2011 NFL Point Spread Picks Week 15

Pick 1: Green Bay -13.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 2: Cincinnati -7 PUSH
Pick 3: Tennessee -6.5 incorrect NFL point spread pick
Pick 3: Detroit -1 PUSH

This week four favorite teams on the road are picked. Sorry for the late post, almost didn't get it in. Glad I did. I'm banking this week on these strong teams beating the crap out of these home teams that have no chance to be in the playoffs.

This week we'll stay at 20% of bankroll. Giving us $100 per game for a total of $400.

Here are the NFLpickles free point spread picks for Week 15 of the 2011 NFL season.

GameVegas LineEstimatePrediction-VegasConfidence
GREEN BAY @ KANSAS CITY13.521.07.560.4%
CINCINNATI @ ST LOUIS714.47.459.5%
NEW ORLEANS @ MINNESOTA7.511.54.052.0%
SEATTLE @ CHICAGO-3.5-5.1-1.652.0%
NEW ENGLAND @ DENVER7.54.5-3.052.0%
BALTIMORE @ SAN DIEGO2.53.91.450.7%
MIAMI @ BUFFALO-1.5-9.6-8.150.1%
CLEVELAND @ ARIZONA-6.5-6.00.550.1%
CAROLINA @ HOUSTON-6-9.9-3.949.5%

How to read the table:
  • Vegas Line: A NEGATIVE number implies the spread favors the HOME team
  • Estimate: NFL pickles spread estimate
  • Pred-Vegas: Subtraction of the previous two. POSITIVE implies VISITING team will cover spread.
  • Confidence: The probability that the spread pick is on the correct side.


I got Seahawks +3.5, Redskins +6.5, Texans -6.5, Buccaneers +7 (already lost) and Saints -7.

Good luck!
Jaime said…
This is now starting to become embarrassing.
Cameron Askew said…
I'm a computer scientist, my specialty is data mining & predictive modeling.

I'm currently building a back-propagation neural network to predict NFL games against the spread.

I think my program is promising but of course there are many hurdles to jump with such a complex problem.

I'd be interested to know which variables you've found most helpful.

One thing I'm doing that's different than you is that you are attempting to predict your own spread and comparing that to the Vegas spread. My program uses the spread itself as a variable --- I'm not trying to predict the spread myself but instead trying to find when and how the spread has been historically imperfect.

Anyways, I could go on for hours, but if you'd like to chat, you can e-mail me at askew.cameron@gmail.com.

Best of luck!