NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12

Great win on Thursday Night Football last week and a great pick on the Chargers. The Eagles disappointed in a game they should've covered. The Giants pick was trash in hindsight. This week's analysis is specifically hard because of all the injuries. Games with Arizona and Rams where a backup QB is starting are a non-starter for our methodology. Other games do pop out once the spreads were estimated. 

Thanksgiving Picks

I'll summarize my findings of all games with one pick. If you want to see the actual model output, see the image below. Here's the pick:

Tease: New York Giants +15.5, Buffalo -3.5, New England +8.5. A brief overview of each game:

Detroit is very unpredictable as they've been scoring lots of point and have won the last 3. Sell high. They beat crappy teams. The Bills on the other hand are still a top 3 team on offense and defense. They covered last week, barely, with 6 field goals. Against Detroit which has a banged up defense, those FG turn to TDs on primetime. But watch out for that trash TD so we tease.

The Giants disappointed last week and could well be on their way to the bottom, but 9.5 point underdog on a divisional game? Dallas coming off a blowout, sell high. The problem is that there could be a scenario where the Giants can't score and the Cowboys win by a lot. Divisional games with home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games. Will they lose by more than two TDs? We think not.

New England +2.5

LIVE DOG!!! This game might as well be an official lock. The number one defense in the league, yep that's right, Bill Bellichick has manufactured the best defense in the NFL. They playbook against Cousins was laid out last week and the Patriots will eat. In fact, they should win outright, small dog. All models pointing at the Patriots winning. The Vikings DVOA sinks to bottom half of the league on both offense and defense. Only worry is the Pats scoring, this cannot turn into a shoot out. Defense stops the pass and creates a few turnovers, Pats cover.

Get all other picks on my Rokfin channel. Rokfin.com/NFLpickles

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11

The easiest pick of the week has gotta be the Eagles. I'll explain below why. Other solid opportunities and volatile stay aways are published on my Rokfin channel.

Philadelphia -6.5

This spread was 6.5 the past two days, but unfortunately today is at 7 (-105). We still pick it at 7 for the risk of a push. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a blowout. There is some talk about this one loss team dismantling, crumbling, etc. The Commanders played well and Heineke was pumped like his job depended on it. Now these Eagles come back with vengeance. 

• This is another all the predictions are pointing north of 7, closer to 10. 
• Are we catching a bit of recency bias from Indy's last week's win against the Raiders? Big difference between Raiders and Eagles.
• Crazy line movement after Eagles' loss. Over reaction.
• Colts second game on the road now facing a non-conference opponent who happens to be the best in that conference.
• Colts don't have a QB. Fade Matt Ryan. The team wins, the defense covers. 
• Against: JT is back hitting over 20 mph rushing.

3 other games analyzed with the same level of statistical rigorousness here.

 

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 10

Another great and perfect week last week. I gave you Baltimore here free on MNF. This week's free pick is (make sure to see all my picks on Rokfin).

Kansas City -9.5

Is this a trap? Am I getting sucked in because it is not 10? Maybe, but it's time for this KC team to have another blowout. Last week we were on Tennessee because they got 12 points and now Jacksonville gets 9.5? 

• Surprisingly, the split is not favoring KC by much. Not a chalk play.
• Lawrence is 3-11 ATS on the road, 9-19 lifetime ATS.
• Jaguars ranked 27th against the pass. KC 20th against the run, not great and hopefully enough to stop Etienne
• Let down spot? Back cover? If it was above 10 I would agree, but the backdoor could simply be to end at -10
• Models off the chart on this game. All consistently near -17 points. 

Go to Rokfin.com to get all my picks.

NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 9

Last week I warned you about Brady and Rodgers. Brady looked as bad as ever and Rodgers if it wasn't for that last trash TD, he would've been the same. Those games were stay aways, but Seattle, New England, and Tennessee all hit. Arizona would've covered if it wasn't for that muffled punt return. Anyways, seems like the last few weeks we've bet dogs that are ugly and favorites that will destroy their competition. We go for the kill on week 9.

Baltimore -2.5

Most of the tickets are on the Saints somehow which made this line move from the critical -3 to give us that valuable half point. The Saints are coming off a 24-0 win against a flu invected Raiders but yet they seem inflated here's why:

• Baltimore still has the #2 offense in the league and we like good offenses.
• Andy Dalton vs Lamar Jackson; look at their TD/INT ratio; Dalton will throw at least one pick
• Baltimore is going into a bye after this; there's a trend, not as good as coming off a bye week
• Road teams favorite by 2.5 are 62% ATS in last 70 gamesThe Ravens upgraded their defense with Roqwan Smith (thumbnail featured) who leads the league in tackles

Bateman is out and Andrews questionable (likely to play) but they have enough forces to continue running the ball on teams. With an upgrade on their defense, it should all balance out and the better team wins. This is Monday Night money!

Get the other 4 picks right here.