2014 NFL Betting Picks - Wildcard Playoffs

Pick 1: Baltimore +3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Indianapolis -4 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Arizona +6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick

Down to 50% now after 4 losing weeks in a row. This is my worst streak in 7 years. What the hell, there is still time to make up and come out on top. The playoffs are here! In the four wildcard games, three of them have high confidence probability of betting. I'm personally not confident with any of them given the record of the last five weeks, but at the same time have to trust the system that has worked well in the past 7 years. Personally don't like Arizona given the change in QBs but they could still lose but at less the 6.5 points. The Steelers are hot but I like Baltimore winning in the playoffs. Finally, Indi has a lot to prove and hopefully comes out on top. The spread in the Dallas game seems right on target and it's a no bet. Going to 30% of bankroll for the rest of the playoffs. That makes a $700 a game for this week. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH -3.5 2.2 5.7 58.9%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS -4 -7.1 -3.1 58.1%
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA -6.5 2.9 9.4 57.0%
DETROIT @ DALLAS -7 -5.2 1.8 50.4%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

10 comments:

RJW said...

I guess the lines changed since you set these, I'm seeing 0.5 off on all but the Carolina Arizona game.
Classy move to list your picks, hopefully that turns your luck and you go on a roll to end the year.
Good luck with your picks!

My Playoff Picks are at www.nflocksmith.com

Jonathon Grant said...

Jaime - did you purposely post all your picks?

Jaime Brugueras said...

This week I used sportsbook's spread.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Yes. If they go south again, I would have to provide money back asguaranteed. if they don't it might be a teaser to get just the playoff picks.

johnbart said...

Tough picking against home teams in the playoffs. As a Bengals fan I hope the road dogs do well :)

Here are my lines on the wildcard games:

@PIT (-4.7)
@CAR (-4.8)
@DAL (-8.8)
@IND (-5.3)

My numbers like the home faves a bit more than Vegas except for Carolina.

Best of luck all.

Jonathon Grant said...

The winner of the SuperContest is on Arizona+6.

Raju Korotana said...

I love how as soon as you started charging for picks they all went down hill. Maybe tell your wife that.

Jaime Brugueras said...

Ignore the haters

Jonathon Grant said...

Come on Jaime, you studied statistics. Correlation = causation is taught by 2nd year of your bachelors.

Jonathon Grant said...

Supercontest winners on DET+6.5. Let's see if they can redeem themselves.