week's free pick is (make sure to see all my picks on Rokfin).
Kansas City -9.5
Is this a trap? Am I getting sucked in because it is not 10? Maybe, but it's time for this KC team to have another blowout. Last week we were on Tennessee because they got 12 points and now Jacksonville gets 9.5?
- Surprisingly, the split is not favoring KC by much. Not a chalk play.
- Lawrence is 3-11 ATS on the road, 9-19 lifetime ATS.
- Jaguars ranked 27th against the pass. KC 20th against the run, not great and hopefully enough to stop Etienne
- Let down spot? Back cover? If it was above 10 I would agree, but the backdoor could simply be to end at -10
- Models off the chart on this game. All consistently near -17 points.
NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 9
Last week I warned you about Brady and Rodgers. Brady looked as bad as ever and Rodgers if it wasn't for that last trash TD, he would've been the same. Those games were stay aways, but Seattle, New England, and Tennessee all hit. Arizona would've covered if it wasn't for that muffled punt return. Anyways, seems like the last few weeks we've bet dogs that are ugly and favorites that will destroy their competition. We go for the kill on week 9.
Baltimore -2.5
Most of the tickets are on the Saints somehow which made this line move from the critical -3 to give us that valuable half point. The Saints are coming off a 24-0 win against a flu invected Raiders but yet they seem inflated here's why:
- Baltimore still has the #2 offense in the league and we like good offenses.
- Andy Dalton vs Lamar Jackson; look at their TD/INT ratio; Dalton will throw at least one pick
- Baltimore is going into a bye after this; there's a trend, not as good as coming off a bye week
- Road teams favorite by 2.5 are 62% ATS in last 70 gamesThe Ravens upgraded their defense with Roqwan Smith (thumbnail featured) who leads the league in tackles
Bateman is out and Andrews questionable (likely to play) but they have enough forces to continue running the ball on teams. With an upgrade on their defense, it should all balance out and the better team wins. This is Monday Night money!
Get the other 4 picks right here.