2015 NFL Point Spread Picks - Week 2

Pick 1: Arizona -2.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Detroit +3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Giants -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Great way to start, I'll take 2-1 every week. This weekend I see Cutler continue to crumble (at home), Detroit will out pass Minnesota's running game and the Giants will bounce back from an almost win in Dallas. What are your most confident bets?

This week we continue betting 15% of the bankroll split evenly across the 3 NFL games, giving us a bet of $525 per game. Below is our table with free NFL point spread predictions.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
ARIZONA @ CHICAGO 2.5 8.1 5.6 65.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -3 2.4 5.4 59.0%
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS -1.5 -4.0 -2.5 57.4%
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND 7 9.3 2.3 56.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 1.5 9.9 8.4 53.5%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE 6.5 10.6 4.1 52.5%
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON 4 -4.7 -8.7 52.4%
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI -3.5 -0.5 3.0 51.1%
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -3 0.2 3.2 50.0%
HOUSTON @ CAROLINA -3 0.5 3.5 50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -10.1 -0.1 50.0%
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS -7 -7.6 -0.6 50.0%
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY -4 -1.4 2.6 50.0%
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND 1 -1.1 -2.1 49.7%
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -5.5 -2.1 3.4 48.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ PITTSBURGH -5.5 -0.7 4.8 47.3%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

8 comments:

fiftytwopointfour said...

Welcome back, Jaime, and good start! I've been monitoring you for a couple seasons and now I see you are welcoming our picks in these comments. My picks are 95% statistics-based, with small adjustments made for things like injuries to top players.

Week 2:
> Jets +7
> Jaguars +6
> Raiders +6

Picks for every game - both against the spread and total points scored are on my blog: http://fiftytwopointfour.wordpress.com/

johnbart said...

Here are my model numbers on your picks:

ARI -3.0
DET +2.5
NYG -3.8

So the only one my numbers see value in is the NYG bet. I'm still only dealing with leans this week to give the numbers a bit more time to settle.

Brock Landers said...

Vegas Estimate Prediction-Vegas
ST LOUIS @ WASHINGTON 3.5 15 11.5
BALTIMORE @ OAKLAND 5.5 15 9.5
DALLAS @ PHILADELPHIA -5.5 4 9.5
HOUSTON @ CAROLINA -3 5 8
TENNESSEE @ CLEVELAND 1 -6 -7
ARIZONA @ CHICAGO 1.5 7 5.5
NY JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS -7 -12 5
TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS -10 -6 4
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA -3 0 3
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE 6 9 3
SAN DIEGO @ CINCINNATI -3 -6 -3
SAN FRANCISCO @ PITTSBURGH -5.5 -7 -1.5
DENVER @ KANSAS CITY -3 -4 -1
ATLANTA @ NY GIANTS -2.5 -3 0.5
SEATTLE @ GREEN BAY -3.5 -4 0.5
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO 1 1 0

3-2 last week, Top 5 plays, St Louis, Baltimore, Dallas, Houston and Arizona

RealLine said...

Still no full picks until week 3. The following are unofficial leans:

NE (PK)
CIN (-3.0)
TB(+9.5)
PIT(-6.5)
JAC(+5.5)

Leans went 3-2 last week for us.

Proost!

johnbart said...

RealLine,

Are you part of a pro group or do you just wear a horse shoe around your neck?

RealLine said...

We are best considered "semi-pro" :)

We have a robust set of math models in addition to some standard handicapping approaches but we aren't part of a major betting syndicate. We bet our own money on games but nothing to the scale of the large groups.

Going 5-0 on a Sunday is nice but we're not that good. No one is that good. The bad weeks will come. It's all about the long run and trying to hit ~60% over multiple seasons. You can't get too up or down on any given game or week. You also can't believe in horse shoes. :)

We have NYJ (+7) as a final lean for Monday night.

Jaime Brugueras said...

I like your answer. Others always go 3-0 or 5-0 every time they sent an email. Part of what I do here is show exactly how I do without hiding anything. I didn't do so well this week which brings me back to square one . I guess we start betting on week 3 :)

Jaime Brugueras said...

I've been traveling, back home now. Picks coming tonight