NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 12

Great win on Thursday Night Football last week and a great pick on the Chargers. The Eagles disappointed in a game they should've covered. The Giants pick was trash in hindsight. This week's analysis is specifically hard because of all the injuries. Games with Arizona and Rams where a backup QB is starting are a non-starter for our methodology. Other games do pop out once the spreads were estimated. 

Thanksgiving Picks
I'll summarize my findings of all games with one pick. If you want to see the actual model output, see the image below. Here's the pick:

Tease: New York Giants +15.5, Buffalo -3.5, New England +8.5. A brief overview of each game:

Detroit is very unpredictable as they've been scoring lots of point and have won the last 3. Sell high. They beat crappy teams. The Bills on the other hand are still a top 3 team on offense and defense. They covered last week, barely, with 6 field goals. Against Detroit which has a banged up defense, those FG turn to TDs on primetime. But watch out for that trash TD so we tease.

The Giants disappointed last week and could well be on their way to the bottom, but 9.5 point underdog on a divisional game? Dallas coming off a blowout, sell high. The problem is that there could be a scenario where the Giants can't score and the Cowboys win by a lot. Divisional games with home teams favorite by more than 7 but less than 10 are 10-5 ATS in the last 15 games. Will they lose by more than two TDs? We think not.

New England +2.5
LIVE DOG!!! This game might as well be an official lock. The number one defense in the league, yep that's right, Bill Bellichick has manufactured the best defense in the NFL. They playbook against Cousins was laid out last week and the Patriots will eat. In fact, they should win outright, small dog. All models pointing at the Patriots winning. The Vikings DVOA sinks to bottom half of the league on both offense and defense. Only worry is the Pats scoring, this cannot turn into a shoot out. Defense stops the pass and creates a few turnovers, Pats cover.

Get all other picks on my Rokfin channel.