2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 9

Pick 1: San Diego +1.5
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3
Pick 3: Philadelphia -2
Pick 4: Kansas City -9.5
Two losing weeks in a row starts to get me a bit nervous. Regardless of the long-term strategy, we need to pick up the pace this week with 4 solid picks. I felt that all three picks last week were the right ones given the circumstances and the data. This week I'm also feeling comfortable with the games that were selected by the probability of covering the spread as well as the final pick. Below you will find the free nfl point spread picks for the non-premium picks and members should be receiving the premium picks shortly.

This week we again use 18% of bankroll split evenly across our 4 premium games giving us a bet of about $420 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 9 of the NFL:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SAN DIEGO @ MIAMI	-1	3.9	4.9	61.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NY GIANTS	3	8.4	5.4	60.8%
PHILADELPHIA @ HOUSTON	2.5	5.5	3.0	58.5%
NY JETS @ KANSAS CITY	-10	-23.6	-13.6	57.5%
OAKLAND @ SEATTLE	-15	-20.0	-5.0	54.3%
DENVER @ NEW ENGLAND	3	6.3	3.3	54.1%
WASHINGTON @ MINNESOTA	0	2.9	2.9	50.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CLEVELAND	-6.5	-5.8	0.7	50.0%
BALTIMORE @ PITTSBURGH	0	2.3	2.3	50.0%
ARIZONA @ DALLAS	-3.5	0.1	3.6	49.7%
NEW ORLEANS @ CAROLINA	3	-5.0	-8.0	49.1%
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI	-11	-18.5	-7.5	48.4%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 8

Pick 1: Cincinnati -1
Pick 2: Indianapolis -3.5
Pick 3: Green Bay +1
Everybody calm down. That's what my friend reminded me to do after Sunday night. I was extremely disappointed with last week's results, as you probably were. The important thing to remember is that this is a long term strategy and the goal is to win money in the long run (end of the year). Although at this point we're back were we started, there is still a lot of football to be played and good money to potentially win. I've been here before and have bounced back. This week I removed the night games from being premium to provide the maximum number of free NFL point spread picks .

This week we use 18% of bankroll again split evenly across our 3 premium games giving us a bet of about $600 per game. Below are the computer-based NFL point spread predictions for week 8:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI	-1	-6.0	-5.0	65.7%
INDIANAPOLIS @ PITTSBURGH	3.5	9.5	6.0	62.7%
GREEN BAY @ NEW ORLEANS	-1	3.0	4.0	59.6%
SEATTLE @ CAROLINA	5	2.6	-2.4	55.3%
CHICAGO @ NEW ENGLAND	-6.5	-8.0	-1.5	54.3%
DETROIT - ATLANTA	4	5.5	1.5	53.4%
BUFFALO @ NY JETS	-3	-0.5	2.5	52.3%
ST LOUIS @ KANSAS CITY	-7	-12.7	-5.7	51.4%
MIAMI @ JACKSONVILLE	5.5	5.9	0.4	50.0%
SAN DIEGO @ DENVER	-8	-7.7	0.3	50.0%
WASHINGTON @ DALLAS	-10	-10.4	-0.4	50.0%
OAKLAND @ CLEVELAND	-7	-4.5	2.5	50.0%
PHILADELPHIA @ ARIZONA	-2.5	-1.3	1.2	49.3%
MINNESOTA @ TAMPA BAY	-3	-7.4	-4.4	48.6%
HOUSTON @ TENNESSEE	1.5	-0.6	-2.1	48.5%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 7

Pick 1: Seattle -7
Pick 2: San Francisco +6.5
Pick 3: Miami +4
Pick 4: Buffalo -5.5

After spending plenty of time doing research and enjoying the games (did you witness the Denver Vegas moment?!), my wife asked that I sell the picks. She understands the value that a VP in Analytics can provide to sports investors so she's encouraging me to do so (or else). I have posted 5 Reasons Why You Want to Buy NFLpickles' Picks on the subscription page. They include my 100% guarantee, my record, experience, transparency, focus on NFL point spreads and affordable prices.

