2014 Betting Picks - Divisional Playoffs

Pick 1: Seattle -1 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Denver -7 incorrect NFL point spread pick

The best analysis I've read about the divisional playoff that will leave you dazed and confused is this one. This analysis suggests you should bet all the underdogs. Some of the games have contradicting stats though. The Cowboys are 7-1 ATS but the Packers are 22-8. Peyton Manning is 10-10 in his last playoff games while the Colts are 1-4-1 in their last 6 games. Carolina has scored one TD in the last 28 drives against Seattle but double digit favorites in playoffs have 4 of the last 6. Finally, I couldn't find any contradicting stats he mentioned on the Ravens/Patriots game. That's Matt's analysis not mine. I have two picks and based on the results I might add Dallas. Going to 30% of bankroll again. That makes a $1200 a game for this week. Good luck!

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
CAROLINA @ SEATTLE -11 -16.3 -5.3 59.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ DENVER -7 -10.0 -3.0 58.7%
DALLAS @ GREEN BAY -6 -3.8 2.2 54.0%
BALTIMORE @ NEW ENGLAND -7 -9.5 -2.5 52.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.


RJW said…
Nice picks last week!
My Playoff Picks are at www.nflocksmith.com
Good luck
johnbart said…
My lines this week:

@NE (-4.7)
@SEA (-9.9)
@GB (-7.3)
@DEN (-4.7)

Not a surprise that my line shows both NE and DEN as overvalued. +7 is a tough number since overall win percentages on that number suffer from pushes. If either hit +7.5 I'd be all over that but it doesn't look likely for either game.

I'm most likely sitting the week out unless the IND@DEN total number goes up from where it is at 54.

Best of luck all.
johnbart said…
Huge line move in IND@DEN. Anyone have any insights into it moving to -9.5. That's a crap tonne of action on DEN.
johnbart said…
I hope everyone got some action on IND, probably the easiest money for the playoffs. But given the line move it's probably the books saying that this morning :)