2014 Betting Picks - Conference Playoffs

Pick 1: New England -7 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Green Bay +7.5 correct NFL point spread pick

I won't say much. Well maybe that if I had put age in my model maybe it would've told me that Payton Manning should retire. Good bet on Seattle which needed that defensive touchdown I was hoping for all night. Two good games next week. I'll send you my picks early so you can see where the line is moving so you can make your bet when best. Going with 30% of bankroll which makes a $1100 bet for each of the conference championship game.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -9.9 -2.9 58.7%
GREEN BAY @ SEATTLE -7.5 -4.1 3.4 58.1%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

7 comments:

johnbart said...

My lines for this week:

@SEA (-3.8)
@NE (-5.8)

Surprisingly it's showing that Seattle is overvalued by a fair bit. With that said this is one situation where I don't think you can trust the raw numbers. If you look deeper into the numbers GB just doesn't match up well scrimmage wise. It's a big enough problem that I would lay off of the game.

The best bet of the week is probably the under in the IND@NE game especially if it goes up from 54.

Best of luck all.

RJW said...

Good luck, should both be exciting games!
My Playoff Picks are at www.nflocksmith.com

Adrian Villarreal said...

Even though were still in the negative we won't get refunds because his picks went over 50%. Definitely won't purchase or use next year. I should have known better your only as good as your most recent accomplishments , I don't care what you did 2-3 even 7 years ago. Congrats guy for those who paid your down money and 200.00 from Jaime!

Anthony Hardy said...

adrian...why would he refund you...he delivered what you paid for....nobody forced you to place the bets.

Adrian Villarreal said...

That was the whole point of this Anthony was to bet a make a little money , why else would you pay for picks.

Anthony Hardy said...

ya and if his picks went under the percentage he stated there would be a refund. why would he refund otherwise. it would be nice but he shouldnt have to. hopefully you bet the picks from last week that both paid off.

johnbart said...

I understand why someone would be upset about paying for picks that don't win them money. But the reality is that sports betting is gambling. If you expect to never lose money then you're playing the wrong game.

This isn't a case of a tout making false claims. The results for these picks going back to 2008 are right there on the web page.

If you did the math to figure out the long term results for that whole period you'll find that it turns into winning 54.4% of the time. That does beat the spread over the long run, which is hard to do, but it also means that it's not guaranteed to win every year. It looks like the SD of the winning percentage per year is around 6.4 so you can expect some big swings any given year.

For me to consider betting on picks I look for them being winners at least 58% of the time in the long run. This means 58% on picks that aren't included in the creation of the math model. If you count games used in the creation of the model then you can't trust the numbers due to model fitting and other biases.

The results from this years picks totally fit in the middle of the expected range so I don't see anything done wrong or unexpected. Yes it sucks for everyone involved that the picks didn't win 60% of the time this year but it's still possible they will next year.