For only $199 you get all the picks until the end of the season + playoffs. These type of picks go for about $500 in other places. These places try to sell you picks in every sport you can imagine by sports fanatics and not experienced data scientists.

Get ALL 2014 NFLpickles' Point Spread Picks 100% Guarantee - If all picks go under 50% ATS, I'll give you your money back
Many of you have followed me since I started in 2007 and know my record: 4 winning seasons in the past 6 years, and one break even. All my stats by year are on the side bar and you can access every pick I've made since 2007, that's transparency. Do notice that I've kept the majority of the picks free, but premium picks are only provided to members.

We raise the bankroll this week to use 18% of bankroll split evenly across 4 games giving us a bet of $490 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 7:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
SEATTLE @ ST LOUIS	7	11.1	4.1	61.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ DENVER	-6.5	-2.7	3.8	58.2%
MIAMI @ CHICAGO	-4	-1.5	2.5	58.1%
MINNESOTA @ BUFFALO	-5.5	-9.8	-4.3	58.0%
ARIZONA @ OAKLAND	4	8.8	4.8	56.7%
KANSAS CITY @ SAN DIEGO	-4	-3.0	1.0	55.5%
CLEVELAND @ JACKSONVILLE	6	8	2/0	55.3%
NY JETS @ NEW ENGLAND *	-10	-14.3	-4.3	54.3%
TENNESSEE @ WASHINGTON	-6	-7.2	-1.2	53.3%
HOUSTON @ PITTSBURGH *	-3.5	-3.7	-0.2	50.0%
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT	-3	-3.3	-0.3	50.0%
CAROLINA @ GREEN BAY	-7	-5.0	2.0	50.0%
CINCINNATI @ INDIANAPOLIS	-3.5	-1.5	2.0	48.3%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS	-6.5	-10.2	-3.7	47.8%
ATLANTA @ BALTIMORE	-7	-11.0	-4.0	47.8%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.

2014 NFL Betting Picks - Week 6

Pick 1: Indianapolis -3
Pick 2: Pittsburgh +2.5
Pick 3: San Diego -7
Pick 4: Denver -9
Pick 5: Philadelphia -2.5

Great week last week, although not perfect. Everyone tuned in to #MNF? Classic Vegas finish; I was surprised it had to go to that and Seattle didn't blow out that game earlier. San Diego shutting out the Jets is the kind of prediction that I want my models to capture. Predicting blow outs should in theory be easier. Outliers, injuries, among other factors make this a statistical hard problem.

This week we try to predict two blowouts, San Diego again and Denver (Jets weakness again). Interestingly, we also have 4 visiting teams vs only one home team. Thursday and Sunday night should be fun. Good luck everyone!

We continue using 15% of bankroll split evenly across games giving us a bet of $320 per game. Here is the full list of NFL betting spread predictions for week 6:

Game	Vegas Line	Estimate	Prediction-Vegas	Confidence
INDIANAPOLIS @ HOUSTON	3	8.7	5.7	59.7%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND	-2.5	3.1	5.6	59.0%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND	7	18.9	11.9	58.4%
DENVER @ NY JETS	9	19.2	10.2	57.1%
NY GIANTS @ PHILADELPHIA	-2.5	-10.2	-7.7	57.1%
NEW ENGLAND @ BUFFALO	3	-0.4	-3.4	55.8%
BALTIMORE @ TAMPA BAY	3.5	1.9	-1.6	55.3%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS	3.5	6.0	2.5	52.6%
WASHINGTON @ ARIZONA	-3	-5.6	-2.6	52.1%
CAROLINA @ CINCINNATI	-7	-6.8	0.2	50.0%
CHICAGO @ ATLANTA	-3	0.6	3.6	50.0%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE	-6	-10.0	-4.0	50.0%
GREEN BAY @ MIAMI	3.5	-4.1	-7.6	49.6%
DALLAS @ SEATTLE	-8	-11.7	-3.7	49.5%
DETROIT @ MINNESOTA	2	4.1	2.1	48.3%

How to read the table:

• Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the point spread favors the HOME team
• Estimate: NFL Pickles' point spread prediction
• Pred-Vegas: Subtraction: POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover point spread.
• Confidence: The probability that the point spread pick is on the correct side.