2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 17

No Picks this Week

Picks and bets are never donefor week 17. It's always a crazy week. As much as I would like to try to make up for lost ground, I'll keep my composure and save the energy for the playoffs. Still, my computer NFL spread picks I always post and are listed below. Happy new year every one!































































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
WASHINGTON @ PHILADELPHIA-8.5-2.46.166.7%
CHICAGO @ MINNESOTA-1.53.24.763.3%
DALLAS @ NY GIANTS-31.54.558.5%
SEATTLE @ ARIZONA-30.93.958.5%
BUFFALO @ NEW ENGLAND-10-7.52.554.4%
TAMPA BAY @ ATLANTA-11-14-353.3%
SAN DIEGO @ OAKLAND-33652.9%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ST LOUIS10.518.58.052.0%
KANSAS CITY @ DENVER-3-4.9-1.951.3%
CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS-7.5-14.1-6.651.1%
NY JETS @ MIAMI-3-5-250.4%
DETROIT @ GREEN BAY3-10.1-13.150.4%
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE-3.5-3.550.4%
BALTIMORE @ CINCINNATI2-10.850.3%
TENNESSEE @ HOUSTON27550.1%
PITTSBURGH @ CLEVELAND710-3.050.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 16

Pick 1: Jets -3 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: 49ers -2 PUSH
Pick 3: Bengals -4.5 correct NFL point spread pick

For the last week of the season, we post our picks. We then come back for the playoffs. Ideally, we have a good week this week to come to the playoffs with a sniff of hope.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $115 per game for a total of $345.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 16 of the 2011 NFL season.























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NY GIANTS @ NY JETS-3-9.5-6.572.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ SEATTLE24.52.565.3%
ARIZONA @ CINCINNATI-4.5-7-3.564.3%
MINNESOTA @ WASHINGTON-6-7.6-1.658.0%
DENVER @ BUFFALO30.5-2.554.5%
HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS614.58.552.9%
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND-10-15.6-5.652.9%
JACKSONVILLE @ TENNESSEE-8-9.5-1.552.0%
ST LOUIS @ PITTSBURGH-13-15.2-2.251.9%
OAKLAND @ KANSAS CITY-1.53.34.851.3%
CHICAGO @ GREEN BAY-12-11.30.750.6%
CLEVELAND @ BALTIMORE-14-14.6-0.650.4%
SAN DIEGO @ DETROIT-2.5-3.1-0.649.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ DALLAS-3-7.0-4.049.0%
TAMPA BAY @ CAROLINA-7-10-348.3%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: Green Bay -13.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cincinnati -7 PUSH
Pick 3: Tennessee -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit -1 PUSH

This week four favorite teams on the road are picked. Sorry for the late post, almost didn't get it in. Glad I did. I'm banking this week on these strong teams beating the crap out of these home teams that have no chance to be in the playoffs.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season.
















































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ KANSAS CITY13.521.07.560.4%
CINCINNATI @ ST LOUIS714.47.459.5%
TENNESSEE @ INDIANAPOLIS6.513.67.158.5%
DETROIT @ OAKLAND17658.3%
WASHINGTON @ NY GIANTS-6.5-4.52.055.6%
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA7.511.54.052.0%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO-3.5-5.1-1.652.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER7.54.5-3.052.0%
NY JETS @ PHILADELPHIA-34.47.451.3%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO2.53.91.450.7%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO-1.5-9.6-8.150.1%
CLEVELAND @ ARIZONA-6.5-6.00.550.1%
PITTSBURGH @ SAN FRANCISCO-33650%
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON-6-9.9-3.949.5%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 14

Pick 1: New Orleans -3.5 correct NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: St Louis +9.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: San Francisco -4 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 4: Houston +3 correct NFL point spread pick

As we continue to sink this ship, I think less about these picks and whether they are good or not. The only thing I'm thinking about is what can I learn this year that I would be able to apply statistically into the algorithm.

If I think about these picks, I would probably stay away from Houston because all the injuries and St Louis because they've covered very few times this year. But most times that I say things like that the opposite happens. We'll stick with these 4 visiting teams and bet they will all win big and give us, believe it or not, our first winning week.

This week we'll up at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 14 of the 2011 NFL season.























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
NEW ORLEANS @ TENNESSEE3.573.559.9%
ST LOUIS @ SEATTLE-9.5-81.558.5%
SAN FRANCISCO @ ARIZONA47.63.658.3%
HOUSTON @ CINCINNATI-32.35.358.1%
OAKLAND @ GREEN BAY-11.5-8.23.356.5%
MINNESOTA @ DETROIT-10-14-454.4%
KANSAS CITY @ NY JETS-10.5-16-5.554.4%
TAMPA BAY @ JACKSONVILLE2.5-3-5.553.9%
PHILADELPHIA @ MIAMI-3-5-252.8%
CHICAGO @ DENVER-3.5-6-2.552.8%
NEW ENGLAND @ WASHINGTON812.54.552.0%
INDIANAPOLIS @ BALTIMORE-16.5-18.7-2.251.9%
BUFFALO @ SAN DIEGO-70.37.351.4%
ATLANTA @ CAROLINA34.91.950.0%
NY GIANTS @ DALLAS-3.536.549.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.

2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 13

Pick 1: Buffalo -1.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Dallas -4.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: NY Jets -3 correct NFL point spread pick

I am very disappointed with the results this year. Although a friend told me there is still a lot of football left, and he's right, by week 13 I should've seen signs of success. In other years, we were already up in the 20-30% ROI range. The model might need to be revisited in the off-season, but at this point all I can do is sit back and hope for a great success in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

This week we'll stay at 18% of bankroll. Giving us $145 per game for a total of $435.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 13 of the 2011 NFL season.






























































































































GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
TENNESSEE @ BUFFALO-1.5-3.2-1.760.0%
DALLAS @ ARIZONA4.57.93.458.7%
NY JETS @ WASHINGTON37.14.158.7%
PHILADELPHIA @ SEATTLE30.9-2.152.5%
SAN DIEGO @ JACKSONVILLE31.7-1.352.5%
OAKLAND @ MIAMI-38.211.252.3%
CAROLINA @ TAMPA BAY-3-4.9-1.952.0%
KANSAS CITY @ CHICAGO-7-9.3-2.352.0%
DENVER @ MINNESOTA-1.50.62.152.0%
DETROIT @ NEW ORLEANS-9-7.11.951.9%
CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH-6.54.511.051.8%
GREEN BAY @ NY GIANTS6.517.010.551.4%
ST LOUIS @ SAN FRANCISCO-13-10350.5%
INDIANAPOLIS @ NEW ENGLAND-20-28.9-8.949.5%
ATLANTA @ HOUSTON2.552.549.3%
BALTIMORE @ CLEVELAND6.5103.547.0%


How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.