2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1

Pick 1: Seattle -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Lets get to it right away. Comment your opinions and top picks. This year picks are FREE during the regular season. Come back and check results. This is my 8th year doing this, all results are accessible by year and week. If you know something I may not, comment, it's for the best of this community. I've always believed that there is a bias by bettors that don't use statistical algorithms to make betting decisions. Transparency and analytical is how I roll. Lets win some money together.

This week start betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 4.5 10.4 5.9 65.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA -3 -8.4 -5.4 59.4%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 7 10.2 3.2 58.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA 3 7.6 4.6 55.6%
CAROLINA @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 -1.2 -4.7 54.9%
MIAMI @ WASHINGTON 4 -0.7 -4.7 54.9%
TENNESSEE @ TAMPA BAY -3 -4.1 -1.1 53.0%
DETROIT @ SAN DIEGO -3 -5.3 -2.3 53.0%
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND 3.5 4.8 1.3 52.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO 3 4.1 1.1 52.6%
KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON -1 0.9 1.9 52.6%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS -6 -11.1 -5.1 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS -3 -2.0 1.0 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -22.9 -15.9 49.3%
MINNESOTA @ SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 -5.0 -7.5 48.1%
BALTIMORE @ DENVER -5 -8.9 -3.9 47.6%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

14 comments:

johnbart said...

Here are my lines on your picks:

SEA -4.15
NO -0.41
GB -11.99

So the only pick I agree on is the GB -7.

This early in the season the numbers rely too much on last season for me so I just use them as leans and not as picks. Real picks start up 2nd or 3rd week for me.

Brock Landers said...

Looking forward to your picks this season. I found "pickles" during the offseason, while I was doing statistical handicapping research. And I have been checking your site daily the last two weeks for your week 1 picks. I have two statistical methods that I use both based on points scored and points allowed. If both methodologies are in agreement then I have a play. I dont have a programming background, so I do all my work in a excel spreadsheet. These are my plays for week 1

Green Bay -7
Miami -3.5
Cleveland +3.5
Cincinnati -3
Philadelphia -3

It surprised me that your model has Washington winning straight up. I also had Carolina, KC, and, Seattle, but I think Carolina will struggle to score points, Seattle has offensive line issues and KC vs Houston could go either way. Anywho Good Luck this season

Jaime Brugueras said...

Looks like so far we all agree on Green Bay. I think Seattle should do well. I'm worried about NO, but since their roster has changed a lot don't know how quickly they'll adjust.

johnbart said...

Welcome Brock. Most of us do work on the numbers side of handicapping. I started off similarly with PF/PA before diving deeper into the rabbit hole. Even if you don't have a programming background there are plenty of tools out there to help you dig deeper.

Gretl and R are a couple of great programs for doing logarithmic and linear regressions. Even if you don't have a background in statistics regressions are easy to understand and do after just a bit of reading.

FANN is another great tool, although mostly needs some programming help, for digging into neural networks. It's a bit more hardcore but it's something to keep on your path :)

At the end of the day I also still believe in bringing some standard handicapping approaches to picks as well. Numbers provide me a starting point to find weaknesses and then I use some old school checks to find traps, etc.

My lines for the games you're looking at:

MIA (-3.6)
CLE (+4.1)
CIN (-4.1)
PHI (+2.3)

I don't trust my PHI #'s at this point considering it's practically a whole new team. This is why I don't make real picks for the first couple of weeks until the numbers for this season start to take over.

RealLine said...

Hi All! I found this site during the off season too. I'm part of a handicapping group that uses a lot of the same mathematical approaches. We post all of our picks on our public twitter feed a few minutes after kick-off every week.

https://twitter.com/RealLineNFL

We don't sell picks or run a tout service so we just make our picks public for fun. I'm looking forward to following the conversations here this season.

Proost!

RealLine said...

We don't make picks during the first week due to a lack of data about the teams but here are some leans given what data we have:

GB (-7.0)
HOU (PK)
DAL(-6.0)
ATL(+3.0)
SF(+2.5)

johnbart said...

Strong week 1 everyone! I'm a bit surprised with the Monday night results but it looks like ReaLine had them nailed.

geekman said...

I look forward to reading this blog this season! I am also a statistician and I am going to post my own picks, as well as in depth analysis into the NFL. You can find my blog here:

nflprofits.wordpress.com

Jaime Brugueras said...

That's great geekman.The more the merrier. You must be old(er) like me if you consider yourself a statistician. Now I'm a data scientist at work.

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