2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 3

Pick 1: Kansas City +7 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Denver -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Indianapolis -3.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

It somewhat makes me uncomfortable to see 4 visiting teams as pick but if that's the way the algorithm works then let be it. I also don't feel comfortable betting against the Packers but Kansas City is also a good bet. Indianapolis has had a rough start and it's probably under valued because of that. Detroit doesn't look good and although Manning had points in the game that looked like his last days, he was able to make a heck of a comeback. Plus the Denver defense (which I just picked up in my fantasy league) can turn the game our way.

It is cool at least that two of the games are night games. This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 4 NFL games, giving us a bet of $375 per game. Below is week 3 NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
KANSAS CITY @ GREEN BAY -7 -0.9 6.1 68.0%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA -6.5 -2.2 4.3 66.7%
DENVER @ DETROIT 3.5 8.4 4.9 58.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ TENNESSEE 3.5 20.0 16.5 57.7%
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE -2.5 3.0 5.5 55.6%
CHICAGO @ SEATTLE -15 -17.9 -2.9 54.2%
JACKSONVILLE @ NEW ENGLAND -14 -21.2 -7.2 53.5%
BUFFALO @ MIAMI -3 2.0 5.0 52.7%
TAMPA BAY @ HOUSTON -6.5 -8.3 -1.8 51.8%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA -6.5 3.3 9.8 51.6%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS -3.5 -0.3 3.2 50.7%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND -3.5 -2.7 0.8 50.5%
SAN DIEGO @ MINNESOTA -2.5 -3 -0.5 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ ST LOUIS 2 4.0 2.0 50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ NY JETS -3 6.4 9.4 49.2%
ATLANTA @ DALLAS 2 -12.7 -14.7 NA

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 2

Pick 1: Arizona -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Detroit +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Giants -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Great way to start, I'll take 2-1 every week. This weekend I see Cutler continue to crumble (at home), Detroit will out pass Minnesota's running game and the Giants will bounce back from an almost win in Dallas. What are your most confident bets?

This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $525 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ CHICAGO 2.5 8.1 5.6 65.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -3 2.4 5.4 59.0%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS -1.5 -4.0 -2.5 57.4%
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND 7 9.3 2.3 56.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 1.5 9.9 8.4 53.5%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE 6.5 10.6 4.1 52.5%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON 4 -4.7 -8.7 52.4%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -0.5 3.0 51.1%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -3 0.2 3.2 50.0%
HOUSTON @ CAROLINA -3 0.5 3.5 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -10.1 -0.1 50.0%
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS -7 -7.6 -0.6 50.0%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY -4 -1.4 2.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND 1 -1.1 -2.1 49.7%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -5.5 -2.1 3.4 48.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PITTSBURGH -5.5 -0.7 4.8 47.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 1

Pick 1: Seattle -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Arizona -3 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Green Bay -7 correct NFL point spread pick

Lets get to it right away. Comment your opinions and top picks. This year picks are FREE during the regular season. Come back and check results. This is my 8th year doing this, all results are accessible by year and week. If you know something I may not, comment, it's for the best of this community. I've always believed that there is a bias by bettors that don't use statistical algorithms to make betting decisions. Transparency and analytical is how I roll. Lets win some money together.

This week start betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $500 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS 4.5 10.4 5.9 65.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ ARIZONA -3 -8.4 -5.4 59.4%
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO 7 10.2 3.2 58.3%
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA 3 7.6 4.6 55.6%
CAROLINA @ JACKSONVILLE 3.5 -1.2 -4.7 54.9%
MIAMI @ WASHINGTON 4 -0.7 -4.7 54.9%
TENNESSEE @ TAMPA BAY -3 -4.1 -1.1 53.0%
DETROIT @ SAN DIEGO -3 -5.3 -2.3 53.0%
CINCINNATI @ OAKLAND 3.5 4.8 1.3 52.6%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BUFFALO 3 4.1 1.1 52.6%
KANSAS CITY @ HOUSTON -1 0.9 1.9 52.6%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS -6 -11.1 -5.1 50.0%
CLEVELAND @ NY JETS -3 -2.0 1.0 50.0%
PITTSBURGH @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -22.9 -15.9 49.3%
MINNESOTA @ SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 -5.0 -7.5 48.1%
BALTIMORE @ DENVER -5 -8.9 -3.9 47.6%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.