NFL Machine Learning Picks - Week 11

The easiest pick of the week has gotta be the Eagles. I'll explain below why. Other solid opportunities and volatile stay aways are published on my Rokfin channel.

Philadelphia -6.5

This spread was 6.5 the past two days, but unfortunately today is at 7 (-105). We still pick it at 7 for the risk of a push. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a blowout. There is some talk about this one loss team dismantling, crumbling, etc. The Commanders played well and Heineke was pumped like his job depended on it. Now these Eagles come back with vengeance. 

  • This is another all the predictions are pointing north of 7, closer to 10. 
  • Are we catching a bit of recency bias from Indy's last week's win against the Raiders? Big difference between Raiders and Eagles.
  • Crazy line movement after Eagles' loss. Over reaction.
  • Colts second game on the road now facing a non-conference opponent who happens to be the best in that conference.
  • Colts don't have a QB. Fade Matt Ryan. The team wins, the defense covers. 
  • Against: JT is back hitting over 20 mph rushing.
3 other games analyzed with the same level of statistical rigorousness here.