I hope people cleaned up (and made up losses) last week. I personally had a close to do or die parlay that paid big time. The Super Bowl pick is not an easy one given I personally and the predictive model are not picking the defending champs. There are a few things that worry me: Seattle's passing defense, being there last year, the inflated ball scandal, Pats losing last two Super Bowl appearances, Lynch. But there are others that I like: Brady, Belichick, 3-time champs, offense, Seattle defensive injuries. Regardless, I go with the numbers and they're pointing at NE. Shop around, you might save a point and get them at pick'em.
Since my models have home field advantage as a variable, I ran it twice as if the game was in NE or SEA. Regardless, the results were preferring New England. The confidence number was hard to calculate. It was above 58% when assuming NE at home but close to 54 if away. So basically what you see below is the average. As you see, normally in the regular season, this would be a no bet. But c'mon, this is the Super Bow. So this is how we're finishing the season.
Going with 20% of bankroll which makes a $1500 point spread bet for the Super Bowl game Feb 1st in Arizona.
Finally, I want to thank everyone for the positive and constructive comments. I will continue to learn, improve and enjoy doing this for next year. Until then..Go Patriots!
| Game | Vegas Line | Estimate | Prediction-Vegas | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEW ENGLAND - SEATTLE | 1 | 8.4 | 7.4 | 56.3% |
How to read the table:
- Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
- Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
- Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
- Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.
